Surveys on the Schleswig-Holstein state elections in 2022: a clear result is imminent
Created: 05/08/2022, 06:17
By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi
In the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, current polls point to a clear winner.
A clear trend emerges.
State election Schleswig-Holstein 2022: The new government of Schleswig-Holstein will be elected on Sunday.
A loose lead
for the
CDU
according to the survey: According to the latest surveys, the CDU is well ahead of the SPD and should emerge as the winner of the election.
Dissolution
of the
Jamaica coalition
?: Unlike in 2017, according to the polls, the election results could now also be enough for a two-party alliance.
Munich/Kiel – The state elections in Schleswig-Holstein are scheduled for Sunday (May 8).
A so-called Jamaica coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP has governed the federal state for five years under Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU).
It is currently the only such constellation in a federal state.
The CDU won the 2017 election from the opposition with a lead of a little more than five percentage points over the SPD, which had previously ruled with the Greens and the South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) in Kiel.
The current developments in the election in Schleswig-Holstein can be read in the election ticker.
The Greens as well as the FDP, AfD and SSW came into the state parliament with a considerable gap to the two leading parties.
The left failed at the five percent hurdle.
The AfD entered the Kiel parliament with the strength of a faction, but lost this status due to divisions.
State election Schleswig-Holstein 2022: According to the survey, the CDU has a loose lead – well ahead of the SPD
For the CDU, Prime Minister Günther is the top candidate, while the SPD relies on the former head of the Kiel State Chancellery, Thomas Losse-Müller.
The Greens appear with a dual leadership of State Finance Minister Monika Heinold and State Parliament Vice President Aminata Touré, the FDP with their State Minister of Economics Bernd Buchholz.
The SSW relies on parliamentary group leader Lars Harms, the AfD election campaign is led by the member of parliament Jörg Nobis.
On Sunday it will now be seen whether the CDU can continue to govern in Schleswig-Holstein with Günther.
After the severe setback in Saarland with the victory of the SPD candidate Anke Rehlinger and a week before the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, it is also about a federal political signal.
The Christian Democrats should be reassured, however: the latest polls unanimously point to a clear victory for the CDU.
The forecasts and projections for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein can be found in this ticker.
In various surveys, the party comes to 36 to 38 percent.
The SPD is 19 to 20 percent, so it only achieves around half the vote share of the CDU.
The Greens are 16 to 17 percent, the FDP comes to seven to nine percent.
The AfD is in the polls at five to six percent, the SSW, which as a minority party is already exempt from the five percent hurdle, comes to five percent.
According to current figures, the left would miss the entry into the state parliament again.
Survey on the election in Schleswig-Holstein 2022: Dissolution of the Jamaica coalition?
According to the latest election poll, the signs in Kiel point to political continuity: the mandate to form a government clearly lies with Günther and the CDU.
Unlike in 2017, the Christian Democrats could continue to govern with just one partner.
An alliance of CDU and Greens would have a secure majority.
According to a survey, it could possibly also be enough for a two-party alliance with the FDP.
A coalition of the CDU and SPD would also be mathematically possible, but that is considered an unlikely option.
According to the polls, a government led by the SPD would only be possible if the Social Democrats, from the position of the clearly inferior second strongest force, forged a four-way alliance with the Greens, FDP and SSW.
That only seems conceivable in theory.
Surveys and forecasts for the Schleswig-Holstein state elections in 2022: the majority are satisfied with the Jamaica coalition
The Jamaica coalition enjoys great support from the population of Schleswig-Holstein.
According to a survey by the NDR on April 21 (1,172 respondents, survey period: April 13 - 19, 2022), 75 percent of the population are very satisfied or satisfied with the work of the coalition.
In the same survey, 76 percent of those questioned stated that they were satisfied with Günther.
The Greens candidate Monika Heinold follows the CDU candidate with 40 percent.
For the SPD candidate Losse-Müller, the picture is bleak: With 15 percent, he is in 5th place and behind the candidates of the FDP and the SSW.
The approachable and down-to-earth Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther (CDU), is the favorite in the upcoming state elections on May 8, 2022. © Christian Charisius/dpa
State election Schleswig-Holstein 2022: All information on Merkur.de - polls and results
On
Merkur.de
we keep you up to date with our tickers about surveys and forecasts as well as about the results of the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein.
You haven't been able to make a decision yet?
The Wahl-O-Mat could be a useful help at this point.
There is also
more useful information about the state elections on
Merkur.de .
In addition to more detailed information about the candidates, we also inform you about election notification and postal voting.
You will also find out when the first results can be expected in Schleswig-Holstein.
(bb with material from afp)
