This should have been the high point of Russia's show of force in commemoration of the victory of the former USSR over Nazi Germany in 1945. This Monday, the Russian flypast was canceled due to bad weather conditions according to Moscow, thus depriving the spectators present of nearly 77 fighter planes but especially of the overflight of the Russian capital by the Ilyouchine Il-80, nicknamed the “plane of the apocalypse”.
According to several Russian media, the flypasts in Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Samara were also canceled due to bad weather.
But is the weather really to blame?
An audible version
For General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, this hypothesis is quite plausible: “I think it is plausible.
The planes were present during the rehearsals, and it should be known that the flight at low altitude above a city during a parade is to be watched closely and must be the subject of many precautions.
It may also happen that we cancel certain air parades for these reasons, this could in particular be the case during the July 14 parade.
We could have asked the question if no rehearsal had been carried out.
However, in this specific case, the planes were present.
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For Christine Dugoin-Clément, geopolitical analyst and author of the book "L'Ukraine, entre déchirements et recompositions", the option of bad weather is also possible: "We can have doubts about this version, but it remains audible, because rather classic.
Cancellations of flight operations are frequent.
Should we believe it?
That's another question.
According to the local weather forecast, light showers fell on Moscow and a light breeze accompanied the clouds present in the Moscow sky.
Several international media, notably the Financial Times, including Moscow bureau chief Max Seddon, questioned the official version.
The latter explains that an “absolutely magnificent spring day” reigns over Moscow, screenshot in support.
The flyover portion of the parade has been cancelled, ostensibly over bad weather.
But it looks like an absolutely gorgeous spring day in Moscow 🤔 pic.twitter.com/uOEnSFTNMc
— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 9, 2022
A cluster of clouds, enough to cancel?
Despite these questions, aeronautics expert Bertrand Vilmer explains that a cloud cluster positioned low enough can be enough to cause an aerial overflight to be cancelled: "Planes must have sufficient visibility to make a vertical overflight, to see each other each other, and must be visible from where they are to be seen.
It depends on the "ceiling", the altitude of the clouds.
If these are at 300 or 500 feet and there is less than 1000 meters of visibility, it is reasonable to cancel.
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On the other hand, this cancellation is indeed a blow for the regime of Vladimir Putin.
“The parade is not necessarily made for the whole world, it is above all made to show the Russian people the strength of their army.
They must be aware of the Russian military capabilities, there is the objective of reassuring the population", indicates General Trinquand, before adding: "If all the forces of the Russian army are not present at the parade , it is indeed a small blow.
It is also important to note that the flypast seemed less impressive during rehearsals, there were fewer planes than usual.
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