Extreme heat in India and Pakistan: Experts worried - "This heat wave could kill thousands of people"

Created: 05/10/2022, 20:03

By: Michelle Brey

A person walks through a dried-up river bed of the Yamuna River in India, the water level of which has dropped as a result of the hot weather.

© Manish Swarup/dpa

Just a taste of the future?

Experts are concerned about the extreme heat in India and Pakistan.

A study doesn't bode well either.

New Delhi / Munich - Sunshine and extreme temperatures: Since March, people in India and Pakistan have been suffering from an unprecedented heat wave.

More than a billion people are affected by temperatures above 40 degrees.

But is this weather just a foretaste of a near future of frequent unbearable heat in South Asia?

Climate researchers are not surprised by the extreme weather.

Extreme heat in India and Pakistan: Expert warns urgently

Robert Rohde from the US climate analysis institute Berkeley Earth has warned of the effects of the high temperatures.

"This heatwave could kill thousands of people," he said of the heatwave since March.

It will take some time before the exact number of victims, especially among the elderly and poor, is known.

A German climate researcher recently issued an urgent warning.

Heat waves in India and their impact on people

Mortality from heat in India has increased by more than 60 percent since 1980.

This is according to information from the Indian government.

Most recently, there were heat waves in 2015 and 2019 with many fatalities.

Petteri Taalas, head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), speaks of a "cascade of effects" of the heat on agriculture and water and energy supplies.

In addition, the air quality deteriorates due to the high temperatures and the risk of fire increases.

Heatwave in India and Pakistan no surprise - 'Long warned such disasters are looming'

From the point of view of climate researchers, the increasing heat waves in South Asia are a catastrophe with an announcement.

"I'm surprised that most people are shocked, even though we've long warned them that catastrophes like this are coming," said University of Hawaii biologist Camilo Mora.

"This region of the world and most tropical areas are among the areas most susceptible to heat."

In a widely publicized 2017 study, Mora and his team predicted that by the end of this century, nearly half of the world's population would be exposed to "deadly heat" for at least 20 days a year.

This also applies if global warming were limited to two degrees compared to the pre-industrial age.

However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world is currently (as of May 2022) heading for a warming of 2.8 degrees.

Experts are still examining to what extent the current heat wave in India and Pakistan is due to climate change.

German climate researcher Ulrike Otto said there was "no doubt that climate change is changing the rules of the game when it comes to extreme heat".

The scientist from London's Imperial College added: "What we are seeing now will be normal or cool in a world that is between two and three degrees warmer."

Extreme heat a foretaste of the near future in India and Pakistan

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also predicts "more intense, longer, more frequent heat waves" for India and Pakistan.

Before mankind massively changed the climate with its activities, heat waves like the one now occurring in India occurred every 50 years.

So said Marian Zachariah of Imperial College.

Today, however, this can be expected every four years.

Study predicts record heat wave in India - temperatures of more than 50 degrees

A study published last week in the journal Science, for which Vikki Thompson from the University of Bristol compared the world's worst heat waves since 1960, also speaks in favor of a worsening of the situation in South Asia.

"Statistically, it's likely that a record heatwave will hit India sooner or later," Thompson warns on that basis.

Then temperatures of more than 50 degrees are to be expected.

Climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll from the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology is concerned.

Even with global warming of 1.1 degrees compared to the pre-industrial age, there is an increase in heat waves, floods, storms and droughts in India.

"It's hard for me to envision the impact if the rise in global temperatures doubles."

In Germany, however, people are waiting for the final arrival of summer.

And the first extreme temperatures are also expected in this country.

A heat wave is rolling towards Europe - and is also reaching Munich.