Towards a political drama?
The Knesset plenum will convene today to discuss private member's bills, with a bill to dissolve the Knesset, submitted by the Likud, on the agenda of the plenum.
As of this morning, the law to dissolve the Knesset is expected to be put to a vote in a preliminary reading and the coalition and the opposition are preparing for several scenarios.
In the first scenario, the RAAM will decide that they will not vote - and the Knesset Dispersal Law will pass a preliminary reading. The move will greatly embarrass Bennett and Lapid and escalate the crisis between the RAAM and the coalition.
The big question in recent days has revolved around the RAAM party and dealt mainly with the question - whether Mansour Abbas and his party members will help the coalition prevent a loss in the bill to dissolve the Knesset. On the Temple Mount on the part of the Jews.
The question now arises whether, despite the freeze, Bennett and Lapid will succeed in convincing Abbas to help the coalition prevent the passage of the Knesset Dispersal Law in a preliminary reading and reach the Knesset.
The first day of the summer session: Bennett and Lapid in a joint message // Photo: Yair Lapid's Twitter page
The Shura Council, made up of clerics from the Islamic Movement, convened last night for a long and tense discussion on the future of Ra'am in the coalition. In retirement, against the background of disagreements over the Temple Mount issue.
Although it appears that RAAM will not resign, the freeze on coalition membership is expected to continue and until the last minute RAAM may surprise with a vote to dissolve the Knesset.
In the second scenario, the coalition will carry out an exercise, in which Mansour Abbas will issue a statement that Ra'am will not vote on the Knesset dissolution law, but will actually coordinate with Lapid. After it has already gone to the polls.
Knesset Plenum, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
It should be noted that the bill to dissolve the Knesset rises to the plenum for a preliminary reading, which means that even if it passes, the opposition will have to obtain a majority of 61 MKs and pass the law in three more readings to dissolve the Knesset and lead to elections. Official Legislative Procedure - The opposition can settle for a simple majority to pass the law.
In the third scenario, the opposition will withdraw the Knesset dissolution law at the last minute due to the fear that it will fall and there will be no clear majority for its passage in a preliminary reading.
That is, another statistic that is taken into account is the risk that the opposition is willing to take.
If the law falls, it is ostensibly not possible to raise it again for half a year.
Although there is a legal opinion that states that such a substantive law for democracy, which sets the date of the election, there is a possibility to re-put it to a vote signed by 61 MKs. M will not be in the Knesset plenum.
The coalition tries to calm the spirits and says: "This is only a preliminary reading, even if it passes we can delay it in the Knesset committee and the opposition will not have 61 MKs later to pass the law." However, the coalition admits that If the opposition raises the law and it falls in the end - it will be an even harder blow to them. "On the other hand, the opposition claims that: "There is no reason to fight for the survival of the government anymore."
Meanwhile, despite last night's cooperation in legislation with Bennett and Lapid, the joint list announced last night that it would vote in favor of the Knesset dissolution law.
Shura Council Meeting, Photo: Gideon Markovich
Another interesting point is what MK Silman will do. The opposition says that it does not need to vote in favor of dissolving the Knesset, arguing that a majority of 61 is not needed to pass it in a preliminary reading, so it is enough that the Prime Minister will not vote and the law will pass without it.
Therefore, from the point of view of the opposition, it is better that she does not participate in the vote so as not to risk that her right will take the opportunity to declare her retired.
Will the plenum vote to dissolve the Knesset?
Two days since the summer conference opened: the coalition is likely to undergo a significant shake-up today.
If the members of RAAM decide to continue their "membership freeze" in the coalition, and the Likud decides to bring the law to dissolve the Knesset to a vote, the coalition may lose the vote, only two days after the Knesset returns to activity.
The Likud put the law to dissolve the Knesset on the agenda, and only next to the vote in the plenum will they decide whether to put it to the vote or withdraw it.
The danger for the opposition lies in the fact that if the law goes to a vote and does not pass - it must not be raised again for about six months, except in special circumstances.
The Likud will closely monitor the position of members of the RAAM party. If they stay in the plenum, it is likely that the Likud will not take a risk. MK Yoav Kish of the Likud said yesterday that "the law should only be passed if there is complete certainty that it will pass. "Live on Facebook when it's on Mount Hermon - then you can go up. You need zero risks for it to go up. If not, we will wait for another finger or another party to support it."
The coalition broadcasts that they are not bothered by the law to dissolve the Knesset.
"There are three possibilities: the law rises and falls; the opposition is afraid and does not raise the law; and the law passes," a senior coalition official told Israel Today, "We can deal with the three scenarios. We have the tools to delay him. He will go to the Knesset committee and stay there for six months. Then he will go up for a first reading, then we will delay him for a few more months. It will not go easily for them. It will not happen".
He said, "The big concern is that if the law is passed, a dynamic will begin that is difficult to control."
Meanwhile, as reported yesterday in "Israel Today", the Shura Council convened in Kafr Qassem to decide on its continuation in the coalition, and as a result also to decide on the continuation of the entire government.
The coalition claimed yesterday: "We did a strong job before the Shura council convened. It will be fine."
The Likud said that "the fact that the future government of the current government depends on the Shura Council of the Muslim Brotherhood is another historic slump to which Bennett is dragging us. A government that depends on supporters of terrorism cannot fight terrorism."
Participated in the preparation of the article: Yehuda Schlesinger
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