War in Ukraine: martial law, nuclear, total invasion... what US intelligence anticipates

They have already made it possible to avoid the assassination of Volodymyr Zelensky, helped to sink the warship Moskva or even revealed the position of certain generals of the Russian army.

The American intelligence services have again revealed (part of) the information they have concerning the Kremlin's inclinations.

Vladimir Poutine does not intend to limit his will of occupation to the only area of ​​Donbass in Ukraine, but wants to carry the conflict to Transdniestrie, thus declared Tuesday, April Haines.

"We believe that President Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict in Ukraine, during which he still intends to achieve objectives beyond the Donbass," said Avril Haines, the head of US intelligence, during an interview. a congressional hearing.

Its services believe that the Russian army wants to "extend the land bridge (in southern Ukraine) to Transdniestria (region of Moldova which seceded in 1990)", she added.

If it is "possible" that the Russian forces achieve this objective in the coming months, "they will not be able to reach Transdniestria and include Odessa without decreeing a form of general mobilization", according to her.

The Russian president "is probably counting on a weakening of the determination of the United States and the European Union when the shortages of food goods and the rise in energy prices will worsen", she further warned. .

Nuclear as a last resort?

Putin's ambitions, she said, exceed the capabilities of the Russian military and that "probably means that we will evolve in the coming months along a more unpredictable and potentially escalating trajectory", added Avril Haines.

Read alsoWar in Ukraine: how American intelligence manages to influence the conflict

"The current trend increases the chances that President Putin will turn to more drastic measures, including the establishment of martial law, the redirection of industrial production or a potential military escalation in order to free up the resources necessary to achieve his goals. “, she continued.

“We continue to believe that President Putin will only order the use of nuclear weapons if he perceives an existential threat to the Russian state or regime,” she noted.

The Russian president could nevertheless resort to it "if he thinks that he is losing the war in Ukraine and that NATO is either intervening or preparing to intervene", she specified.

But, even in this hypothesis, “it is likely that he would send signals” before doing so, noted Avril Haines.