Because of zero Covid: millions of deaths feared in China

Created: 05/11/2022, 13:58

By: Lukas Zigo

In a study, Chinese researchers show the dangers and effects of the zero-Covid strategy.

China is a victim of its own success.

SHANGHAI - The Chinese government is practicing a zero-Covid strategy with week-long lockdowns.

According to Chinese scientists, the price is high.

As a result, a complete repeal of the zero-Covid strategy could trigger a "tsunami" of infections with 1.55 million deaths.

According to their study in the scientific journal Nature Medicine, there could be 112 million symptomatic infections within six months.

The intensive care units would be overwhelmed: the need would be 15.6 times higher than the capacity.

Although 91 percent of the billion people are vaccinated and 53 percent are also boosted, outbreaks could not be prevented.

Corona in China: Zero Covid strategy leads to dissatisfaction among the population

In the worst case, the omicron variant has the potential to have to treat 5.1 million people in hospitals.

2.7 million patients could potentially end up in intensive care units, write the authors led by Hongjie Yu, who conduct research primarily at Fudan University in Shanghai, but also in the USA.

Most of the dead are unvaccinated people over the age of 60 due to age differences in vaccine coverage.

A worker stands guard near barricades erected for COVID-19 testing at a testing facility after Beijing authorities ordered a third round of three consecutive coronavirus tests for residents of Chaoyang District.

© Andy Wong/dpa

Although the scientists support the controversial corona policy of the Beijing leadership, they also outline the dilemma in which China finds itself and show possible ways out.

Dissatisfaction in the country with the tough measures is growing.

Tens of thousands are stuck in quarantine camps under sometimes difficult conditions, there are problems with food deliveries - and medical care is limited.

Shanghai: Goods transport collapsed at the world's largest port

But that's not all: In the event of a fire, fire engines cannot get through barriers.

Cargo traffic through the world's largest port in Shanghai has collapsed because trucks are already missing.

Supply chains are broken.

Most of the 26 million residents of the port metropolis of Shanghai and tens of millions in other metropolises, especially in northeast China, have been in lockdown for more than a month.

Now China faces a homegrown problem.

After two years of largely successful virus control and isolation, the country is now a victim of its own success, as there is no infection at all.

"Lack of vaccination protection and the absence of the virus mean that the Chinese population looks similar to the entire world population at the beginning of the pandemic," says Timo Ulrichs, an expert on global health at the Akkon University of Human Sciences in Berlin, the dpa.

"In view of the very high infectivity of the omicron variant, the zero-Covid strategy can only be maintained with ever stricter measures," Ulrichs continues.

"The question remains, 'What comes after that?'"

Corona virus: China should design 'own path for transition'

The researchers led by Hongjie Yu also show how the number of dead and sick could be reduced with an adapted strategy.

Vaccination, including booster campaigns for older people over 60, as well as additional antiviral therapies and social distancing played a “key role” in this.

There must be a combination because none of the proposals alone would be able to reduce the number of deaths to the level of the usual flu outbreaks (88,000 deaths).

"Whether or for how long a zero-Covid strategy can be maintained is questionable," write the authors of the new study.

All nations should, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), prepare to “design their own pathway for the transition from a pandemic to an endemic phase”.

Corona virus: Chinese vaccines “do not appear to produce sufficient immunity”

Because of the more contagious virus variants, a “dynamic”, somewhat more targeted zero-Covid strategy was adopted in August 2021.

The authors believe that China is now debating how long this process can continue.

The debate shifted to containment strategies, such as how the burden on the health system could be reduced.

Due to the large differences in the country, strategies would have to be tailored differently depending on the region.

Ulrichs says he does not share the fear that the healthcare system would be overburdened immediately after a cautious opening in China.

"It would depend entirely on the right strategy, and there are good role models for this in other countries." It would be advisable for China to "let the virus into the country with careful openings".

At the same time, there should be nationwide vaccination with the four vaccines approved in the West.

The Chinese vaccines "do not appear to provide adequate immunity."

(lz/dpa)