The war in eastern Ukraine is turning into an exhausting and bloody battle for positions, while neither the troops from Moscow nor those from kyiv seem capable of delivering a decisive blow.
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Around Kharkiv, the Ukrainians have certainly managed to regain several small towns north of the city and loosen the grip.
Russian forces are on the retreat, occupying only a thin strip less than 10 kilometers deep along their border.
Ineffective efforts
But despite the proclamations of Volodymyr Zelensky, who stresses that the
"occupiers are gradually being pushed back from Kharkiv"
, the gains remain minor.
The Russians may choose to abandon this ground, similar to what they did in kyiv, as several experts point out, but large troops are massed in Belgorod, just across the border, suggesting a possible new offensive.
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On the rest of some 900 kilometers of front, the Ukrainians are not progressing.
In the Donbass, the Russians increase, on the other hand, their pressure on Sieverodonetsk and increase their defense of Popasna, taken on Friday.
But
"the offensive efforts in the other sectors of the Donbass remain ineffective",
explains, on Twitter, the specialist Jomini of the West.
Further south, the fronts are not changing significantly either.
In Kherson, the only city in Russian hands after two and a half months of war, the authorities installed by Moscow intend to ask Vladimir Putin for annexation.
“
There will be a demand to integrate the Kherson region as a full subject of the Russian Federation
,” said Kirill Stremoussov, deputy head of the military-civilian administration.
In Odessa, threatened by bombing, as also in neighboring and pro-Russian Transnistria, the situation is calm.
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The pressure is concentrated on Serpents' Island, making it an islet of less than 0.2 km² offshore, crucial for controlling the northwest of the Black Sea.
The Russians are making efforts to increase their presence there "
after Ukraine successfully hit its defenses and supply ships with drones"
, revealed the British Ministry of Defense (MoD).
"
This provides opportunities to destroy more material
," insists the MoD.
Serpents' Island has been vulnerable since the loss of the
Moskva
, the Russian ship supposed to protect it.
“
The Russians don't win and the Ukrainians don't win.
We are a bit at an impasse,”
General Scott Berrier, a Pentagon official, told the Senate on Tuesday.
At his side, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, warned that we were heading towards a
“long war”
because, in addition to this impasse, the positions of each other are now maximalist.
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Vladimir Putin has not given the slightest indication of his intention to curb his "
special operation
" while the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine now believes that victory requires "
a total reconquest of the territory"
.
Under these conditions, the possibility of talks seems tenuous.
The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has thus estimated that if “
the time for negotiations arrives (…) it will not be in the immediate future”
.
On Wednesday, speaking by videoconference to students from Sciences Po Paris, the Ukrainian president also said he was
"ready to negotiate"
, while adding that for "
each new Boutcha, each new Mariupol, the desire and the possibility of negotiating disappear»
.