"Would be Russia's last war": Kuleba surprises with a cool nuclear war assessment - is he right?

Created: 05/13/2022, 14:37

By: Magdalena von Zumbusch

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

(Archive image) © Michael Kappeler/dpa

Putin uses the threat of nuclear power as an extremely powerful psychological tool.

Foreign Minister Kuleba does not respond to the threat.

Kyiv - Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba declared a surprising opinion during his visit to Germany.

Because it differs from that of his President Volodymyr Zelenskyj: Kuleba explicitly does not assume the danger of a nuclear escalation in the Ukraine war.

Whether he actually believes that the possibility is not there or whether he just wants to calm down and encourage the Germans after they have promised new weapons is another question.

In any case, the optimistic assessment made by Kuleba in the ZDF program “Today” is not without controversy.

"I don't see the possibility, because that would be the last war," said Kuleba

"I actually don't see the possibility that nuclear war is on the table as a possibility here.

Because that would be the last war - also for Russia," said Kuleba in an interview published on Thursday (May 12) in "Today".

The Ukrainian foreign minister did not provide a reason for his assessment.

However, some experts and actors do not consider it unthinkable that Vladimir Putin could find himself in a situation where he would follow up the nuclear threat with action.

"The prospect of a nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now again within the realm of possibility," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in mid-March about his assessment of the situation.

However, the UN chief had also changed his tone at the time: in the weeks before he had described the possibility of using nuclear weapons as "inconceivable".

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, several experts have questioned the acute danger of nuclear war: Arms deliveries are "no reason for Russia to start a nuclear war," according to Gustav Gressel, an expert on security policy in Eastern Europe, told

.

However, unlike Kuleba, Gressel did not completely rule out a nuclear strike, but only assessed it as unlikely: Since Putin believes that he is weaker than the USA in the nuclear field, it would be “enormously surprised if Russia were to escalate nuclear”.

Realizing Putin's nuclear threat?

The UN and the USA certainly see a real possibility

The US secret service, the CIA, is taking the Kremlin's threats seriously: there are fears that Russia could use smaller nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.

Faced with "possible desperation" over military "backlash," Putin could order the use of "tactical or short-range nuclear weapons," CIA Director William Burns said in mid-April, according to AFP.

"We're obviously very concerned," Burns said.

At the same time, however, he emphasized that so far there is "not much practical evidence" for concrete preparations for the use of such weapons.

Video: "Satan 2": Russia tests nuclear-capable long-range missile

Russia has an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons with lower yields than the bombs dropped by the United States on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II, and their use would initially be feared, according to an AFP report.

In Russian military doctrine, there is the “escalate to de-escalate” principle, which envisages a first strike with a low-yield nuclear weapon.

The hope behind this is that the other side will withdraw after this signal in order to avoid mutual complete annihilation in a nuclear war with large, strategic nuclear bombs.

Putin's threat with nuclear weapons: Chancellor Scholz also reacts - with hesitation

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) expressed his concern about a nuclear escalation of the war in the first days of the war, around the beginning of March.

It is important to "keep a cool head" in the face of Putin's threat scenario with nuclear weapons, said Scholz, and through these and similar statements made it clear that the threats of using nuclear weapons were to be taken seriously.

He also agreed to the arms deliveries requested by Ukraine only after lengthy hesitation.

Various foreign ministers (including Annalena Baerbock) and NATO representatives said at the beginning of the war that the threat had to be taken seriously.

(

)