Bahn expert explains why the 9-euro ticket could act as a deterrent

Created: 05/13/2022, 09:28

By: Max Mueller

The 9-euro ticket is intended to get people excited about Deutsche Bahn.

But that will backfire, fears transport economist Christian Böttger.

Cologne – The idea was born quickly: travel through Germany with the 9-euro ticket for little money on local transport – and at the same time relieve the burden on the climate.

In the days after the announcement at the end of March, however, the first questions popped up.

So far there have been no answers for the most part.

Are there enough trains running?

Who should close the financing gap?

And will the prices go up again when the 9-euro ticket expires at the end of August?

The IPPEN.MEDIA offer 24RHEIN spoke to the rail expert Professor Christian Böttger about this.

Christian Böttger was skeptical from the start.

He is a transport economist at the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin.

His specialty is Deutsche Bahn (DB), on which he has been researching and publishing for years.

Böttger was also an expert on the transport committee of the German Bundestag on several occasions.

Christian Böttger on problems with the 9-euro ticket: "Then you will also be able to use the ICE." (Montage) © Roberto Pfeil/dpa & Nikolas Fahlbusch/HTW Berlin

Professor Böttger, is the 9-euro ticket a good idea?

no

I think the decision of the federal government is not very effective.

The 9-euro ticket was probably created in a night session after the FDP had pushed through the petrol price subsidy and the Greens also wanted compensation for their voters.  

It warns of overloads and failures.

How realistic are these scenarios? 

Very realistic.

The 9 euro ticket causes two problems.

The most dramatic is the overload.

Let's take the route from Hamburg to Sylt.

The federal police are already regularly at Husum train station in the summer because they have to evacuate the trains because of overcrowding.

Some train stations are also overloaded at peak times, so the main train station in Hamburg has to be closed occasionally.

Other train stations are also often too crowded, for example the main train stations in Cologne and Karlsruhe.

There are many more examples.

Go ahead.

The route from Berlin to the Baltic Sea will be massively overloaded from June.

Unlike on the route to Sylt, there would be the technical possibility of using more trains there, but the local transport association would have to take care of that.

The state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is involved in this, and its transport minister has already made it clear that he is very critical of the 9-euro ticket.

The federal states do not want to spend money ordering additional train journeys, neither does Deutsche Bahn.

why?

There is nothing to earn.

But the period from June 1st to August 31st is a good choice, isn't it?

It's the peak holiday season.

For this reason, the congestion will probably affect less the classic commuter routes, which are already congested today, and more certain holiday destinations.

I am afraid that the congestion and delays will not help to attract new customers in the long term, but rather act as a deterrent.

9-euro ticket is not valid for long-distance traffic - actually

You mentioned two problems.

What threatens in addition to the overload?

The administrative effort.

The transport associations have to conduct thousands of negotiations with many different institutions, for example with the student representatives of each individual university for the semester ticket.

There is also haggling over administrative costs.

In addition, there will be heated discussions among all regular customers with a subscription - the question is who gets how much back.

There are many ticket types and case groups to argue about. 

In what way?

Let's take Berlin as an example, there are three tariff zones.

If you have a card for the AB fare zone, you get less back than a holder of an ABC card.

In order for it to be fair and uniform, the ticket must be valid nationwide.

By the way: I have a Bahncard 100, which is valid both as an AB ticket and on regional and long-distance trains - how am I actually relieved? 

Financially not at all, says the DB homepage.

But you benefit from empty compartments in long-distance transport.

I don't believe in that.

The route Berlin - Baltic Sea again: What happens when the last regional express leaves Rostock station and 1000 people no longer fit on the train?

Then people will also be able to use the ICE.

From a purely formal point of view, you are right: Long-distance traffic is not affected by the 9 euro ticket.

On some routes you could lose passengers to cheap regional transport.

That would also affect Flixtrain.

What happens after the 9 euro ticket?

"Prices will increase"

From September 1st there will no longer be a 9 euro ticket.

What happens then?

I fear that we will have to prepare for a longer conflict in Ukraine.

Energy prices will be permanently higher than in recent years, and resources are becoming scarce.

This will put an additional burden on all citizens, as tenants, car and train drivers.

There are only three options for cushioning the cost increases for buses and trains.

First, the state could provide additional money.

In view of the budgetary situation and rising interest rates, that seems increasingly unlikely.

Secondly, the railways could reduce services.

Or, third, prices will increase.

I'm afraid that's the most likely.

Isn't there a way to avoid this?

I believe that the ever-expanding regulations should be critically examined.

Why does a locomotive have to stop when switching from electric to diesel?

It works without any problems while driving, and there are no regulations for this in a car.

The DB needs a time-consuming planning approval for the electrification of railway lines, but this is not possible for the motorway.

When a route is being maintained, it has to be closed for a longer period of time because a rail vehicle with a lifting platform is blocking the track.

It would be much quicker with a track ladder, but that has recently been banned.

Perhaps Switzerland can be used as a model, where many things are much more pragmatic and yet securely regulated.  

Speaking of bureaucracy: Let's assume I want to travel from Cologne to Lake Constance on June 1 and use my KVB monthly ticket.

How are the conductors of the umpteen transport associations supposed to check whether my ticket is valid?

It looks different everywhere.

The inspectors of the transport companies are actually quite well trained to understand which tickets are valid.

But this case will challenge everyone involved.

I assume that the controls will be superficial at times.

True to the motto: He's got something that looks like a ticket, it'll fit.

9-euro ticket costs the federal government “around 2.5 billion euros”

In 2018, you warned of a lack of investment in the DB fleet.

How does it look today?

The funds have been increased slightly since 2018, but that is not enough because the railway was underfunded for more than two decades.

In Helmut Kohl's time, the funds for the expansion of the rail network were still around 4 billion euros per year, but during Schröder's tenure they were reduced to around 1.5 billion euros.

Now they have been increased to 2 billion.

However, it cannot be overlooked that the new transport minister (note: Volker Wissing) does not want to give any impetus to the railways.

He plans monstrous subsidies for electric cars.

Can larger capacities be managed in the short term? 

There are only limited reserves in the existing network.

Significant new routes would have to be built for the growth targets announced by the federal government.

There are currently no projects ready for construction, the lead time is long.

At the same time, there are not enough staff for planning and construction.

Even if additional money suddenly became available, the required specialists would not be available. 

Deutsche Bahn keeps making headlines with bad numbers.

Now the ticket comes at zero price.

How is this supposed to work?

The details of the agreement are still pending, but it is clear that the federal government will compensate the transport companies for the loss of revenue from regular customers.

The number that is in the room is 2.5 billion euros.

That's a realistic amount for three months.

9-Euro-Ticket: The most important information at a glance

• Where can I buy the 9 euro ticket?

• When can I buy the 9 euro ticket?

• Is the 9-euro ticket valid nationwide?