How Russia is blackmailing Europe with energy

Created: 05/13/2022, 11:32 am

From: Foreign Policy

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (archive image) © Kay Nietfeld/dpa

For months, Europe's response to the war in Ukraine has been dominated by one question: what happens if Russia decides to turn off the faucets?

• This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published in

  Foreign Policy

  magazine on April 29, 2022 .

Worst fears came true when Russia cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland as punishment for refusing to pay in rubles.

The Kremlin's decision has divided European leaders over when Russia might strike again - and who its unfortunate next target might be.

Within Europe "there is a sense of foreboding," said Nikos Tsafos, an energy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"We don't know who.

We don't know when."

European countries, most of which are already trying to become independent of Russia's supplies, are deeply divided over how to respond to the threat.

The central debate revolves around whether to comply with one of Moscow's most important demands: paying for its natural gas in rubles, which could serve to cushion the impact of Western sanctions.

The European Union believes that complying with Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands would violate its sanctions over the Ukraine war, and many European countries have opposed the order.

Germany, which gets more than half of its natural gas from Russia, accused the Kremlin of "blackmail".

Ukraine news: How Russia is blackmailing Europe with energy

Russia has weaponized energy for years, but it's a double-edged sword.

Natural gas exports cannot be cut off as they provide hard currency.

But Europe cannot do without Russian gas either.

Given Russia's tactical ineptitude, energy blackmail could be the last resort.

Energy exports are Russia's "last mechanism to exert any kind of influence across Europe outside of military action," said Olga Khakova, energy expert at the Atlantic Council.

"Oil and gas are their biggest cards."

Bulgaria and Poland, both of which refused to meet Russia's payment deadline, were the first to fall.

Experts say no country without Russian gas is in immediate trouble: Poland's contract is due to expire in the coming months, and both countries are expected to receive more gas from Norway and Greece.

As summer approaches, so has demand, as natural gas is not as critical as it was during the freezing winter.

"It's not a big deal from a supply perspective," said Samantha Gross, an energy security expert at the Brookings Institution.

"It's more symbolic of a big deal and that they are cutting off supplies to some EU members."

But without supplies from Russia, Europe faces a major challenge as more countries crack down on Vladimir Putin's blackmail attempts.

"Energy security in Europe is becoming a zero-sum game, with different European countries competing for a limited amount of supply," Tsafos said.

“Poland and Bulgaria, maybe they can get along with that.

But as that gets bigger, it gets so much harder to deal with.

The era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe is coming to an end.

Europe is making progress on energy issues.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

“In order not to suffer the same fate as Poland and Bulgaria, countries that are more dependent on Russian gas are looking for workarounds.

Some companies in Germany and Austria are now looking for ways to accept the Kremlin's terms without violating EU sanctions.

Germany gets more than half of its natural gas from Russia, and Austria even depends on it for 80 percent.

Ukraine-Russia-News: Habeck wants to meet Putin's demands "sanctions compatible".

Economics Minister Robert Habeck recently said Germany could meet Putin's demands "sanctions-compatible," although a European Commission spokesman later said any payment in rubles would run counter to EU sanctions.

Poland, one of the most outspoken critics of Europe's dependence on Russian energy, has also insisted that countries willing to pay Moscow in rubles should be punished.

"It's no surprise that the Kremlin is trying to blackmail us with fossil fuels," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“The era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe is coming to an end.

Europe is moving forward on energy issues.” But until European leaders can fully disengage from Russia's supplies, we remain trapped.

"You can feel the unsustainability," Tsafos said.

"But it's really hard to tell how fast the dominoes are going to fall."

by Christina Lu

Christina Lu

is an editorial staff member at Foreign Policy.

Twitter: @christinafei

This article was first published in English in the magazine "ForeignPolicy.com" on April 29, 2022 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.

*Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.

Foreign Policy Logo © ForeignPolicy.com