NRW surveys: Decisive turn at the last second?

Deserted before new situation

Created: 05/13/2022, 06:02

By: Marcus Giebel

The CDU and FDP have governed North Rhine-Westphalia for five years.

This could change soon.

We take a look at polls and politicians' assessments of the May 15 election.

Update from Friday, May 13th, midnight

: A current ZDF survey sees the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia just ahead of the SPD.

In the survey by the Wahlen research group, the party of Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst achieved 32 percent, while the SPD received 29 percent approval.

Compared to the previous week, this corresponds to an increase of two percentage points for the CDU.

Thomas Kutschaty's SPD gains one percentage point.

The Greens come to 17 percent in the survey, one point less than a week earlier.

The FDP also lost one percentage point and ended up at six percent.

The AfD remains unchanged at seven percent in the "Politbarometer".

The left remains at three percent approval, which would mean they would miss the entry into the state parliament again.

Update from Thursday, May 12, 9.30 a.m .:

According to a survey, four days before the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday, the CDU can slightly increase its lead over the SPD.

In a survey published on Thursday by the INSA institute on behalf of

, the CDU came to 32 percent, the SPD lost further ground at 28 percent: Compared to the previous survey, the CDU gained one percentage point, while the SPD lost one point.

The approval ratings of the other parties remained unchanged.

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen should therefore take third place with 16 percent, the FDP comes to eight percent, the AfD to seven.

The left would fail with three percent at the five percent hurdle.

Among the candidates for the office of Prime Minister, the current Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst, is favored by the voters with 28 percent, ahead of Thomas Kutschaty from the SPD (25 percent).

According to the survey, 29 percent would choose neither of the two candidates in a direct election.

State elections in NRW 2022: CDU and SPD each increase their poll numbers slightly

Update from Tuesday, May 10, 5 p.m.:

In the last week before the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, a new survey indicates that the CDU has a small lead over the SPD.

In a survey published on Tuesday by the opinion research institute INSA on behalf of the

newspaper, the party of Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst came to 31 percent, the opposition SPD reached 29 percent.

The third strongest force would be Bündnis 90/Die Grünen with 16 percent approval.

The FDP follows in fourth place with eight percent, followed by the AfD with seven percent.

With three percent of the votes, the left would again fail at the five percent hurdle and miss the entry into the state parliament.

According to these results, possible coalitions would be in particular a grand coalition, a black-green alliance or a traffic light coalition.

NRW election: CDU still just ahead of SDP according to polls - poll high of the Greens

Update from May 6, 3 p.m.:

The ZDF “Politbarometer” provides new survey data shortly before the NRW election: Hendik Wüst’s CDU is still just ahead of the SPD with challenger Thomas Kutschaty.

The Wahlen research group determined a value of 30 percent for the station's "Sunday question" for the Christian Democrats.

On the other hand, 28 percent of respondents would vote for the SPD in a state election on Sunday.

infratest dimap for ZDF attested a comparatively strong increase for the Greens, which means they came to 18 percent - and thus achieved almost three times as many voters as in the last state election in 2017. This result is not too surprising, given the nationwide survey soaring of the Greens, which the Insa Institute, among others, determined in a survey at the end of April to the beginning of May.

The FDP and AfD each received seven percent of the second votes in the ZDF Sunday question.

This would not be enough for a continuation of the black-yellow coalition under Hendrik Wüst.

According to the results, a red-green or black-green coalition would be possible.

NRW election: CDU ahead of the SPD - but the difference between the parties is getting smaller

Update from May 5, 6 p.m.:

The CDU is currently ahead of the SPD in polls for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.

A recent survey suggests so.

However, the lead over the SPD is not quite as large as in the most recent polls (see first report).

In a survey published by ARD on Thursday, the CDU reached 30 percent.

The SPD has 28 percent of the votes.

The third strongest force would be the Greens with 16 percent approval.

They are followed by the FDP and AfD, each with eight percent.

With three percent, the left would miss entering the state parliament.

For the survey, Infratest dimap interviewed 1,537 eligible voters from North Rhine-Westphalia from Monday to Wednesday.

The range of fluctuation was given as two to three percentage points.

Surveys by other major opinion research institutes had recently indicated a close race between the CDU and SPD.

Survey tremors before the NRW election: Wust suddenly in front of the SPD – the forecasts at a glance

First report from May 5th, 1 p.m

.: Munich – It is the third state election of the year and in a way marks the end of the political spring of 2022. But also the highlight, because the election in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has a special signal effect.

In the most populous federal state, it remains to be seen whether the SPD will continue the upswing since the federal elections or whether the CDU will put a stop to it and continue to be the strongest faction in Düsseldorf.

Since Armin Laschet left for Berlin at the end of October, Hendrik Wüst, who had previously been Minister of Transport, has acted as state father.

For the SPD, Thomas Kutschaty is in the running of the top candidates, he was Minister of Justice in North Rhine-Westphalia until 2017.

In that last state election, the Social Democrats lost almost eight percent of the vote and were suddenly only the second strongest force behind the Christian Democrats, who have been governing together with the FDP ever since.

The coalition has a razor-thin majority of just one vote.

The SPD, Greens and AfD sit on the opposition bench, as well as three non-party MPs.

Who can take a seat here in the future?

On May 15, the 18th state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia will be elected.

© Malte Krudewig/dpa

State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: According to surveys, it will be tight between the CDU and SPD

A similar head-to-head race between the two mainstream parties is looming as in 2017. Around 13 million eligible voters are called on May 15 to cast their votes.

So far there are many indications that black and yellow would no longer get a majority.

According to surveys, the big winners seem to be the Greens, who may even be able to double their result from five years ago.

The Liberals, on the other hand, face severe losses.

The AfD is also likely to make it into parliament again.

Wüst and the CDU should get tailwind from the Forsa survey of May 4th.

The governing party landed at 32 percent - the best value in almost two months - and at the same time referred the SPD to second place with four percentage points less.

This is the largest gap since mid-March.

The Greens would therefore come to 17 percent and could thus become the “Prime Minister-maker”.

The FDP holds its own with seven percent ahead of the AfD, which would reach six percent.

For the left, entry into the state parliament would be far away at three percent.

This survey took place online between April 19th and 26th on behalf of NRW daily newspapers.

2006 citizens took part.

The results of other NRW Sunday questions are also provided by

.

Prime Minister survey of North Rhine-Westphalia: Wüst and Kuchaty both lose approval

It is also interesting to look at the preference between the two prime ministerial candidates.

Depending on the survey, Wüst was even more than 40 percent in April, but this time he only gets 35 percent.

Kuchaty, who has only exceeded the 30 percent mark twice since the end of October, would be the favorite for 27 percent of those polled.

The incumbent lost six percent compared to the previous Forsa survey of April 13 and the most recent Infratest dimap survey of April 24.

The challenger went down by seven and five percent respectively.

At least 181 MPs will move into the state parliament, which can still increase due to overhang and compensation mandates.

199 politicians currently form the second largest state parliament in the federal government after Bavaria.

We show an overview of the previous polls on the outcome of the eagerly awaited election day on May 15th.

How will the 18th NRW state parliament look like?

NRW: Surveys and forecasts for May 15 - The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia

For comparison: in 2017, the CDU received 33 percent of the votes, the SPD 31.2 percent.

The FDP was the third largest group with 12.6 percent, followed by the AfD with 7.4 percent and the Greens with 6.4 percent.

The left narrowly missed entering the state parliament with 4.9 percent, the other parties accounted for 4.5 percent.