Putin prepares for 'long war'

Created: 05/13/2022, 04:59 am

By: Christian Stör

Even a Russian victory in the Donbass will probably not end the Ukraine war. 

Moscow/Washington, DC – The Ukraine war has been raging for almost 80 days.

There is currently no end in sight.

But what if Russia successfully completes the campaign in Donbass?

According to US intelligence agencies, that wouldn't make any difference either.

Allegedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a lengthy battle in Ukraine.

At least that is the opinion of US intelligence coordinator Avril Haines, who spoke at a Senate hearing in the capital Washington on Tuesday (May 10) that Putin was still pursuing plans that went beyond eastern Ukraine.

"We assume that Putin's strategic goals probably haven't changed," Haines said.

The relocation of the Russian armed forces to the Donbass is probably only temporary.

Ukraine War: Kyiv reports combat preparations in Transnistria

Specifically, this means the neighboring Republic of Moldova.

As early as April, a Russian general said that one of the goals of the Russian offensive in Ukraine was to create a land connection through southern Ukraine to the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria.

According to the Ukrainian general staff, they are currently observing that armed groups and Russian troops are preparing for a deployment there.

Russian forces in the area are "in the midst of preparations for battle," the Ukrainian General Staff said.

Vladimir Putin probably assumes that the Ukraine war will last for a long time.

© Mikhail Metzel/Imago Images

For this reason, too, Haines warned of a further escalation of the Ukraine conflict.

The uncertainty of the struggle, which is developing into a war of attrition, combined with the mismatch between Putin's ambitions and Russia's military capabilities, means an "unpredictable and potentially escalating course" in the future.

Ukraine War: Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons?

"With both Russia and Ukraine believing they can move forward militarily, we see no viable avenue for negotiation, at least in the short term," Haines said.

Putin probably also expects that the determination of the US and the EU will weaken in the face of inflation and food shortages.

Haines stressed that the US still believes that Moscow will continue to use "nuclear rhetoric" to prevent the US and the West from increasing support for Ukraine.

"We continue to believe that President Putin would likely authorize the use of nuclear weapons only if he perceived an existential threat to the Russian state or regime," Haines said.

(cs/dpa)