Elections in Lebanon: Dozens of candidates - and one sure winner
On Sunday, Lebanese citizens will vote in parliamentary elections in a time of deep economic crisis, huge government debt, fuel shortages, food and basic goods - and a growing terrorist organization.
Hezbollah, and its allies, are expected to get most of the seats in parliament, and it does not appear that anyone will stop them.
Tali Goldstein
13/05/2022
Friday, 13 May 2022, 18:40 Updated: Saturday, 14 May 2022, 11:32
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Lebanese citizens will vote in the parliamentary elections on Sunday.
These are the first elections since the economic collapse in 2019 and the explosion in the capital Port in August 2020, in which more than 200 people were killed and large parts of the capital were destroyed.
"I want change," said Summer Sobi, a truck driver who lives in Sydney, Australia, and voted with other Lebanese foreign residents on Friday.
"I do not want the same people every four years, and if not them, then their children, and if not their children, then their relatives. What about us?" He told the France 24 network yesterday.
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The Lebanese-controlled Hezbollah-backed Lebanese parliament has 128 members elected every four years.
In the past, elections have been postponed many times, but this year they are being held as planned amid heavy pressure from the international community.
The vote will take place in one round on May 15.
Voters must be at least 21 years old, and candidates are 25. Lebanon is divided into 15 constituencies, and in 2018, only 49% of eligible voters in Lebanon went to the polls.
Hezbollah majority (Photo: Reuters)
Most of the traditional parties in Lebanon have a candidate in this year's parliamentary elections.
Many of the candidates come from the Hezbollah Shiite terrorist party and organization, including Muhammad Raed, a Hezbollah MP who is running again.
Nabia Berry, chairman of the Lebanese parliament since 1992 and head of the Amal Shiite party, is also running in the elections again
. Sethrida
Jagia
, a Lebanese politician and the wife of party leader Samir Jagia, also ran for parliament on behalf of Lebanese forces.
Twelve Mikati is not coping either.
Hariri's resignation hurts election (Photo: Reuters)
Lebanon, the small and promising country formerly known as the "Switzerland of the Middle East", has been mired in a deep economic crisis since 2019 that the World Bank has called it "one of the most severe crises in the world since the mid-19th century".
The country suffers from a severe shortage of fuel, electricity, medicines and food products, alongside unemployment of 29.6% in January 2022, according to UN and Central Statistics data released on Thursday.
The Lebanese pound has fallen 95% since autumn 2019; 215%; and the health care system is facing a complete collapse.However, unemployment was not a major issue in the campaigns of the candidates in the parliamentary elections.
No electricity, no fuel, no food (Photo: Reuters)
The economic crisis, caused in part by the country's huge debt, has cut Lebanon's GDP by 58.1% since 2019, according to the World Bank. Millions have sunk into poverty. The World Bank estimates that the country's poverty rate rose by 13% in 2020 And 28% in 2021.
Government revenues collapsed in half in 2021 and reached 6.6% of GDP: the lowest ratio in the world after Somalia and Yemen, according to the bank.
Gross external debt reached an estimated 183% of GDP - with a higher ratio recorded only in Japan, Sudan and Greece.
Today, 75% of the Lebanese population live in poverty, according to the UN.
More and more desperate Lebanese are trying to cross into Cyprus by sea in hopes of reaching Europe.
Dozens died when their ship sank off the coast of Tripoli in April.
The World Bank has sharply criticized the ruling class in Lebanon for "organizing" one of the most severe economic downturns in the world as a result of shameless exploitation of resources.
The bank accused the elite of exploiting its status, while the rest of the nation was suffering from a crisis.
"The conduct of this class threatens Lebanon's long - term stability and social peace," the bank said.
More than 200 people killed in the blast (Photo: AP)
2020 was a particularly bad year for Lebanon.
The economic and political crisis was joined by the corona plague, which accelerated the collapse of the health system, and in August at least 200 Beirut residents were killed and thousands injured in a deadly explosion at the port - one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in recent years.
Lebanese activists accused Hezbollah of being involved in the incident.
Politicians banded together to block the then-opened investigation led by Judge Tarek Bitar.
Hezbollah operatives began a violent protest calling for Bitter's dismissal.
Public outrage over the conduct of the investigation led to deadly clashes in Beirut, which deepened the already existing polarization in Lebanese sectarian society (consisting of Sunnis, Shiites, Maronite Christians, Orthodox Christians and Druze).
Hezbollah supporters in Beirut after the explosion in the port (Photo: Reuters)
New parties, which do not identify with any sect, have tried to profit from the public outrage and become stronger in front of the traditional parties to secure seats for themselves in parliament.
But even this year the opposition failed to unite and establish a single front against Hezbollah.
The lack of a united front is noticeable in the number of independent candidates, more than double compared to 2018. Opposition candidates and independent candidates together constitute 284 candidates out of 718 candidates in this year's race - compared to 124 four years ago, according to the Policy Initiative Research Institute.
As a result, in Sunday's elections many lists will run, each identified with a different denomination.
Hezbollah's victory four years ago happened despite the formation of an extraordinary coalition of independent and secular candidates, called the Kulluna Watani list ("We are all citizens"), and included a record number of nominated politicians.
This year, in the absence of a similar coalition, the implication of the multiplicity of lists combined with an electoral law that favors well-established established parties is that the opposition in Lebanon has little chance of securing a May 15 victory.
With or without a coalition - Hezbollah is getting stronger
According to commentators, in the election campaign, the lack of Sunni candidates and Sunni voters who feel unrepresented and decided not to vote this year - will be good again with Hezbollah and its allies, who together won 71 of the 128 seats in the election four years ago.
"Because of Hariri, Hezbollah can win two-thirds of the parliament," Ibrahim al-Jawari, a political commentator and former Hariri adviser, told France 24.
Hezbollah's victory will have an impact outside Lebanon as well.
The strengthening of an organization is in fact the strengthening of Iran, which is waging a proxy war with Sunni Saudi Arabia in the Middle East - and a tense relationship with the United States.
Hezbollah, which in addition to its terrorist activities runs hospitals and schools within Lebanon, is already defined as a "state within a state."
The organization itself said recently that it does not want or expect a two-thirds majority in parliament.
However, the expected intensification could give the organization a greater impact on the presidential election later this year and on economic reforms that the International Monetary Fund is demanding from Lebanon to implement in exchange for financial assistance.
Hassan Nasrallah (Photo: Reuters)
Despite the problems and the need for change, the turnout in the election is expected to be low.
One reason for this is the absence of former Prime Minister Hariri, who announced in January that neither he nor his party, the Stream of the Future, would run in the parliamentary elections.
Hariri, a Muslim Sunni, felt the need to resign, according to estimates, amid deteriorating relations with Saudi Arabia, which had severed ties with him because it did not prevent Hezbollah from strengthening.
Now, Saudi Arabia's approach, paradoxically, will only contribute to the strengthening of Hezbollah in parliament.
The turnout in the election is expected to be particularly low in Sunni provinces, independent pollster Kamal Perali told Reuters.
He said about 30 percent of voters in Sunni districts in 2018 said they would not vote this year.
"More seats and more power"
Mustafa Alush, 64, one of the founders of the Future Stream Party, said in an interview with Reuters that he had decided to run this year as an independent candidate.
He fears that Hariri's absence will allow Hezbollah and the lists he supports to win a sweeping victory.
"It is very dangerous, because the door to Hezbollah to get more seats and power is wide open," he explained.
According to Jawari, the situation in the Sunni community could cause Hezbollah and its allies to get six or eight more seats in parliament "without having to do anything for them
." Does not want financial assistance that comes with conditions. He also sees Hariri's retirement as a gift to Hezbollah and its allies. "It is only natural and logical," he told France24.
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