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Epidemic|About 300 new confirmed cases per day, no further decline, Leung Cheuk-wai expects the sixth wave in two weeks

2022-05-14T14:19:29.248Z


Leung Cheuk-wai, a government expert advisor and Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, predicted in an internal online forum of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong today (14th) that the sixth wave of the outbreak will occur in Hong Kong in two weeks. Participating geriatrician


Leung Cheuk-wai, a government expert advisor and Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, predicted in an internal online forum of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong today (14th) that the sixth wave of the outbreak will occur in Hong Kong in two weeks.

She Daming, a specialist in geriatrics who attended, reiterated that Leung Cheuk-wai showed doctors the virus calculation model from 2020 to the present at the forum. According to the current daily diagnosis of about 300 cases, if you are not careful, the sixth wave of the epidemic will be imminent. .


Liang Zhuowei wrote on Twitter today, saying that the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong issued an urgent appeal on the 12th, reminding teachers and students not to go to Kennedy Town for meals, because the virus level in the sewage recorded in housing estates in the area was 6 million, and the virus volume was quite high; After several days of testing in large housing estates, and the number recorded in Hong Kong in the past few weeks has remained at the 300 figure target, it means that if there is a little carelessness, there will be a sixth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong.


Leung Cheuk-wai, a government expert advisor and Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong.

(File photo / Photo by Yu Junliang)

The HKU Faculty of Medicine held an intranet meeting today (14th), and only doctors were invited to participate.

She Daming, a specialist in geriatrics who attended, reiterated that Leung Cheuk-wai, an expert consultant to the government and Dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, showed doctors a virus data model he had made since the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan in early 2020 and the changes in the epidemic in Hong Kong at the forum.

Leung Cheuk-wai predicts that, according to the current number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong that continue to hover over 300, after applying his data model analysis, Hong Kong will have a sixth wave of outbreaks in two weeks.

▼On May 13, the Department of Health visited Xingyue Building, Sheung Wan▼


Hong Kong's popular BA.2 outbreak is not as serious as Europe and the United States

Liang Zhuowei predicts that the sixth wave will continue to spread the Omicron BA.2 virus strain. Even if there are sporadic cases of BA.4 or BA.5, the outbreak will not be as severe as that in European and American countries.

He explained at the meeting that most people in Hong Kong are currently infected with the BA.2 virus strain genetically similar to BA.4 and BA.5, so the body has already produced antibodies against it, and even people who have never been infected can rely on vaccine protection The body has enough antibodies to fight severe illness.

On the contrary, European and American countries were initially infected with the BA.1 virus strain, and the related gene sequence was different from that of BA.2.

She Daming finally added that Liang Zhuowei reminded the doctors, "It's a good idea to ask people to meet in the past two weeks, otherwise there will be a sixth wave of outbreaks and the meeting will be tightened up again."

It's good to see the offeror in the past two weeks, otherwise there will be a sixth wave of outbreaks and the meeting will be tightened again. Liang Zhuowei

She Daming, a geriatric specialist.

(File photo/Photo by Ou Jiale)

Vaccines prevent complications and deaths with little effect on preventing infection

Leung Cheuk-wai also posted five consecutive posts on his personal social networking site Twitter today.

Vaccines, he wrote, prevent serious complications and death, but have little effect in preventing infections.

Although the target coverage of the vaccine is 100%, after an individual is infected, the virus will still be brought into the hospital ward, and then transmitted to the elderly, organ transplant recipients and other vulnerable groups.

Generally speaking, the amount of virus per liter of sewage is several thousand to more than 100,000, and 6 million were recorded in the Western District.

Liang Zhuowei pointed out that the urgent appeal issued by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong earlier called on teachers and students not to go to the Kennedy Town area, because that day, the number of viruses in the sewage recorded in the housing estates in the Western District area was 6 million per liter.

Pan Liewen, a professor at the School of Public Health of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, explained to the "Hong Kong 01" reporter that in the past, the positive values ​​of sewage from other housing estates usually maintained at about several thousand to more than 100,000 per liter, but the viral load in Xi Wan Village suddenly reached millions, belonging to the "Unusual, rare."

Data from the University of Hong Kong shows that the RT value (effective reproduction number) is picking up.

Continuous daily 300 new diagnoses have not continued to decline, RT value has rebounded

Liang Zhuowei also wrote that the subsequent large-scale housing estate test in Western District showed a positive infection rate of 1.3%, which was 10 times higher than the infection rate of about 0.1% for the entire Hong Kong population.

Pan Liewen added that the overall positive infection rate of 0.1% includes the calculation of all test results in the past period, that is, compulsory testing and enclosed testing accepted by the general public.

Leung Cheuk-wai reported about 300 confirmed cases every day in Hong Kong over the past few weeks, which means that the RT value (effective reproduction number) has continued to be 1, which means that the epidemic has not shown signs of slowing down for a period of time; he concluded that if the epidemic tends to develop slightly in the wrong direction, Hong Kong will be on the cusp of a potential sixth wave.

Pan Liewen explained that if the RT value is 1, it means that the transmission chain in the community is still unbroken; on the contrary, if the RT value is lower than 1, it means that the epidemic situation will slow down.

Liewen Pan is a professor at the School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong.

(File photo / Photo by Ojiale)

▼May 12 Enclosure inspection of Xihuan Village▼


+7

▼On May 14th, the inspection of the enclosure of Taoshu Building in Limushu Village▼


+1

A total of 41 cases in Xingyue Building, half of the counters on the third floor had diners recruited with confirmed diagnosis Waiters in Sai Wan Village for investigation of connections An adult with inflammatory syndrome now has "long COVID-19" and has become insomniacs

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-05-14

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