NRW election: SPD could make CDU "King without a country" - but the tailwind is missing
Created: 05/14/2022, 12:57 p.m
By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi
The CDU is the favorite in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, but the SPD could also be successful.
However, there is a lack of tailwind.
Munich – The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are scheduled for Sunday (May 15).
The most populous German federal state will determine whether the incumbent and Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) can continue to govern, or whether his biggest challenger Thomas Kutschaty (SPD) should now take over the office.
In any case, one thing is certain: It will be a close race, as the current polls for the NRW election show shortly before the polling stations open.
In contrast to the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein just a week ago, where incumbent and CDU candidate Daniel Günther was able to win a huge victory, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia is only just ahead.
The SPD is close to the Christian Democrats.
For the Social Democrats to be successful, however, there is no decisive momentum at the federal level.
NRW election: survey sees CDU ahead - no majority for black and yellow
A current survey by the Insa Institute for the Bild
(1000 respondents between May 9th and 10th)
again shows the tight race in North Rhine-Westphalia.
According to this, the CDU is 32 percent, while the SPD comes to 28 percent with a difference of four percentage points.
The Greens get 16 percent, the FDP 8 percent, the AfD 7 percent and the left 3 percent.
Other parties come together to 6 percent.
Although the race is mainly fought between the CDU and the SPD, the remaining parties are crucial for coalition building.
The current black and yellow government in North Rhine-Westphalia no longer achieves a majority with these values.
But a black-green alliance would be possible.
NRW election: SPD with traffic light hope - but federal politics dampens expectations
The SPD should also be looking forward to the possibility of a very specific coalition.
Because with a traffic light coalition together with the Greens and the FDP, the SPD could suddenly triumph in the state elections.
In addition, Insa boss and opinion researcher Hermann Binkert emphasized to the
that the CDU with favorite Wüst could end up being “king without a country” if the SPD were actually able to form a traffic light coalition.
However, a good result requires tailwind from the party at federal level.
And this is exactly where the social democrats are stuck, according to the pollster.
But Binkert lists other additional factors that are pushing the SPD into a corner in the election: "The economic situation, the high inflation and the debate about Germany's course with regard to Ukraine also have an influence on the voting decision."
SPD top candidate Thomas Kutschaty (l) and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) during the election campaign in Cologne.
© Federico Gambarini/dpa
NRW election: "Small federal election" as a mood test for Scholz
The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are not only relevant at state level and should by no means be regarded as purely state elections.
It is also referred to as a "small federal election" and from this conclusions can also be drawn for the federal level.
The election in Germany's most populous state is therefore an important mood test for both the parties at federal level and for Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).
You can find all the information about this important election at
We inform you about various topics from postal voting to candidates and parties.
Don't know who to vote for yet?
The Wahl-O-Mat is a useful aid at this point.