Bets predict Eurovision quite well.
Without being infallible, they have predicted the top positions on a recurring basis.
Last year they favored Italy, which won, and in the previous edition they favored the Netherlands, which also won.
Since 2016 the bets have always given the winner and the second classified among their three favorites.
What do they say this year?
The bets are clearly on Ukraine.
Her song
De ella Stefania
, by the Kalush Orchestra, would have a 59% chance of winning the contest, ahead of the English
Space Man
(11%) and the Swedish
Hold Me Closer
(9%).
The Spanish representative, Chanel, would be fifth, with her song
De Ella SloMo
, with one option out of 25 to surprise and win the contest.
These data indicate that Ukraine could win on Saturday thanks to a wave of solidarity with the country after the Russian aggression.
Her song is a favorite in the bets, although it is not among the most popular due to its listeners on Spotify.
The
streaming
application offers data on the "popularity" of each song, based on the total number of reproductions and its trend.
Thanks to that we know that the Italian song is the most popular (with 78 out of 100), followed by the Swedish (73), and the Dutch (73).
The Spanish song appears fourth (68), in a persecuting group where Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom are.
Some of the thrust of each song seems domestic: the three most popular participating songs for Spotify are three of those that appear among the most listened to in their respective countries.
An exception is the Ukrainian theme, perhaps because of the war, which is the third most popular song in its country, but it is not popular in general terms.
The Spanish song does not meet the pattern either.
Although it is the fourth most popular of the participants, this week it has not even been among the 100 most listened to songs in Spain.
More information
Final of Eurovision 2022: schedule, participants and order of performance
the style of the songs
Among the 25 songs that will compete on Saturday there are happy and moving songs, but also less energetic ballads.
Spotify data allows us to rank each song on four metrics: how positive they are, how danceable they are, how likely they are to be acoustic, and how energetic they are.
The Spanish song,
SloMo
, is among the most positive, danceable and energetic.
It also sounds more electronic than the average of the participating songs, as the graph shows.
The songs can be classified into three groups: 1) positive and danceable, 2) sad and acoustic, and 3) sad but more electronic.
They can be viewed one by one on the chart.
A characteristic song of the first group is the Romanian
call me
, and a representative of the third group, sadder, is
Hold Me Closer
, the Swedish song that is among the favorites.
There is no magic formula to win.
In the last 10 years, six positive and danceable songs have won Eurovision, like last year the Italian
Zitti e Buoni
, by Måneskin, or
Toy
, by Netta, which won in 2018. But there were also four winners with sad songs, such as the Portuguese
Amar Pelos Dois
, by Salvador Sobral, in 2017.
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