AfD also has to tremble in NRW - because it can no longer rely on the well-known survey phenomenon

Created: 05/15/2022 17:03

By: Andreas Schmid

Trembling before the NRW election: The AfD parliamentary group leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel and the NRW MP Bernd Baumann (front).

© IMAGO/Jens Schicke

The north punishes the AfD: In Schleswig-Holstein, the right-wing populists are falling out of a state parliament for the first time.

Is the same also threatening in NRW?

Düsseldorf – Actually, the AfD firmly assumed that it would also be represented in the state parliament after the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein.

The bitter realization: After the ballot on May 8th, the AfD flies out of a German state parliament for the first time since it was founded.

According to the preliminary final result, the AfD reached 4.4 percent in the far north.

A result that is now also possible in North Rhine-Westphalia?

At least there are parallels.

NRW election: AfD survey parallels to Schleswig-Holstein

The right-wing populists had previously seen polls for the Schleswig-Holstein election at six percent.

In the current opinion polls for the NRW elections since the beginning of May, the AfD is at six to eight percent.

That should actually be enough, as the past has shown.

Because: The AfD traditionally does worse in polls than on the final Sunday of the election.

Sociologists recognize several reasons for this phenomenon.

For example, that AfD supporters take part in polls less often or the bias caused by social desirability.

To put it simply, respondents in surveys tend to give those answers that are expected or desired in society or by the person taking the survey.

This effect occurs particularly among supporters of parties that are further removed from the political center.

Means: Possibly interviewees conceal that they vote for the AfD.

How many votes go to the AfD on Sunday?

Top candidate Markus Wagner wants to get the result of the past NRW election.

In 2017, the AfD reached 7.4 percent.

© Roland Weihrauch/dpa

NRW election: AfD before problems?

'Dispute deters voters'

So everything clear for NRW?

The Schleswig-Holstein election showed that you cannot always rely on this effect.

The fact that the AfD achieved a significantly worse result than in polls is probably also due to internal party disputes.

The party had to admit that to itself.

The five-strong parliamentary group in Kiel has long since fallen apart, the former AfD state leader was expelled from the party and the parliamentary group.

"Disputes discourage voters," said AfD top candidate Jörg Nobis self-critically after the election defeat on Sunday evening.

Internal squabbling has long been a trademark of the AfD.

The losses in the Saarland elections are partly due to discord within their own ranks, although the Ukraine war certainly also played a role.

Video: AfD: Losses in Saar elections due to internal disputes and the Ukraine war

NRW election 2022: AfD dispute over Russia-Ukraine policy

There are also disagreements in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Less about people like in Schleswig-Holstein.

Rather, it is about the orientation of the content.

The escalating Ukraine conflict is dividing the party, and not only in North Rhine-Westphalia.

For years, the AfD was courted by the Kremlin.

This fell on the feet of the AfD top candidate Nobis in Schleswig-Holstein during the election campaign: "We are said to understand Putin," he complained.

That doesn't go down well with the general public.

According to the latest research by

, these "rumours" are not just speculations.

Many AfD MPs stand out because of their close ties to Russia, as does the Left Party, by the way.

At the same time, there are a few AfD politicians who take a clear stance on Ukraine, such as Bavarian MP Rainer Kraft.

These politicians deviate from the party line, which in turn creates internal strife over the direction of Ukraine-Russia policy.

Although the AfD, as the opposition party, has little influence on arms deliveries anyway, it seems to be split on the issue.

The NRW MP Roger Beckamp voted in the Bundestag for arms deliveries - contrary to the instructions of his party leader.

The AfD stands for a neutral stance by Germany in the Ukraine war, for a freeze on arms deliveries and the lifting of sanctions against Russia.

(...) It's not our war.

AfD boss Tino Chrupalla at an NRW election campaign event in Krefeld

NRW election: where it looks better for the AfD than in Schleswig-Holstein

Another important finding from Schleswig-Holstein: the attractiveness of the AfD for protest voters is declining.

In the 2017 North Election, 60 percent of AfD voters described themselves as protest voters, on Sunday only 45 percent.

This means that the AfD now has many voters who take a closer look at what is happening in the party before making their voting decision - and refuse to vote if they are dissatisfied.

Meanwhile, the AfD is encouraged by the performance of the workforce.

In this population group, which is certainly more present in NRW than in Schleswig-Holstein, the party won 15 percent.

The tight starting position could also speak for the AfD.

In North Rhine-Westphalia there is no such thing as the outright winner of the elections, as there is in Schleswig-Holstein, where the victory of CDU Prime Minister Daniel Günther was already considered certain before the elections were held.

Before the NRW elections, Chrupalla made optimistic assessments: Schleswig-Holstein was purely an election of individuals with great satisfaction with the state government and the Prime Minister.

“It looks a bit different in NRW.” So it seems unlikely that the AfD will be thrown out of the state parliament in the most populous federal state.

But the party still has to tremble.