The Swedish and Finnish governments, who want to join NATO together, displayed almost perfect coordination this Sunday.
At midday, a membership project was presented in Helsinki by the executive.
During a press conference broadcast live, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said it was a "
historic day
", a "
new era that is dawning
".
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The accession of Finland and Sweden, a strategic transformation for NATO
This document could be approved this Monday in Parliament, where the large majority enjoyed by the Social Democrat Prime Minister Sanna Marin leaves no doubt about the outcome of the ballot.
In Stockholm, a few hours later, the ruling Social Democratic Party also announced its desire to see the Nordic kingdom join NATO, with the reservation that it does not want a permanent base or nuclear weapons on the national territory.
For the Prime Minister, Madgalena Andersson, this is what can best guarantee "
the security of the Swedish people
", while Russian actions "
in the immediate vicinity of Sweden
" are not excluded.
These decisions are not surprising.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, opinions traditionally hostile to NATO in Sweden and Finland have turned around (48% pro-NATO in Sweden, 76% in Finland), and these countries were among the first to send arms to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Swedish Social Democrats, to ratify and explain their express rallying to the Atlantic Alliance, organized three national debates with their activists.
In Finland, a government report assessing the consequences of joining NATO was completed on April 13, then examined by parliamentarians.
Choice recruits
What is striking, however, is the speed of this decision-making.
Because the non-alignment of the two Nordic countries came from afar.
Finland, which shares a 1340 kilometer border with Russia, was forced for many decades to the doctrine of "neither West - nor East" by Moscow, and until recently maintained privileged relations with its big neighbor.
Sweden, which has not known conflicts on its soil for two centuries, spared by the two world wars, has long cherished its “
freedom of alliance
”.
As Foreign Minister Ann Linde said again in January, “
it has served us, it continues to serve us, and we have no intention of changing it
”.
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But the war in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin's desire to challenge the security order in Europe have changed everything.
"
The key point was the ukase of Vladimir Putin who wanted to ban Finland and Sweden from joining NATO
," explains Tuomas Forsberg, professor of international relations at the University of Helsinki.
Public opinion then understood that this crisis was not going to concern only Ukraine
.
"
The attack on Ukraine, with its disregard for human life and the independence of a small state, tipped the balance
," adds Jakob Hallgren, director of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs,
adding to the fact that Finland took the first step towards NATO… Sweden would never have gone there alone
.”
NATO, in any case, is preparing to welcome two recruits of choice.
Already members of the Partnership for Peace since the mid-1990s, host countries for maneuvers of the Atlantic Alliance, they will be able to integrate into it quickly.
They will also contribute to the defense of NATO's northern borders in a strategic area - the Arctic and the Baltic - and with armed forces in full revival.
The Russian threat prompted Sweden, in 2015, to increase its military budget again, and two years later to restore military service.
Finland, last December, announced the acquisition of 64 American F-35 fighter planes, for more than 8.4 billion euros.
A purchase - the largest ever made by the Finnish army - which will allow it to have the same fleet as Denmark or Norway,
already members of NATO.
Finland would now devote 2% of its GDP to its defense effort, a threshold that Sweden hopes to cross in the near future.
Potential risks
Under these conditions, an official request from the two countries could be sent this week to the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, in Brussels.
One question remains: this accession having to be ratified by the Parliaments of the thirty countries already members, what will happen during this period which could last for many months and during which Sweden and Finland will not yet be able to benefit from the famous article 5, which guarantees the automatic support of all allies in the event of an attack?
The two applicants have certainly received assurances from the European Union, the United States, and the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, but they also remember the threats of Vladimir Putin who in February promised "
serious military and political repercussions
" .
Expert Jakob Hallgren, however, doesn't believe it: “
Vladimir Putin has a whole catalog of measures he can use ranging from disinformation to cyberattacks, but a military operation is highly unlikely.
He is very busy in Ukraine, and if this membership phase were compromised by actions on the Russian side, NATO would not remain unresponsive
.”
So many potential risks that will be assessed during the state visit that the Finnish president will make on Tuesday and Wednesday in Sweden.