Green traffic light kings, SPD in crisis: is Scholz to blame?
Black-green and “Laschet model” are dawning
Created: 05/15/2022, 23:55
By: Florian Naumann
Chancellor and ministers of the traffic light coalition: Olaf Scholz (centre), Economics Minister Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
© Michael Kappeler/dpa
Olaf Scholz' victory in the federal election surprised everyone.
But now old ideas are flaring up: black-green and possibly even the Laschet model - initially only in NRW.
Düsseldorf/Munich – The “small federal election” is over.
Above all, the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia raised new questions.
It is unclear which coalition will govern the country in the future - especially black-green and, rather unlikely, the traffic lights seemed conceivable according to the projections on Sunday evening (May 15).
And then there is also federal politics: Chancellor Olaf Scholz could slowly get into trouble.
The SPD has now lost two state elections in a row, after Schleswig-Holstein also North Rhine-Westphalia.
Another traffic light party shares the problem with her.
The FDP made massive losses on both election evenings.
The liberals had already shown themselves restless before the election in North Rhine-Westphalia: For example, with a mini scandal during a chancellor's appearance in the defense committee on Friday.
Now the question is whether the FDP will remain stable in the federal traffic light – or whether it wants to change course.
And whether the power arithmetic in the Berlin coalition will change with the next success of the Greens.
The Greens currently seem to be the only winner in the traffic light.
NRW election: Scholz complicit in the SPD flop?
Habeck and Baerbock probably give the Greens success
Political scientist Volker Kronenberg saw Scholz as at least an accomplice in the SPD's recent election flop.
His election campaign support had rather negative effects, he judged in the
Kölnische Rundschau
.
The SPD is suffering from its federal policy - especially from the war in Ukraine.
Kronenberg condemned the fact that the party, despite its historically poor result for NRW, was thinking loudly about a coalition under its own leadership, as “political hocus-pocus”.
It is quite conceivable that Scholz has a share in the misery: According to a "Tagesschau" analysis based on an Infratest Dimap survey, only around half of the NRW voters were satisfied with the Chancellor's work.
According to the report, more than 60 percent of the survey participants agreed with the Green Ministers Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock.
The Greens then also benefited from a significant inflow from the SPD ranks in the voter migration.
It wasn't due to top candidate Mona Neubaur - a native Bavarian in North Rhine-Westphalia.
44 percent of the Infratest-Dimap respondents stated that they did not know Neubaur at all, only 22 percent were "satisfied" with the Green Party.
And in a survey by the Wahlen research group for ZDF, Neubaur lagged behind Habeck and Scholz in popularity, but also the top candidates Wüst and Thomas Kutschaty.
So an election that decided federal politics?
Completely different from the assessment of SPD leader Lars Klingbeil, who considered "state political decisions" to be decisive?
It doesn't seem that easy either.
Because CDU leader Friedrich Merz does even worse than Neubaur in the research group election survey – and worse than Scholz in Infratest-Dimap.
A group of experts from the WDR was largely in agreement on Sunday evening: the CDU voters in North Rhine-Westphalia have ticked what appears to be the least evil for them with Wüst's party.
NRW election: Looking for a new Laschet?
Scholz is criticized - black and green is the topic of the day again
One way or another: On the evening of the election, the FDP tended to squint towards the CDU when looking for culprits.
"We have seen that our coalition partner has claimed many successes that are ultimately our responsibility," said top candidate Joachim Stamp at Phoenix.
“Especially when you look at the economic and political successes we have had in North Rhine-Westphalia.
In the election campaign there wasn't that much left of the much-vaunted black and yellow love - we also take note of that."
A joke on the election night: In view of the electoral success of CDU Prime Minister Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein and the weakness of the SPD, the first calls for the Laschet model are being made at the federal level - or at least for the integrative leadership style for which Armin Laschet was once praised in North Rhine-Westphalia .
Günther appeared as "a hug towards his previous partners FDP and Greens", commented about the
daily mirror
.
The CDU had also positioned Laschet as a “team player” before the federal election.
Ukraine, climate and teamwork: Greens appear as NRW winners, Wüst is required
Olaf Scholz would not be able to do that with conviction.
But the situation is complex.
Hugging apparently does not ensure success either: when Laschet resigned in North Rhine-Westphalia in October, the CDU ranked 9 percentage points behind the SPD in some polls.
That was good for the FDP, which was 13 percent.
The change could obviously not matter to the Greens, who were already flying high in the NRW Sunday issues.
One thing remained the same from October to May: black and yellow gambled away its majority in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Even if Laschet Wüst congratulated him on catching up in a strangely calm mood.
Whether that will be a problem for the CDU, or whether black-green, like in Schleswig-Holstein, will be a successful model is ultimately up to Hendrik Wüst.
Whether the resentment of the FDP splits the traffic light – Olaf Scholz has to deal with this problem.
If, contrary to expectations, it happened like this: black-green could also get back on the agenda in the federal government.
Or even green and black: Some see Habeck as a “shadow chancellor”.
With the climate, the Greens have an upcoming permanent issue.
And with the Ukraine conflict, a second one was successfully occupied.
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