Is the use of nuclear weapons still "reasonable" for Putin?
Expert warns West of two Ukraine scenarios
Created: 05/15/2022, 17:55
By: Bettina Menzel
Political scientist Ivan Krastev at the Frankfurt Book Fair in 2019 (archive image).
© Manfred Segerer / Imago
An Eastern Europe expert estimates that the Ukraine conflict will not come to an end anytime soon.
From Putin's point of view, the use of nuclear weapons could make sense.
Sofia - The Ukraine conflict will keep Europe in suspense for a long time to come, with no quick end in sight.
At least that's what the renowned Eastern Europe expert Ivan Krastev thinks.
In an interview with
Welt am Sonntag
, he warned that the Ukraine war could not only get dicey if Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine was successful - but especially if things were going badly for the Russian president.
Krastev does not rule out the use of nuclear weapons by Putin.
Putin and the threat of nuclear weapons: no real peace at the end of the Ukraine conflict, just a ceasefire
The 57-year-old political scientist Krastev writes regular columns for the
New York Times
and other media, works at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and heads the Center for Liberal Strategies in the Bulgarian capital Sofia.
Krastev knows Russian President Vladimir Putin personally.
Krastev does not expect the Ukraine conflict to end quickly, as both sides cannot make any concessions.
In addition, even at the end of the conflict there will be no real peace, only a ceasefire.
"In this situation, both sides can conclude a ceasefire, but no one can agree on a peace agreement, even if negotiations continue," explains the political scientist.
Krastev compares the situation to the end of the Korean War.
The Korean peninsula is still in a state of war under international law, as no peace treaty has yet been signed.
Russia's nuclear weapons: "The West should fear that things are going really badly for Putin"
The political expert also commented on the consequences of the war and the possible use of nuclear weapons: “The West should fear two things above all.
On the one hand, of course, that Putin's attack was successful," said Krastev.
"But paradoxically, things are going really badly for him," the Eastern Europe expert makes clear.
It is clear that Putin would then be willing to cross certain borders.
"From Putin's point of view, the use of nuclear weapons can make sense," explains the 57-year-old.
He's not talking about a nuclear war that would mean the end of the world.
"But to attack Ukraine with nuclear weapons to show that he is ready to cross any border, that's possible," Krastev said.
Because this conflict is also about sending precisely such signals.
The military, especially those from the USA, could assess this more precisely, says the political scientist: "It's unbelievable how precise their military analyzes have been in the past few months," Krastev comments on the reports from the USA.
But for the Americans it is also a risk to talk about nuclear weapons.
Ukraine war: political expert explains Scholz' "cool" reaction
In the West, the war is also being waged through public opinion, Krastev continues to analyse.
The political scientist attests to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's "very reserved, almost cool" reaction when he talks about the Ukraine war.
"It is very important for him to show that he makes strategic, calculated decisions and is not driven by emotions," said Krastev in the
world on Sunday
.
Because Scholz knows exactly how much Angela Merkel was criticized for apparently emotional decisions, for example when she opened the borders to Syrian refugees in 2015.
This route is calculated, the Chancellor is waiting for public opinion to change in two or three months.
The then Federal Minister of Finance and today's Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2020 at a meeting with the Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev in Berlin (archive photo).
© Thomas Imo/photothek.net / Imago
Krastev also assumes that the debate about the Ukraine crisis in Germany will intensify.
In public opinion, "there are currently two opposing sides: those who want peace and those who want justice for Ukraine," Krastev said.
Which side of the debate will gain the upper hand also depends on the events in Ukraine, "because people are very influenced by events." Besides, people tend to "trivialize things in our lives - even the most terrible things like this war.” The Putin expert therefore expects that people will no longer follow the war so closely in the long term, which will ease the pressure on politicians.
"Russia will rely on this effect of fatigue and will talk a lot internationally about peace and that Ukraine does not want to negotiate," said Krastev.
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