State elections in NRW: prognosis and first projections - CDU clearly ahead of SPD, FDP must tremble
Created: 05/15/2022, 19:56
By: Marcus Giebel, Anna-Katharina Ahnefeld, Magdalena Fürthauer
In North Rhine-Westphalia, a new state parliament will be elected today, Sunday, May 15, 2022.
The first projections and forecasts are updated again and again in the evening.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: On May 15, 2022, people were asked to go to the polls until 6 p.m.
Official results will be available from Sunday, but a survey sees the CDU just ahead.
This
news ticker on the projections and forecasts for the state elections in NRW 2022
is constantly updated.
Update from May 15, 7.45 p.m .:
Should the FDP and/or AfD ultimately fail to re-enter the state parliament, that would have significant consequences.
Update from May 15, 7.30 p.m .:
The new ZDF projection sees a gap of 8.2 percent between the CDU and SPD.
The FDP and AfD are now tied at 5.5 percent.
The Greens are the third strongest force with 18.2 percent.
The ARD even sees 8.7 percent between the main parties, here the Greens come to 18.1 percent, the AfD to 5.6 percent and the FDP to 5.5 percent.
Up-to-date projections and forecasts for the 2022 state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia
ARD/infratest dimap | CDU | SPD | Green | FDP | AfD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7:28 p.m | 35.7% | 27% | 18.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% |
ZDF/research group elections | CDU | SPD | Green | FDP | AfD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7:25 p.m | 35.4% | 27.2% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% |
Update from May 15, 7:15 p.m .:
The FDP can breathe easy.
the Liberals are a few tenths of a percentage point above the five percent mark in the latest projections.
Update from May 15, 6.45 p.m .:
The second ARD projection shows an even clearer lead for the CDU over the SPD.
Meanwhile, the FDP remains stable at five percent, but must continue to tremble.
The liberals can feel a little safer on ZDF - the gap between the CDU and SPD is also narrower there.
Update from May 15, 6:31 p.m .:
Little ends after the first projection.
It remains exciting about the FDP, which is still at five percent.
Update from May 15, 6:15 p.m .:
In the
ARD
interview, SPD Secretary General Kevin Kühnert indicates the possibility of a red-green state government.
This does not go unanswered in the CDU.
Projections and prognosis of the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: CDU clear election winner
Update from May 15, 6:02 p.m.:
According to the forecast, the CDU is the clear winner of the election.
However, it would not be enough for a continuation of black and yellow.
The FDP even has to worry about re-entering the state parliament.
Update from May 15, 5:55 p.m .:
The wait is about to end.
Then there is the prognosis
Update from May 15, 4:55 p.m.:
Overall, the voter turnout up to 4 p.m. was 53.35 percent.
However, by this time in 2017, around 59 percent of citizens had already voted.
At that time, 65.2 percent of those taking part in the election ultimately cast their votes.
Update from May 15, 4:35 p.m.:
In Cologne, 46.87 percent of the citizens called for elections had cast their votes by 4 p.m.
For comparison: five years ago it was 51.74 percent at the same time.
Update from May 15, 1:15 p.m .:
In the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, almost 36 percent of those entitled to vote cast their votes by Sunday noon.
The value is slightly higher than in the previous election of 2017 at the same time, said the state election management in Düsseldorf.
At that time it was 34 percent at 12 noon.
The values are based on random samples, and postal voters also count.
A woman throws her ballot for the North Rhine-Westphalia state elections into a ballot box at a polling station in Essen.
© Fabian Strauch/dpa
Election showdown in the "Swing State" NRW: When will the result be?
Update from May 15, 12:45 p.m .:
In the North Rhine-Westphalian city of Bielefeld, according to dpa, by 10 a.m. on Sunday, 30.6 percent of those eligible to vote in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia were already voting.
In Essen, the turnout at around 12 p.m. was 25 percent, as the city announced on its website.
The city of Dortmund has also already announced the first figures on voter turnout: So far, as of 10.45 a.m., almost 10.8 percent of those eligible to vote have voted.
Projections and prognosis for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: the result is known on Monday morning
Update from May 15, 10:27 a.m
.: The preliminary official result of the 2022 NRW election is expected to be announced early Monday morning.
The first forecasts will probably be published when the polling stations close at 6 p.m.
They are based on local election polls.
The city of Cologne is already registering a higher voter turnout on this election Sunday morning than in the previous election at the same time.
Across NRW in 2017, this was a total of 65.2 percent.
PHOTOMONTAGE: state elections in NRW.
Hendrik Wuest (CDU) or Thomas Kutschaty (SPD)?
The race between the top candidates in the 2022 state elections on May 15th.
in NRW is tight.
Thomas KUTSCHATY, top candidate of the NRW SPD and chairman of the SPD state parliamentary group, and SPD top candidate for the 2022 state elections, in front of his campaign bus, © IMAGO/Malte Ossowski/SVEN SIMON
The fact that NRW has long since ceased to be the “home state” of the SPD is shown by the fact that the CDU and SPD have alternated in government in recent years.
In 2017, the CDU and FDP formed a coalition; in the previous legislative period, a red-green alliance was at the helm.
In some of the most recent NRW election polls, it was not enough for a red-green majority.
Many are assuming a head-to-head race between CDU Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and SPD challenger Thomas Kutschaty.
"Small federal election": projections and forecasts for the 2022 NRW election
Update from May 15, 9.10 a.m .:
The eagerly awaited state election in North Rhine-Westphalia has begun.
The polling stations have been open since 8 a.m.
Around 13 million people are entitled to vote in the most populous federal state.
The first forecast of the outcome of the election is expected shortly after the polling stations close at 6 p.m.
Among the state elections this year, the NRW election is the most important indicator for the federal parties and the governing traffic light coalition under SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Because of the high number of eligible voters, it is also known as the "small federal election".
State elections in NRW: First projections and forecasts from Sunday
First report from May 14, 8 p.m.:
Düsseldorf - On Sunday, May 15th, the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia will take place.
Around 13.2 million people are allowed to cast their votes, whether in advance by postal vote or directly on site with the ballot paper at the ballot box.
The first official extrapolation of the outcome of the election is expected around 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
However, the first forecasts based on representative surveys for the NRW elections could already come in during the course of the day.
Projections and prognosis for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: the survey sees the CDU ahead of the SPD
It is still unclear how things will continue in the state that Armin Laschet has ruled for years from Sunday.
However, polls indicate a head-to-head race between the CDU's top candidate Hendrik Wüst and his opponent Thomas Kutschaty (SPD).
In a survey by the Insa Institute, the CDU is even predicted to have a slight lead.
According to this, she should get 32 percent of the votes on Sunday, the SPD, on the other hand, 28 percent.
Such a result would be somewhat better for the CDU than previous polls had led us to believe.
Political party | CDU | SPD | FDP | Green | AfD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll Results 2022 | 32 percent | 28 percent | 8 percent | 16 percent | 7 percent |
State election 2017 | 33 percent | 31.2 percent | 12.6 percent | 6.4 percent | 7.4 percent |
Top candidate 2022 | Hendrik Wust | Thomas Kuchaty | Joachim Stamp | Mona Neubauer | Martin Vincentz |
The approval values of the other parties and candidates in North Rhine-Westphalia remain unchanged in this Insa survey: The Greens should therefore come in third place with 16 percent, the FDP comes to eight percent, the AfD to seven.
The left would fail with three percent at the five percent hurdle.
Video: What you need to know about the state elections in NRW 2022
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: projections and forecasts on Sunday
It is still unclear which party will nominate the future prime minister.
According to the survey, however, the current black-yellow government coalition would no longer have a majority.
The first forecasts on Sunday should provide information about this.
Incidentally, a prognosis is a post-election survey that is then applied to all eligible voters according to statistical characteristics.
An extrapolation, on the other hand, refers to the first results from individual constituencies and can therefore only be prepared after the elections have closed.
The result of the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia can therefore be eagerly awaited.
The last rallies of the top candidates on Friday, including in Cologne, Bonn and Düsseldorf, marked the end of the election campaign.
They were supported by the nationwide leaders of their parties.
(mef/afp/dpa)
