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Elections in Lebanon: Hezbollah suffered a blow in parliament, but is still far from a political crash - Walla! news

2022-05-16T20:20:16.686Z


The truth results from all 15 districts have not yet been received - but the partial count shows that the Shiite Hezbollah camp is suffering surprising losses. However, experts believe that the real importance of this weakening will be revealed only in the October presidential election.


Lebanon elections: Hezbollah suffered a blow in parliament, but is still far from a political crash

The truth results from all 15 districts have not yet been received - but the partial count shows that the Shiite Hezbollah camp is suffering surprising losses.

However, experts believe that the real importance of this weakening will be revealed only in the October presidential election.

Tali Goldstein

16/05/2022

Monday, 16 May 2022, 19:19 Updated: 22:49

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Lebanon voted yesterday (Sunday) in the first parliamentary elections since 2018, while the country is mired in one of the most severe economic crises it has ever experienced.

According to preliminary and surprising results, Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies have not only lost seats in areas they have traditionally ruled in the past - but also the majority they won in parliament in the 2018 elections.

Commentators in the global media were quick to celebrate the upheaval and the change inherent in it for the people and the small country, formerly known as the "Switzerland of the Middle East".



"The people spoke and said, 'We are against Hezbollah, against the establishment, and that's what we want,'" Lori Hittian, the leader of the opposition Tadkum party, told CNBC.

However, according to Dr. Eddie Cohen, an Orientalist and researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center, the joy is premature - and perhaps even baseless.



"Even if Hezbollah loses 3-4 seats, it will not change much internally. Hezbollah has already taken over the country - and determines everything in it. On the other hand, the weakening of the organization can affect the identity of the next president - and here lies the real importance of his situation. "Hezbollah's weakening was significant only in the October presidential election," he told Walla !.

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The weakening of Hezbollah could have an impact on dependence on Iran.

Nasrallah (Photo: Reuters)

Lebanon, a nation of nearly 7 million people, has 18 separate religious communities.

Because of this, the consensus government, or unity, relies on a power-sharing structure in which the prime minister, president and parliamentary speaker must come from the three major religious groups in the country - Sunni, Maronite-Christian and Shiite respectively.



According to Cohen, in Lebanon, the new parliament must elect a spokesman - a position held by Nabiya Berry of the Shiite Amal Shiite party, which has supported Hezbollah, since 1992 - before appointing a prime minister to form a cabinet.

Later this year, lawmakers are also scheduled to elect a president, replacing incumbent President Michel Aoun, whose term ends on October 31.

"Any delay in the formation of the cabinet - a process that may take months - will also lead to a delay in the reforms required in dealing with the deep economic crisis," Cohen explained.



In light of the deep division in parliament between Hezbollah's allies and its opponents, which stood out in particular in the current election, some commentators believe that this situation will again lead to stagnation or delay, while various factions will try to formulate a new coalition agreement.

"What politics will we have other than ethnic tension and a replay of the conflicts we have already experienced?"

Muhammad Haj Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center researched in an interview with Reuters.



"When they form the new government, we will be able to see what happens," Cohen said.

"But this is a job that could take years. There could be a situation where we reach October without a government and without a president - and Lebanon will find itself in a political vacuum again," he added.

"Do not see Abraham's agreement in the future"

Internally, according to Cohen, the weakening of Hezbollah could have an impact on dependence on Iran.

"The country may stop receiving foreign and foreign aid from Iran, stop buying drugs, food and fuel from it, and instead turn to Saudi Arabia for aid or to the Americans. Such a scenario would return Lebanon to the West and prevent its isolation while desperate for aid. Right now, Sunni Gulf states do not want "To help Lebanon because of Hezbollah's control over it. If the organization weakens and the Christian parties become stronger, they can turn to the West and the Gulf states, arguing that they have no more excuse for not helping the country."



For Israel, even if Hezbollah's political influence weakens, Cohen is not so optimistic.

"Israel is 'assigned' in Lebanon, it is unlikely that even the Christian camp will ask for peace with Israel or an agreement such as the Abrahamic Agreements. For Israel, these changes have no effect," he said.

"Of course," he added, "it would be better for Israel if the United States were the stirrer in the region, and not Iran, but I do not see an Abraham agreement in the future."



For the Lebanese people, nothing seems to change the despair and frustration they feel.

According to official figures, only 41% of eligible voters voted in the Lebanese election yesterday - less even than in 2018, when 49% went to the polls.

"A large part of those 41% must have received bribes to go out to vote. Without money, only 20% would have voted. Corruption has not disappeared," Cohen said.

Al-Hariri (Photo: Reuters)

The partial results showed that an opposition candidate managed to register a significant achievement in southern Lebanon, in an area controlled by Hezbollah.

Elias Jardi, an ophthalmologist, won the Christian Orthodox seat, formerly held by Assad Harden from the National Socialist Party (SSNP), an ally of Hezbollah and a member of parliament since 1992. "This is a fresh start for the whole of southern and Lebanon," he told Reuters excitedly.



In addition, the Lebanese Forces Christian Party (LF), which has close ties with the United States and Saudi Arabia, is likely to become the largest Christian party in parliament, replacing the Christian Free Patriotic Movement - an ally of Hezbollah.



They also pointed to victories for at least five independent candidates, who competed on a platform of reforms and imposing responsibilities on elite politicians accused of leading Lebanon to the worst crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.



However, as Cohen explained, "there is no such thing in Lebanon as a completely unidentified and independent candidate. Perhaps the candidates declared during the pre-election campaign that they do not identify with any of the lists to rake in support from the desperate people, but after the election there are two options: either Hezbollah threatens "They must join his camp, or they will join it out of some interest. No independent candidate can stand in the Lebanese parliament. It is a good trick of candidates to ensure change for the people, but it is mostly election propaganda,



" Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal movement, retained control of the Muslim Shiite representation, winning all the seats reserved for their community, according to partial data.



According to Cohen, the fact that there is no Sunni candidate in the elections this year (due to the resignation of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri last year) will probably strengthen Hezbollah, even if it loses several seats in parliament.

"The bullet is now between Christians and Shiites. Hezbollah can intimidate everyone, threaten them, assassinate them or simply buy them and form a coalition," he explained.

Who will help the people?

In April, a tragedy occurred in Lebanon.

Dozens of Lebanese boarded a ship to immigrate to Turkey because of the difficult economic situation.

But the ship sank off the coast of Tripoli, at least seven of the passengers perished and many others are still missing.

The incident, which once again illustrated the terrible situation for the Lebanese, provoked protests against the government and large demonstrations took place in cities across the country.

During the riots in the capital Beirut, about six people were killed.

The demonstrators demanded that those responsible for the difficult situation in their country be prosecuted.



One of the few things, according to Cohen, that can help the Lebanese people today, compared to stakeholders, is whether the regime is based on serial democracy (Consensual Democracy - a regime that strengthens the existence of several national groups in the country, and ensures true partnership in government, resources and decision-making). , Will indeed return to conduct itself according to its basic principles.



"In a regime like this, everyone is making an effort to cooperate. This is the amazing cooperation that existed until the 1970s in Lebanon. If everyone now cooperates, if there is an agreed-upon candidate for everyone to be appointed prime minister, that will be the way to help the people. It will happen, especially in light of the fact that the Sunnis did not compete at all this year, "Cohen said.

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Source: walla

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