Epidemic | The sixth wave of the outbreak is in the upcoming fifth wave. Big data in Hong Kong shows that the epidemic is worsening

Although the fifth wave of the epidemic has passed its peak in March, the current epidemic is still hovering at the level of 200 to 300 cases per day. After social distancing measures were relaxed, multiple clusters broke out.

Leung Cheuk-wai, an expert advisor to the government and dean of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, infers with a virus calculation model that if one is not careful, there will be a sixth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong in two weeks, which will arouse the attention of the whole city.

Kwok Kin-an, an assistant professor at the School of Public Health and Primary Care at CUHK, believes that the peak of the outbreak is expected in autumn and winter, and stressed that the sixth wave will only occur when a new variant of the virus hits Hong Kong, and now it is only the fifth wave.

Will the sixth wave break out in the short term?

The "Real-time Effective Reproduction Rate of Local Cases" compiled by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong rose to 0.9932, a two-month high.

▼On May 15, the "Yu Shan Private Kitchen" in Kwun Tong Industrial Building exploded ▼

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Hong Kong University Liang Zhuowei expects the sixth wave to peak in early July

Leung Cheuk-wai recently showed doctors a virus calculation model from 2020 to the present on an internal online forum of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong. It is expected that the sixth wave of the epidemic will break out in Hong Kong in two weeks and peak in early July.

Liang inferred that the sixth wave of the Omicron BA.2 virus strain will continue to circulate, and even if there are sporadic cases of BA.4 or BA.5, the outbreak will not be as severe as that in European and American countries.

Gao Benn, chair professor of epidemiology at the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong, is more advanced than Leung Cheuk-wai, pointing out that Hong Kong has entered the sixth wave of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases will increase in the next few weeks. .

The "Real-time Effective Reproduction Rate of Local Cases" of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong has reached a two-month high of 0.9932.

The "Real-time Effective Reproduction Rate of Local Cases" compiled by the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong using information such as citizen travel data, as of May 15, showed that it had reached 0.9932, a two-month high. There is an upward trend, so it is inferred that the number of infections will rebound in the future.

CUHK Guo Jianan expects the peak of outbreaks in autumn and winter

Kwok Kin-an, Assistant Professor of the School of Public Health and Primary Care at CUHK, believes that he and his team are optimistic about the changes in the epidemic in the next two weeks. It is expected that the peak of the outbreak will be in autumn and winter, because the vaccination time of the citizens is far away and their immunity will be weakened. and new variants, etc., and emphasized that the sixth wave will only break out if there are new variants, and now it is only the aftermath of the fifth wave.

▼On May 13, the Department of Health visited Xingyue Building, Sheung Wan▼

Hong Kong University Pan Liewen: It is unusual for the virus in the sewage of Xihuan Village

Leung Cheuk-wai pointed out that a large-scale housing estate test conducted in Sai Wan Village showed a positive infection rate of 1.3%, which was 10 times higher than the infection rate of about 0.1% for the entire Hong Kong population.

Pan Liewen, a professor at the School of Public Health of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, added that the overall positive infection rate of 0.1% includes the calculation of all the test results in the past period, that is, the compulsory testing and enclosed testing accepted by the general public.

Poon pointed out that in the past, the positive values ​​of sewage from other housing estates usually remained at about several thousand to more than 100,000 units per liter, but the virus in Sai Wan Village suddenly reached millions, which is "unusual and rare".

▼May 12 Enclosure inspection of Xihuan Village▼

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Liang Zichao: It is normal for local outbreaks of local infection cases to vary

Respiratory system expert Liang Zichao said in an interview with Hong Kong 01 that there will be no sixth wave in the next two weeks. Taking Indonesia and the Philippines as examples, the two countries also experienced a full-scale outbreak of Omicron, and dropped sharply after the peak, and the number of cases remained at Hundreds of cases.

The immediate transmission rate is in the "running rampant" stage, reflecting the slowdown in the epidemic, similar to that in Hong Kong.

He also pointed out that the possibility of an outbreak in winter is higher because the virus is more likely to spread in a low temperature environment, but he emphasized that the proportion of the susceptible population in Hong Kong has dropped. will explode.

Liang Zichao believes that it is normal for occasional outbreaks in local areas, and explained that the cumulative infection rate in the Central and Western District was only 5% to 6%, while the infection rate in other areas, such as Wong Tai Sin, has reached 12% to 13%.

After the government relaxed social distancing measures, a large number of citizens in the district went out, and the chance of infection among the uninfected population increased greatly, resulting in local outbreaks.

▼On May 12, the Department of Health announced the outbreak of "Xinwanghui"▼

Urge to tighten regional arrival requirements from new variant virus

Liang Zichao said that the Omicron subvariant virus invaded South Africa and the United States and became the mainstream virus.

If the new variant flows into the community, I am afraid it will repeat the mistakes of the fifth wave and induce the sixth wave, so the key to whether the sixth wave will break out if the external defense input becomes the sixth wave.

He suggested that the government tighten the arrival requirements for areas with new variants of the virus and strengthen monitoring, while suggesting that arrivals use isolation facilities instead of quarantine hotels for quarantine.

He also pointed out that the nucleic acid test currently carried out on the fifth day should be postponed to the seventh day to ensure that the risk of the virus entering the community is reduced.

Epidemic | He Bailiang pointed out that the outbreak of the restaurant group is expected: it is not possible to let minor cases affect the normal epidemic situation | One article shows that the four groups of the outbreak in May, a total of 97 people, recruited more than half of the Xingyuelou, a total of 41 cases, three Half of the diners in the building have been recruited with confirmed diagnoses. Waiters are staying in Sai Wan Village to check the outbreak of the epidemic. "Yu Shan Private Kitchen" in Kwun Tong Industrial Building No one answers the door.