The harm of the Ukrainian war is mainly reflected in three aspects. First, from Putin’s point of view, the war has made Russia the most thoroughly weakened and isolated since the Cold War in terms of politics, economy, military affairs, and diplomacy. Losses, Western sanctions will lead to a further weakening of Russia's national strength, and a greater gap with the world's average technology level. At least in the next 10 to 20 years, it will be difficult for Russia's economy and people's livelihood to turn over.
In addition, Russia has been expelled from some important international organizations, and its international status and political influence will be significantly reduced.
Second, the war brought a great impact on world peace, development and stability, leading to the basic disintegration and collapse of the Yalta system in Central and Eastern Europe after the war. The war unexpectedly consolidated the Western unity of the United States and Europe, and exacerbated the conflict between China and the West. The tearing and confrontation between the two countries has accelerated the world into a "new cold war" pattern.
At the economic level, because Russia and Ukraine are both important exporters of raw materials and grains in the world, the war has also pushed up the international prices of raw materials, posing a huge threat to the security of the world economy, grain and industrial chain.
Third, the war cemented American alliances and hegemonic systems both in result and in substance.
The United States is the biggest beneficiary of the war. In addition to satisfying the interests of the US arms and energy business, the war has weakened Russia as a military competitor, and it has also weakened Europe's already very limited economic and military security strategic autonomy.
In terms of the degree of damage caused by the war, Ukraine, Russia, and Europe are the most severely damaged countries and regions. The refugee flow and the energy crisis brought about by sanctions will cause headaches in Europe.
As Yan Xuetong, dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, recently wrote in the magazine Foreign Affairs, the war also brought huge commercial losses to China and exacerbated tensions between China and Europe and some of its neighbors. Pushing China into a dilemma that is more difficult to balance.
After the war, Russia and its proxies tried to drag China into the "cold war" and even the "hot war". The far-right conservative forces in the West also tried to tie China and Russia to the opposite side of the international community, and took the opportunity to push forward with China. "Decoupling" to achieve its goal of isolating China requires a particularly robust and superb diplomatic resolve to avoid being "dragged into the water" by any party.
All of the above are based on the analysis of the consequences of the war from a current or short-term perspective. From a longer-term historical perspective, it is another matter.
From a historical perspective that escapes the limitations of the current vision and the foundation of the international order, and puts this war into the history of Russian territorial expansion since the fifteenth century, launching this war is definitely worthwhile for the expansion of the territory and interests of the Russian nation of.
The picture shows Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the World War II victory commemoration event in Moscow on May 9.
(AP)
In order to justify launching the war, Russia named the war a "special military operation" in order to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine, but putting aside these superficial political terms, its essence It is a war for the possession and control of (part of) Ukraine's territory.
At the beginning, Putin planned to take a north-south pincer offensive to lock in the possession of the entire eastern Ukraine. After the full-scale offensive became increasingly frustrated, he switched to a key offensive and narrowed his goal to occupying the eastern Donbass area.
Taking advantage of the weakness of the opponent, first creating chaos and disputes in the opponent's territory, and then taking advantage of the chaos, directly occupying it through military operations, or providing military support to incite the independence of the occupied areas and bring them into the scope of actual control. It has been Russia for hundreds of years. Come to the most skilled way of territorial expansion.
China is also one of the biggest victims in history.
Since the 15th century, Russia has been expanding its territory to the surrounding areas in a similar way, becoming the largest country in the world with an area of more than 17 million square kilometers across Europe and Asia.
Peter I, Catherine and other most influential tsars in Russian history, not because of their achievements in the modernization process of the Russian country or the construction of economic and people's livelihood, without exception, all because of their reign During this period, he frequently instigated wars to expand the territory and left a historical reputation.
Although the Ukrainian war is the product of the conflicts and conflicts of interests between Russia and the United States and Europe in the past 30 years, it has a complex background of the times.
However, as long as you are not trapped by your own value preferences, and you have enough historical insight, you can look past the superficial shadow cast by the great era and you can find that it is just a new addition to this historical script by the "new tsar" Putin. Just a chapter.
The picture shows a destroyed Russian tank on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 8, and Ukrainian residents took pictures.
(AP)
Therefore, although the Russian army has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine since the outbreak of the war, and various inaccuracy performances are shocking, the military decision-making level of the Russian military command and the General Staff is not to be commended, and the economic and people's livelihood is even more because of the unprecedented severe sanctions by the United States and Europe. The losses are heavy, but from the perspective of the expansion of Russia as a nation-state, and judging by the gains and losses of the Russians, these seem to be necessary "costs" of expansion.
Throughout history, it can be found that since Russia embarked on the process of expansion, similar scenarios are not uncommon.
For hundreds of years, from the short-term perspective of the contemporary era, Russia has often suffered heavy losses in foreign wars, but from a long-term historical perspective, they have always relied on Russia's national resilience and sacrifice to drag down their opponents first. Died, and finally achieved the goal of territorial expansion at a painful price.
Of course, whether this kind of territorial expansion conforms to modern values and the international order is another matter. From a modern political perspective, it definitely violates the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
In terms of the gains and losses of this war alone, although Russia suffered heavy losses in the short term, in the long run, in terms of the nation's expansionist tradition, and from the perspective of Russia's self-interest, it may be worthwhile.
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