Result almost tripled: Greens storm to NRW record - there are several reasons for this
Created: 05/16/2022, 11:12 am
By: Bettina Menzel
The NRW top candidate Mona Neubaur (2nd from right) is happy together with the NRW Greens leader Felix Banaszak (3rd from right) and other colleagues after the first forecasts on Sunday (15.5.) at the Greens' election party.
© picture alliance/dpa |
Friso Gentsch
The Greens achieve the best NRW result in their party history and thus send a strong signal to Berlin.
Initial surveys show possible reasons for the success.
Düsseldorf – According to projections, the Greens achieved a record result of around 18.1 percent in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday.
The survey experts are apparently already finding the first explanations for the historically best election result in NRW: According to them, the plus of the Greens can be explained by specific expertise, a grown reputation and the performance of the party in the federal government.
Similarities in content between the SPD and CDU also played into the Greens' hands.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: Greens achieve historically best election results
Election poster by Mona Neubaur, top candidate of the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The Greens achieved a record result in the 2022 state elections.
© Rüdiger Wölk / Imago
According to projections by ARD and ZDF, the Greens almost tripled their share of the vote in the last state election.
In the previous state election in 2017, the party received 6.4 percent of the vote.
It is interesting who gave the green party the votes in this election: around 160,000 citizens who voted for the CDU in 2017 decided in favor of the Greens in 2022, according to a voter migration analysis by the research group Elections 2022.
330,000 votes migrated from the SPD.
240,000 people who did not vote five years ago voted green in 2022.
Another 280,000 votes came from other parties, as determined by the research group elections.
"What a result, what a leap of faith for us Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia," said the Greens' top candidate Mona Neubaur in an interview with TV station Phoenix on Sunday.
"Our election goal was for North Rhine-Westphalia to have a formative government participation with the Greens and not without them - we succeeded, together with the historically best election result, for which I would like to thank the people in NRW." The good result of the Greens seems - at least as far as the voter structure is concerned - to have a future.
Because especially the young voters opted for green politics: Among the under 30-year-olds, the Greens (25 percent) were ahead of the SPD (21 percent) and the CDU (18 percent).
However, according to initial data, voter turnout in NRW was probably historically low:
Reasons for the record result of the Greens in NRW: Expertise and increased reputation
According to the Wahlen research group, the voters attributed the Greens to expertise when it came to education and schools - the SPD and CDU were also convincing here, by the way.
The institute came to this conclusion in a survey commissioned by ZDF in the pre-election week and at the polling stations on Sunday.
When it comes to energy policy and the issue of transport, which is also very important in NRW, the Greens led well ahead of all other parties.
The elections research group also examined the reputation of the parties in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The Greens were the only ones who made a significant gain here.
Her reputation increased from 0.0 in 2017 to 0.9.
The CDU was higher (1.4; 2017: 1.3), but lost slightly compared to 2017, as did the SPD (1.2; 2017: 1.3).
Greens in NRW: "Great trust in our work in the federal government, which also radiates to the federal states"
In addition, the election researchers recognized a significantly increased appreciation of the Green federal party.
The party was also able to achieve free-rider effects thanks to the good performance of the Green federal ministers.
According to a recent Insa survey, the three most popular federal politicians come from the ranks of the Greens.
"There is a great deal of trust in our work in the federal government, which also radiates to the federal states," said the green federal manager Emily Büning on Sunday.
Economics Minister Robert Habeck apparently played an important role here.
With a value of 2.4 in the federal government, he was a stronger protagonist than Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the SPD (1.7).
The top candidate Neubaur also referred to Habeck on the evening of the election and promised to implement the ideas of the Federal Minister of Economics in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Habeck had also supported Neubaur during the election campaign, for example at the final rally of the Greens in Cologne.
According to the survey, Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also did well from the voters' point of view after Russia's attack on Ukraine.
In times of crisis, the Greens were able to show that they were capable of acting.
Green top candidate Mona Neubaur with Economics Minister Robert Habeck at the closing rally of the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen party's election campaign for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election campaign (archive photo - Cologne, May 13, 2022).
© Panama Pictures/Christoph Hardt/Imago
North Rhine-Westphalia: voters want a red-green coalition
Although CDU Prime Minister Hendrick Wüst is the clear winner of the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, his governing coalition has been voted out.
According to an analysis by the Wahlen research group, voters are sympathetic to a red-green coalition.
According to this, 37 percent of those surveyed are enthusiastic about black and green, but 43 percent* are enthusiastic about red and green.
A red-green government in NRW would certainly be more welcome for the working atmosphere of the traffic light coalition in the federal government.
But there will probably not be a majority for them.
Shortly after the election on Sunday, however, Neubaur did not want to commit to a specific coalition preference.
With their strong election result, the Greens would now “talk to the democratic parties about our green content”.
During the election campaign, however, she indicated that she would prefer a two-party coalition.
It is already certain that the Green Party will probably decide who governs in NRW.
This makes Neubaur a "kingmaker"
(dpa/bm
).
*Survey by the research group Wahlen on behalf of ZDF: The figures are based on a telephone survey by the research group Wahlen among 1,361 randomly selected voters in NRW in the week before the election and on the survey of 16,967 voters on Sunday.
