State elections in NRW: the first forecasts and projections are in - the CDU is clearly ahead
Created: 05/16/2022Updated: 05/16/2022 04:26
By: Kim Hornickel, Max Schäfer, Alina Schröder
According to the first results, the CDU is ahead in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The current forecasts and projections in the live ticker.
Outcome completely open
:
North Rhine-Westphalia decides on a new state parliament.
The CDU and SPD fought a close race in polls
:
the CDU is now the strongest force in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The first forecasts and projections for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are available.
+++ 11.33 p.m .:
The ARD publishes new results of the projections for the state elections in NRW.
In the late hours of election Sunday, however, there are no more major changes to report.
The CDU is still ahead by a clear margin, followed by the SPD, which is more than eight percent behind the Union.
The Greens climb back over the 18 percent mark.
The current results at a glance:
CDU | 35.8 percent |
SPD | 26.6 percent |
Green | 18.1 percent |
FDP | 5.8 percent |
AfD | 5.5 percent |
left | 2.1 percent |
Other | 6.1 percent |
Source: Infratest dimap |
State elections in NRW: New projections published
+++ 10.45 p.m .:
New projections were published.
According to ARD, the SPD loses minimally, the Greens and FDP, on the other hand, gain something.
The current results at a glance:
CDU | 35.8 percent |
SPD | 26.6 percent |
Green | 18.1 percent |
FDP | 5.8 percent |
AfD | 5.5 percent |
left | 2.1 percent |
Other | 6.1 percent |
Source: Infratest dimap |
The incumbent Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and the CDU triumph in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.
© Boris Roessler/dpa
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: The Greens recorded the greatest gains
+++ 9.40 p.m .:
Every projection tonight indicates that the CDU is the strongest force in the elections in NRW.
Both ARD and ZDF see the Union of Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst clearly ahead of the SPD.
The Greens made the biggest gains in the state elections, while the FDP made the biggest losses.
These are the current projections of the ARD:
CDU | 35.8 percent |
SPD | 26.7 percent |
Green | 18.0 percent |
FDP | 5.6 percent |
AfD | 5.6 percent |
left | 2.1 percent |
Other | 6.2 percent |
Source: Infratest dimap |
+++ 8:21 p.m .:
Further projections for the state elections in NRW were announced by ZDF.
According to these, the CDU can continue to maintain its strong lead.
The SPD is more than eight percentage points behind her.
The biggest loser is still the FDP.
ZDF lists the current percentages of the individual parties as follows:
CDU | 35.5 percent |
SPD | 26.9 percent |
Green | 18.2 percent |
FDP | 5.6 percent |
AfD | 5.7 percent |
left | 2.1 percent |
Other | 6.0 percent |
Source: Research Gr. Choose |
State elections in NRW: CDU strongest force in North Rhine-Westphalia
+++ 7.25 p.m .:
According to current projections by ARD, the CDU was able to increase again in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The following figures were published:
CDU | 35.9 percent |
SPD | 27.1 percent |
FDP | 5.3 percent |
AfD | 5.6 percent |
Green | 18.1 percent |
Other | 8.0 percent (including leftists with 2 percent) |
Source: Infratest dimap |
According to current figures, the CDU has 78 seats in the state parliament, followed by the SPD with 59, the Greens with 39 and the FDP with 11. The AfD has 12 seats.
Possible coalitions in NRW are black-green or a traffic light without CDU participation with SPD, FDP and Greens.
Under certain circumstances, it could also just be enough for red-green.
+++ 18:53:
In the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the CDU became by far the strongest force on Sunday.
According to the first forecasts and projections by ARD and ZDF around 6.30 p.m., the previous governing party was well ahead of the opposition SPD.
However, the previous CDU/FDP coalition no longer has a majority.
According to the figures, the FDP and AfD have to worry about re-entering the state parliament in Düsseldorf.
As in the past five years, the left will not be represented there.
The Greens, on the other hand, have increased significantly in percentage terms.
According to the results of initial forecasts and extrapolations, the CDU is well ahead of the SPD in the North Rhine-Westphalia state elections.
© Friso Gentsch/dpa
State elections in NRW: These are the first forecasts and projections
+++ 6.15 p.m .:
In addition, ZDF has already published the first forecasts.
According to these, too, the CDU is clearly ahead of the SPD:
CDU | 35 percent |
SPD | 28 percent |
Green | 18 percent |
FDP | 5.5 percent |
AfD | 5.5 percent |
left | 2 percent |
Other | 6 percent |
Source: Research Gr. Choose |
+++ 6:06
p.m .:
The polling stations have been closed since 6 p.m.
According to the ARD, the first forecasts for the state elections in NRW 2022 are as follows:
CDU | 35 percent |
SPD | 27.5 percent |
Green | 18.5 percent |
FDP | 5 percent |
AfD | 6 percent |
left | 2.1 percent |
Other | 5.9 percent |
Source: Infratest dimap |
The previous results and projections are based on the surveys in the polling stations.
On the day of the state election, voters were asked about their vote as they left the polling station.
+++ 6 p.m.:
The polling stations for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are closed.
The first forecasts and projections will follow shortly.
+++ 5.45 p.m .:
The polling stations for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia close at 6 p.m.
Voters have 15 minutes to cast their votes.
The first forecasts and projections are then expected.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: Sunday starts with a high turnout
+++ 4 p.m .:
The North Rhine-Westphalia state elections began on Sunday (May 15) with a high turnout.
According to state returning officer Wolfgang Schellen, almost 36 percent of those entitled to vote had already taken part in the election by 12 noon.
Schellen announced this at noon on the basis of random samples in eight districts and urban districts.
For comparison: In the 2017 state elections, it was around 34 percent at the same time.
The polling stations are open until 6 p.m.
The first forecast of the outcome of the election is expected shortly thereafter.
North Rhine-Westphalia state election: the polling stations close at 6 p.m.
Then the votes are counted.
© Roberto Pfeil/dpa
+++ 12.15 p.m
.: In several surveys, the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia recently showed a close race between the CDU and SPD.
With around 30 to 32 percent, the CDU was just ahead of the SPD with 28 to 29 percent.
In most surveys, the CDU has a lead of two to three percentage points over the SPD - a statement on the ranking of the two parties is not possible because of the statistical error rate.
In addition, according to polls, many voters were still undecided about whom to vote for.
+++ 11.00 a.m .:
In Berlin, too, politicians are looking to the West.
The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are considered the most important indicator of the state elections in 2022 for the federal parties and the ruling traffic light coalition under SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Because of the high number of eligible voters, it is also known as the "small federal election".
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: the outcome is completely open
Update from Sunday, May 15, 8:00 a.m.:
North Rhine-Westphalia is facing an exciting state election with a completely open outcome: On Sunday, around 13 million eligible voters in the most populous federal state are called to vote.
Until recently, the CDU with Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (46) and the SPD with challenger Thomas Kutschaty (53) were neck and neck in polls.
The polling stations in North Rhine-Westphalia are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
NRW election 2022: Vote!
State elections in NRW: massive disturbances in Lindner's speech
+++ 9.43 p.m .:
During a speech by the Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, there were massive disruptions in Düsseldorf.
Among other things, the FDP federal leader was called "warmonger" and "liar" while he was trying to mobilize the last votes for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia for the NRW election campaign finale.
"If you think you can upset me, you're wrong," said Lindner.
Addressing the small group of disruptors, the politician shouted to thunderous applause from the audience: "The brave Ukrainians even defend the freedom of those who trample on them."
The FDP is currently forming a coalition with the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Recent surveys see the FDP mostly at seven to eight percent, for a new edition of a black and yellow government in NRW it would not be enough.
In the 2017 state election, the FDP won 12.6 percent.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: Lang and Merz express themselves
+++ 4 p.m .:
Before tomorrow’s state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Green Co-Chairman Ricarda Lang is confident: “You can tell that many people are in a mood to change.
We are optimistic about tomorrow," she said on Saturday on WDR.
"For me it is important that there can be no coalition without the Greens," Lang continued.
CDU federal chairman Friedrich Merz also commented on the upcoming NRW elections.
"I am very, very confident that we will win this state election, in the sense that we will remain the strongest parliamentary group in the North Rhine-Westphalian state parliament and will also be given the task of forming the state government," Merz told WDR.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: close race in the polls
Update from Saturday, May 14, 12:00 p.m .:
One day before the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the parties will again campaign for every vote on Saturday (May 14).
After the CDU, SPD and Greens held their central final rallies on Friday, prominent national and state figures will come to Düsseldorf for the final on Saturday (from 5 p.m.) for the FDP.
In the state capital of North Rhine-Westphalia, Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner and Deputy Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia and top candidate Joachim Stamp are campaigning for votes.
The CDU and SPD are fighting a close race in the polls - with a slight lead for the Christian Democrats.
CDU Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and his SPD challenger Thomas Kutschaty are campaigning in the streets on Saturday.
Kuschaty is campaigning for votes in Essen, Düsseldorf and Gelsenkirchen.
CDU top candidate Wüst travels to the doorstep election campaign in Lübbecke in East Westphalia, as well as to Bad Salzuflen, Wiedenbrück and Lippstadt.
Update from Friday, May 13, 8:15 p.m .:
Shortly before the election in North Rhine-Westphalia, the current poll values for the CDU are also consistently high.
According to the opinion research institute INSA, more than 30 percent of voters will vote for the CDU in the state elections on Sunday (May 15).
This would give the Christian Democrats 70 seats in the NRW state parliament and would overtake the SPD, which has an estimated 61 seats.
However, according to the institute, it is not a question of whether this would happen with the first or second vote.
Despite all the euphoria, the institute curbs hasty cheers from the Christian Democrats: Opinion research institutes themselves repeatedly emphasize that the actual election result can only be predicted to a limited extent.
Infratest dimap explains to rp-online: "Not only are more and more voters committing themselves to an election at short notice, the importance of the final campaign phase has also increased with the targeted addressing of undecided voters." The result of the 2017 election could therefore be repeated, back then the CDU became the strongest force in the state parliament with 33 percent of the votes.
Election in NRW: CDU and SPD deliver a tight race
First report from Friday, May 13:
Düsseldorf – After the state election is before the state election: On May 15, 2022, the people of North Rhine-Westphalia will elect a new state parliament.
A week earlier, the CDU had won a clear victory in Schleswig-Holstein.
Nevertheless, SPD party leader Lars Klingbeil is confident of victory.
"I'm also quite sure that Thomas Kutschaty will ultimately become the next prime minister in North Rhine-Westphalia," said Klingbeil on Monday (May 9, 2022).
He attributed the defeat in Schleswig-Holstein to a state-specific constellation.
You can read the results of the North Rhine-Westphalia state election in the live ticker.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: when will forecasts and projections come out?
The polls before the NRW elections confirm Klingbeil's optimism.
According to a ZDF survey from May 6, 2022 shortly before the election, the SPD is only two percentage points behind the CDU (30 percent) with 28 percent.
Due to the strong performance of the Greens (18 percent), a red-green coalition is currently also possible.
Mathematically, this is more likely than an alliance between the Union and the Greens.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia | |
election day | May 15, 2022 |
Opening hours of the polling stations | 8 a.m. to 6 p.m |
First prognosis | 6 p.m |
extrapolations | from about 6.30 p.m |
After the election victory in Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU, just leading in the polls, sees momentum ahead of the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.
“The CDU people’s party is fully there.
And people also appreciate good government work that ensures more security, a modern economy and secure jobs," said North Rhine-Westphalia's acting Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst (CDU) on Monday (May 9, 2022).
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: How meaningful are the forecasts and projections?
The parties and their top candidates have until 6 p.m. on the Sunday of the election at the latest to convince the voters.
At this time, the polling stations close and all ballot papers, whether filled out in the conventional way at the polling station or in advance by postal vote, must be handed in.
Hendrik Wüst (r), top candidate of the CDU North Rhine-Westphalia and Daniel Günther, Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein (CDU) at a joint election campaign date.
© Bernd Thissen/dpa
From 6 p.m. the first forecasts and projections for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia will also be published.
The forecasts are based on so-called exit polls, i.e. anonymous surveys in front of representative polling stations.
The results of the extrapolations, on the other hand, include the first counted constituencies, which are extrapolated to the whole of North Rhine-Westphalia.
As the evening progresses, they become more and more meaningful and come closer and closer to the actual results.
State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: third election in 2022
The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia can be followed on TV and in the live stream.
It is already the third of four state elections in 2022. Before that, the SPD was able to win an absolute majority in the Saarland election.
The CDU, on the other hand, recorded a clear victory in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein.
The Lower Saxony elections will follow on October 9th.
(kh/ms with dpa)
