Analysis of the NRW election: Suddenly the Greens become the alternative for Germany

Created: 05/17/2022, 16:31

By: Fabian Hartmann

A bitter evening for the SPD and FDP, the Greens cheer: only one traffic light party was able to gain ground in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.

The analysis of the choice.

Cologne – Not long ago, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) dreamed of a “social democratic decade”.

That was after the federal elections in 2021, the SPD regained the chancellorship after 16 years.

The triumph in Berlin should also rub off on the federal states.

Only half a year later you have to say: This dream has burst.

First the defeat in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and then also in North Rhine-Westphalia: the SPD suffered two major setbacks within seven days.

Ironically, in the "heart chamber of social democracy" - between the Rhine and Ruhr - the party fell below 30 percent.

It's a historically bad result.

A major tabloid is already talking about the "Chancellor gossip".

State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: What happens in the West has an impact on Berlin – always

NRW election: It was a bitter evening for the SPD, but the Greens were able to celebrate.

(IDZRW assembly) © Friso Gentsch/dpa & Fabian Sommer/dpa

There is no question: NRW, with its approximately 13 million voters, is too important to downplay the election as a regional event.

It is not for nothing that it is referred to as the "small federal election".

What happens in NRW has an impact on Berlin - always.

In 2005, ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) decided to hold new elections after the defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia.

It was the end of his chancellorship.

Sunday's defeat is not only to be attributed to SPD state leader Thomas Kutschaty.

It is also due to Olaf Scholz.

The Chancellor was present in the election campaign, he campaigned for Kuchaty, his face could be seen on many posters: "Together for NRW and Germany", it said.

In addition, a picture of Scholz and Kuchaty.

Scholz was in Cologne on Friday.

It was of no use.

The chancellor bonus?

Was not present in this election.

So didn't Kuchaty lose despite Scholz - but because of Scholz?

At least there are indications of that.

NRW election: The chancellor did not pull – unlike his vice

Infratest dimap reported on the evening of the election that only 35 percent of voters in North Rhine-Westphalia found that the chancellor had been supportive of the state SPD.

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) came to 57 percent.

Federal politics has played a major role in NRW.

Inflation, the war in Ukraine, the climate - these were the issues that moved people.

And the SPD often did not look good.

During the Ukraine crisis, the party took a long time to bring itself to deliver arms to Kyiv.

Added to this is the questionable proximity of some SPD politicians to Russia.

The chancellor once said that anyone who orders leadership will get it from him.

But his communication is often unclear, Scholz knows how to say little with many words.

Even party friends and coalition members don't always know what the chancellor wants.

His demeanor seems hesitant and vague.

Of course: The traffic light in Berlin has only lasted for half a year.

Hardly any other coalition was confronted with such major geopolitical challenges from the start.

It would be too early to declare a coalition crisis or even chancellor twilight.

State elections in NRW: instability is rarely appreciated

But the SPD should be warned.

The party must find an answer to the question of whether it can afford a stray defense minister at a time when war is raging again in Europe.

The SPD also wobbled alarmingly when it came to compulsory vaccination – a project that Scholz has made his own.

Instability is rarely appreciated by voters.

It is striking that the traffic light partners SPD and FDP have already been penalized in two state elections.

The Greens, on the other hand, triumphed.

In NRW, the party led by top candidate Mona Neubaur won 18.2 percent, almost tripling the result of 2017.

But the same applies here: the upswing has primarily to do with federal politics.

Many voters in NRW didn't know who Mona Neubaur was until the end.

The Greens benefited from the good performance of their Federal Ministers Habeck and Annalena Baerbock.

There is no way around the eco-party in NRW either.

The signs are black and green.

NRW election: Is the balance of power shifting in the traffic light?

The static in the traffic light could shift due to the state elections.

For the liberals, the alliance was never a love marriage anyway.

They had to go the longest way with the change of bearings.

Now the party is starving.

The memory of the last government participation at the federal level is too present, when the party was kicked out of parliament.

The FDP wants to avoid this fate again at all costs.

But for that she needs success – in case of doubt also against the SPD and the Greens.

So are tensions rising in the Berlin coalition?

At least the euphoria of the early days is no longer noticeable at the traffic light.

Most recently there was a mini scandal in the Defense Committee when some FDP politicians left the room because Chancellor Scholz did not answer their questions.

However, the conflict was quickly resolved.

The CDU and its party leader Friedrich Merz could be happy about that.

After the defeat in the federal elections, the Union is in the process of consolidating.

The victories in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia have also strengthened the position of CDU leader Merz.

But: In the north, Daniel Günther is a declared opponent of Merz.

And in North Rhine-Westphalia, Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst was progressive.

The conflict of direction in the Union between liberal and conservative forces has not yet been decided.

He's just adjourned.

NRW election: AfD and left also lose in the west

Another look at AfD and Linke: The election night was unsatisfactory for both parties.

The AfD has also lost in the West, it just got over the 5 percent hurdle.

In Schleswig-Holstein she had missed the re-entry into the state parliament a week earlier.

The growing radicalization of the party appears to be putting off voters.

Especially since she was also targeted by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

And the left?

Just got two percent.

It is increasingly in the process of shrinking back to its roots: as an East German regional party that has no chance in the West.