Between Sweden and Russia: Erdogan's dangerous game

The Turkish president has expressed opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO to reconcile Russia, and has sent weapons to Ukraine to reconcile the West.

Tali Goldstein

17/05/2022

Tuesday, 17 May 2022, 12:04 Updated: 12:53

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Finland and Sweden said yesterday (Monday) that Europe is now living in a new and dangerous reality, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the two Nordic countries' future accession to NATO does not directly threaten Moscow, but stressed that any expansion of the alliance accompanied by military infrastructure along Russia's borders would ignite an appropriate response from the Kremlin. Constantly resentful

, stir in the cauldron as well.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced yesterday to Finland and Sweden that "they will not bother to send representatives to persuade Turkey, an important NATO member, to support their desire to become members of the organization. Erdogan also demands that the two countries lift the restrictions on arms sales to Turkey and even mentions his veto right. Without the support of all 30 members of NATO, Finland and Sweden they will not be able to join.

The remarks have surprised some European leaders and highlight the way in which Turkey is taking advantage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to divert attention to its central role within NATO, and to bring about concessions within the restrictions imposed on it by Western countries.

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Philadelphia Prime Minister Sana Marin, Helsinki (Photo: AP)

Turkey hosted two rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and sold armed skimmers to the Ukrainian army.

According to experts, Erdogan is also trying to leverage his role in the crisis to pressure the United States to accelerate arms sales to Ankara, including a fleet of F-16 fighter jets, missiles and other equipment.

On the other hand, he is trying to preserve his relationship with Putin and the flow of Russian money to Turkey - and has not joined the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia.

Apparently, Erdogan's main goal in hardening his stance is to divert the spotlight back to him and expect persuasions, pleas and rewards in return for his cooperation, as has happened in the past.

In 2019, Erdogan agreed to support NATO's defense plans for Poland and the Baltic states, after the alliance responded to its request to define several organizations as terrorist organizations, including the Kurdish YPG.

In the video: Photo of the group photo of NATO foreign ministers (Photo: Reuters)

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Erdogan does not intend to use his veto right against Finland and Sweden, but mainly expresses his displeasure with the Biden administration's attitude towards Turkey.

Erdogan is disappointed, according to the council, with not being able to establish a closer relationship with US President Joe Biden, such as the relationship he had with former President Donald Trump.

Turkey is also preparing for the elections that are expected to take place on June 18, 2023, at a time when public support for the president who has been in office since 2002 is weakening, Erdogan wants to improve his image in the international arena to impress the Turkish people at home.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson (Photo: AP)

Another point that upsets Erdogan is the fact that Washington has lifted the sanctions that were imposed on areas in Syria under Syrian control, as well as areas under Turkish control, and allowed the Kurdish autonomous government to trade with the outside world.

Turkey sees these Kurds as a branch of the PKK, which is defined as a terrorist organization in several countries (the Kurdistan Workers' Party is a Kurdish separatist organization active mainly in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey. The organization was established in the 1970s to establish an independent Kurdish state in southeastern Turkey). - and a threat to its southern border.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Erdogan during statements to the media after their meeting in Sochi on October 22, 2019 (Photo: Reuters)

Turkey also feels that NATO is not interested in warming relations with it, despite its loyalty, and that the alliance ignores Turkey's security concerns

. In addition, Turkey occasionally confronts Greece and France over maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean and flights over the Aegean Sea.

It is estimated that the conflict has now become a Russia-NATO war and that the chances of escalation are growing.

They are also disappointed by the West's refusal to support Turkey's mediation efforts.

High-ranking officials in Turkey have accused NATO members of not wanting to end the war in Ukraine in order to harm Russia.

Flag of Ukraine through the window of an apartment destroyed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the town of Borodyanka 14.05.22 (Photo: Reuters, Reuters)

Turkey is one of the oldest members of NATO. During World War II, it maintained neutrality. However, when the war ended, Turkey joined Western democracies in opposition to Soviet expansion. In 1950, Turkey sent troops to support the defense of South Korea after June 25. In 1950, North Korea's military forces crossed the border and invaded its southern neighbor. In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.

In the past, Turkey has supported NATO enlargement and the accession of countries such as Poland, Hungary, Albania and northern Macedonia. It has also developed relations with fringe countries, such as Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan. But today, the European strategic map is changing faster than ever. Because she is isolated.

According to estimates, Erdogan will not veto the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, and the West for its part will agree to certain concessions on issues that are important to Turkey.

But all the concessions and compromises are unlikely to allay concerns in Ankara about escalation in Europe and about the possibility of finding itself in the line of fire.

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• Recep Tayyip Erdogan