Colombia heading to the presidential elections, what does the Great Survey say?
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(CNN Spanish) --
Gustavo Petro leads, with a wide advantage, the preferences for the Colombian presidential elections to be held on Sunday, May 29, according to recent polls.
The Great Survey of May, carried out by the firm Yanhaas on behalf of RCN Radio, RCN Television and the newspaper La República, assigns a 40% voting intention to Petro, the left-wing candidate who is running with Francia Márquez as his running mate .
Petro, candidate of the Historical Pact, is also in first place in the weighting of polls made by the local media La Silla Vacía, which gathers various queries and makes an average taking into account the assessment of each pollster, as explained here .
In the most recent update, Petro has 38% of the support for the elections.
Colombia elects president: why is it important for Latin America?
In second place in the Yanhaas query, which has a margin of error of 3.2%, is the right-wing candidate 'Fico' Gutiérrez, former mayor of Medellín, with 21%.
The survey was conducted between April 30 and May 7, and showed that 13% would vote blank, then placing the candidates Rodolfo Hernández with 12% and Sergio Fajardo with 7% support.
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In the La Silla Vacía weighting, meanwhile, Gutiérrez also occupies second place with 24% support.
Hernández is in third place with 12% and the blank vote is fourth in line with 10%.
Fajardo's support, meanwhile, is at 7%, the same percentage as Yanhaas' most recent query.
Petro, leader in the polls in Colombia for months
Petro's solid position as favorite is not new: La Silla's weighting shows that since February he has been leading the preferences of Colombians, and in particular since the inter-party consultations in March, although his support has increased compared to the figures for that month. .
Gutierrez, meanwhile, has risen sharply since February, when he trailed Hernandez and Fajardo in the polls.
In addition to the aforementioned candidates, four other formulas with less support so far will participate in the election.
How a possible second round is shaping up
If in the first round none of the candidates obtains a simple majority (half plus one) of the valid votes, as the polls suggest, a second round will be held on June 19 with the two candidates with the most votes.
The current photo indicates that Petro and Gutiérrez would face each other in those elections.
This is the third attempt at the presidency by Petro, who defines himself as a "progressive" leftist leader in a highly traditional and right-wing country.
He carries on his shoulders the burden of having been a member of a guerrilla group that led to one of the worst tragedies in the country's history, the seizure of the Palace of Justice (despite not having participated directly), but at the same time of being one of the the most important political leaders in the recent history of the Latin American nation.
"Fico" Gutiérrez, meanwhile, positioned himself as the right-wing candidate after a victory among five pre-candidates from the Team for Colombia coalition.
The former mayor of Medellín, who is the youngest candidate in these elections, has presented himself as the nemesis of Gustavo Petro.
Gutiérrez obtained the support of the traditional Conservative and Liberal parties, as well as the Partido de la U and implicitly from the Democratic Center, the current government party: the pre-candidate of that group, Óscar Iván Zuluaga, resigned in March and decided to support Gutierrez.
Gutiérrez's speech has focused on "preserving democracy and freedoms", as well as security, and has criticized Petro for considering that he has a "populist and authoritarian project".
The winner of the elections – for which almost 39 million citizens are called – will be the successor of Iván Duque and will take office on August 7, 2022.
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