The "temperature difference" impacted by the epidemic in China: starting from an economic forum

At a time when China's economy continues to be turbulent due to the impact of the epidemic, the Chief Economist Forum hosted by the PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University was supposed to be a forum to clear the fog, focus on current key issues, and stabilize people's hearts. very different response.

To sum up, the PBC Economic Forum has several "topics" that have attracted widespread public attention:

The first is the "pop-up window" by Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and a doctoral supervisor, and the "Pop-up window" by Li Taokui, the Friedman Chair of Economics at Tsinghua University and a professor at the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University. Settlement".

At the end of the first roundtable discussion,

said frankly, "I have been doing nucleic acid for more than ten days in a row, and now there is a pop-up window, I have to go out and negotiate with them. We still have many questions in this regard, and I am sorry to use this as the conclusion. ."

Regarding

's "pop-up window", Li Daokui responded in his final speech, "After deeply understanding the leadership's instructions, I found that there is a kind of system thinking. That is, the goals in all aspects must be balanced, and we can't just focus on one thing. , the central leadership has repeatedly talked about systematic thinking, so I think people-centered, life first, we must also think systematically on this issue, not only to do a good job in the defense of the current epidemic spread, but also to stabilize our economy. The point of view is very simple, I will calculate the account for everyone, how to do it specifically, why our teacher Yongding pops up, I can't do anything, I can only express my sympathy."

The reason why Li Daokui, who "calculated the big account" and

Yu

solving the "pop-up window" problem mentioned by

At present, the government must not dispel or ignore these "specific accounts" while "calculating big accounts", because the accumulation of each specific account is ultimately the most real "big account" and "long-term account".

Followed by Li Daokui's theory of "producing while quarantined", and his remarks that "the past two years of fighting the epidemic is equivalent to adding 10 days to the life expectancy of each Chinese".

Li Taokui, the Friedman Chair of Economics at Tsinghua University and a professor at the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University, made a speech at the 2022 PBC Economic Forum, which attracted public attention.

(Xinhua News Agency)

In the keynote speech, Li Daokui focused on answering two questions: Why is China's "dynamic reset" necessary?

How to protect the economy, production line, and supply chain?

For the first question, Li Daokui calculated a "life account" - "For the time being, multiply the number of deaths from the new crown epidemic in the US data by four, and the population is four times. If our work is not done well, the past two There will be 4 million lives lost every year...Each lost life saved is equivalent to 1.4 billion people adding 10 days to their life expectancy. The great victories in the past two years have extended the average life expectancy of every common person by 10 days. For the second question, Li Daokui said, “The industrial chain must be preserved, how to preserve it? There are local methods, can front-line workers temporarily gather to build prefabricated houses, and do not isolate at home? Isolate next to the factory and isolate while producing.” “In order to ensure the consumption of residents, the logistics must be smooth, and more importantly, direct cash subsidies should be given to the affected people.”

Although Li Daokui's remarks are unavoidably taken out of context after being simplified, but judging from the public opinion response that has caused a lot of scolding, on the one hand, after more than two years of continuous anti-epidemic consumption, the Chinese society is still unable to get out of the anti-epidemic predicament. It is full of anxiety and dissatisfaction, so no matter how the life account is calculated, the current predicament is real. The continued downturn in expectations and confidence is becoming the last straw that overwhelms people. Whether they can live another ten days in the future can be put in today’s situation. It is like a fantasy; on the other hand, Li Daokui's remarks on "production while isolating" touches on the sensitive point of today's Chinese society, that is, people's strong appeal for fairness and justice, especially in the name of public power to prevent epidemics. Against the background of public anger caused by unlimited expansion, this remark will inevitably lead to fierce backlash and dissatisfaction.

In addition to the abuse, criticism and "temperature difference" in the public opinion field, Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip Group and a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, "discussed with Li Daokui" quickly resonated with people and received a lot of retweets.

Liang Jianzhang first affirmed Li Daokui's idea of ​​​​estimating, because "finally some economists quantified the impact of epidemic prevention policies on the economy and mortality into the impact on life expectancy", but Liang Jianzhang did not agree with Li Daokui's algorithm , because the virus is constantly mutating, "the policy of strictly guarding against Omicron is adopted, and the average life expectancy brought by it is no longer 10 days, but may only be 1 day. Moreover, epidemic prevention and control will also crowd out the medical resources for other diseases. , it is necessary to transfer a large number of personnel to carry out flow adjustment, and engage in work such as code scanning, temperature monitoring, nucleic acid detection, etc. A large number of medical resources are invested in epidemic prevention and control, which will reduce the investment of medical resources for other diseases and increase the mortality rate of other diseases.”

After comparing the mortality rate and the actual situation of various countries, Liang Jianzhang finally came to the conclusion, "The total loss of life expectancy caused by the policy of excessively strict prevention is: the benefit of avoiding death is 1 day, minus the loss of 5 days of life expectancy caused by economic decline, The answer is equal to negative 4 days. According to the above calculation, the average life expectancy will be lost by 4 days each month. It can be said that the average life expectancy that has been successfully saved in the past two years increases by 10 days of surplus, and the months of lockdown will all be lost. returned."

The third is Lin Yifu, professor and dean of Peking University's Institute of New Structural Economics, who is optimistic about China's economy, and Huang Yiping, chair professor and vice dean of Peking University's National School of Economics, "Save the economy at all costs."

In the keynote speech session, Justin Yifu Lin continued the previous method of judging China's economy, and put forward two suggestions for China's economy - maintaining a dynamic economic development growth rate, maintaining an open attitude, and maintaining optimistic expectations for China.

According to Justin Yifu Lin, “China is now 50% of the United States, but the world will change. I found that the world will have a new way to change its appearance. China’s per capita GDP accounts for 50% of the United States’, and China’s population is actually It is 4 times that. If China is such a big economy, it will one day be twice the total economy of the United States. When that day comes, the United States will have to make a balance and make a choice. It must do trade with China, and must China maintains good relations. In particular, only by dealing with China can they maintain their employment rate, ensure that their country benefits, and maintain normal economic relations. The new global order established in this way is a new order of stability and peace.”

Justin Yifu Lin, professor and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, is optimistic about China's economy.

(Xinhua News Agency)

Unlike Lin Yifu's optimistic expectations, Huang Yiping, who was the first to speak at the last discussion of the Economic Forum, pointed out that "the economic situation has come to a time when a policy at all costs should be adopted" because "the economic situation is not good and very difficult."

Specifically, the anti-epidemic has entered its third year, "The objective problem is that many companies and households have become a very big problem in their liquidity when the anti-epidemic is in the third year. If this liquidity breaks, even if their assets and liabilities are broken, It will be difficult to survive without problems, so at this time we maintain the current anti-epidemic policy, I think we may need to take some more direct measures to support these institutions and the lives of the common people.”

The reason why the speeches of Justin Yifu Lin and Huang Yiping attracted the attention of the public opinion field is because of a different "temperature difference" reaction.

Justin Yifu Lin's optimistic expectations are similar to the recent official news. For example, on May 16, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic data for April. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size fell by 2.9% year-on-year, the service industry production index fell by 6.1%, and social consumer goods. The total retail sales fell by 11.1%...but at the same time stressed that the two remained unchanged, "The epidemic in April had a big impact on the economic operation, but this impact was short-term and external. my country's economy is stable and improving in the long run. The fundamentals have not changed, and the general trend of transformation, upgrading, and high-quality development has not changed.” On May 13, the People’s Bank of China announced April financial data and social financing statistics. The data showed that RMB loans increased by 645.4 billion yuan in April, which is only equivalent to 20% in March, an increase of 823.1 billion yuan less than the previous year; the increase in social financing scale was 910.2 billion yuan, 946.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

But even so, the relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China still said, "my country's development has many strategic favorable conditions, the economy is large, there is wide room for maneuver, it has strong resilience and a super-large market, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement will not change."

On May 18, People's Daily discussed the three dimensions of stable growth, stable employment, and stable prices, and finally came to the conclusion, "As various policies advance and policy effects are gradually released, the normal economic order will be There will be a quick recovery, and the economy will soon return to its normal track.”

But in the field of public opinion, it is obviously easier to resonate with Huang Yiping's "economic situation is not good and it is very difficult."

After all, no matter it is the latest economic data or the feeling of the whole society, the economic situation in China is indeed not optimistic. Can’t afford a mortgage to buy a house with their life savings. More and more people are considering going abroad because they can’t stand and bear China’s epidemic prevention. Acceptability basically depends on economic development. Once this foundation begins to shake, China is bound to face greater internal challenges.

From "preventing the epidemic at all costs" to "saving the economy at all costs", the issue of balancing epidemic prevention and control with the economy and people's livelihood is still severe and not optimistic.

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