The intention of Sweden and Finland to join NATO in the face of Russian stalking has run into an unexpected stumbling block in Turkey.
The meeting that the Alliance held this Wednesday at the level of ambassadors, minutes after receiving the request from the two candidates to start negotiations, has seen its intention frustrated by Ankara's veto.
Despite the fact that the other 29 allies support the entry of the two Nordic countries, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had already shown misgivings about him.
The slowdown at the first step of the accession process confirms that Turkey is serious and hopes to extract concessions.
Ankara's yes is essential, since the unanimity of all member countries is necessary.
Erdogan has described both candidates as terrorist "incubators" for their support of organizations such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
"They're coming to convince us, but I'm sorry, don't waste your time," he said Monday.
“It is not possible to say yes [to admission],” he added.
Despite these words, Turkey has shown in recent hours that the rejection of Stockholm and Helsinki is not definitive.
But nothing is free.
NATO, in fact, maintains its goal that both countries already feel like guests at the summit that the organization will hold in Madrid at the end of June.
"We are determined to work on all issues and reach a speedy conclusion," said a NATO official after concluding the frustrated meeting of ambassadors.
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Arms embargo and extradition of PKK members
The rest of the allies believe that Ankara's position is negotiable and that Erdogan is only seeking to extract concessions.
Among them, the possibility that Sweden and Finland lift the arms embargo decreed against Turkey in 2019 as punishment for Turkish attacks in Syria against militias linked to the PKK.
Ankara could also ask Stockholm to extradite members of the PKK.
Turkey could use the occasion to demand that the US reverse approved fighter jet supply cuts in retaliation for Ankara's decision to buy a Russian missile system.
Ankara believes that Finland and Sweden cover for members of this organization considered terrorist, not only in Turkey, but also in Europe and the United States.
"How can we trust them?" Erdogan wondered, while recalling that these "terrorists" are not only given a voice in their respective parliaments, but are also part of it.
"They already imposed sanctions on Turkey," he said, referring to Sweden's 2019 arms embargo on Turkey, when Erdogan carried out the military incursion into the Kurdish canton of Afrin in Syria.
Turkey's objections materialized shortly after the ambassadors of Finland and Sweden to NATO delivered the application for both countries to join the Alliance on Wednesday morning.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has described the application as "a historic step" and has promised to process it as soon as possible.
"This is a good day at a critical moment in our security," Stoltenberg said after receiving the documents at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Helsinki and Stockholm thus begin the countdown to the end of their historic neutrality.
And they aspire to lead, if possible this year, the ninth expansion of NATO since its foundation in 1949.
Ankara complains about the denial in the last five years by Sweden and Finland of Turkey's request to extradite 33 people accused of having links with the PKK or belonging to the movement of Fetullah Gülen, accused of instigating the failed coup State of 2016. "They will not return the terrorists to us, but they ask us to be members of NATO?" Erdogan wondered.
The demands do not end here.
Ankara is also seeking to take advantage of the situation to improve relations with the United States, with whom it has clashed over issues such as the Pentagon's political and military support for the Kurdish YPG militias in Syria, designated by Ankara as the Syrian wing of the PKK.
Erdogan's popularity down
“NATO enlargement is meaningful for us as long as it respects our sensitivities,” Erdogan told parliament.
Extraditions may be one of the cornerstones at a time when Erdogan is seeing his popularity decline.
The economic crisis that the country is going through is the greatest concern of citizens, with runaway inflation that the Government seems unable to control.
And, a year before the elections scheduled for 2023, a wave of extraditions or a diplomatic victory for the country would boost his electoral prospects.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavusoglu said from New York that he wants to smooth things over with Washington.
Another high point of Ankara's poor relations with the West also occurred within NATO, when Ankara bought the Russian-made S-400 missiles.
In retaliation, Turkey was kicked out of the US-led F-35 fighter jet project, an investment that had cost Ankara $1.4 billion.
Later, Turkey requested the purchase of 40 F-16 fighters and 80
kits
modernization for your fleet.
To achieve this, Ankara would need the approval of the US Congress.
Erdogan could seek guarantees that he will achieve these concessions.
In this context, the surrender of arms will play an important role in any negotiations that take place for Sweden and Finland to end up in NATO.
Turkey's efforts to host the Ukraine-Russia peace talks on its territory, the good relations between Ankara and Moscow and, now, Finland and Sweden's request to join NATO, place Turkey at the center of many of the tectonic movements in international politics that have occurred as a result of the war in Ukraine.
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