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Prime Minister Günther: New style
Photo: Frank Molter / dpa
Eleven days after the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, it is becoming apparent that the previous Jamaican government made up of CDU, FDP and Greens could actually continue.
That is astonishing, because three coalition partners are not needed at all.
Prime Minister Daniel Günther, the beaming winner of the election, narrowly missed out on an absolute majority.
He could either govern with the Greens, who are stronger than ever in the country.
Or with the FDP, even if they clearly lost.
Both have repeatedly emphasized their preference for a two-way alliance with Günther's Union.
But the prime minister doesn't want to know anything about it.
On Thursday, all three parties will be exploring together for the first time, and coalition negotiations could begin as early as next week.
Günther enthuses that Jamaica has shaped a “new style”.
You act »on an equal footing«, combine »economy and ecology«.
There are major challenges that require a broad alliance.
A coalition "with the slide rule" is a way of thinking from the past.
Clever or not?
From Günther's point of view, this is a clever approach.
Embracing, balancing, moderating – this is how he successfully led Jamaica for five years.
In the end, three quarters of the voters declared that they were satisfied with this state government.
And no prime minister was as popular with the people as the smart CDU man from the fjord.
So why give up a successful model?
From the audience's point of view, Jamaica 2 can't be the best option.
Democracy is not only compromise and consensus, but also dispute and competition.
A government with an overwhelming majority cuts off an opposition.
The CDU, FDP and Greens have 53 seats in the Kiel state parliament.
16 seats remain for the SPD and the minority party SSW.
It takes 18 votes just to summon a state government to parliament.
At least 17 MPs must apply for a committee of inquiry.
SPD and SSW would be an opposition by Jamaica's grace.
Whoever has a sufficient majority must be able to govern and want to govern.
Black-yellow or black-green would each be a directional decision, the success of which would be voted on at the latest in the next election.
An overwhelming majority harbors the danger of stagnation, because if there is a disagreement, one would always consider a partner without needing to.
Clear will: Günther should govern
The argument that Jamaica is the will of the voters is misleading.
The only thing that can be read from the result is the wish that Daniel Günther governs.
Mainly because of him, the CDU got 43.4 percent (plus 11.4 percentage points).
And while the Greens also made strong gains, the FDP's weak performance shows that there was no unanimous vote for Jamaica at the moment.
As much as Günther pretends noble motives, his calculus is probably shaped to a considerable extent by power tactics.
In a two-party alliance, especially with the FDP, he would have to fear for his image as a bridge builder.
An image that has also brought him to the top of the national political spectrum through his election victory.
And with which he could one day even cross the threshold of the chancellor's office.
Günther could camouflage the weaknesses of the CDU with the Jamaica trick.
Programmatically, the state party does not have much to offer.
In recent years, Günther has attracted particular attention with a thoroughly successful corona crisis management.
In the Union, some talk about the relief on election night when it was clear that there was no vote for the sole government.
Just not without a partner.
If Günther releases the FDP or the Greens into the opposition, disruptive fire is programmed.
The Greens could get closer to the SPD there, with which they governed the country until 2017.
The FDP, in turn, would probably alienate CDU supporters who thought black and green were too far to the left.
From Günther's point of view, all of this does not bode well for the next election.
In the next few days it should depend on how the Greens and the FDP decide.
Their grumbling about Jamaica 2 is unmistakable.
At the same time, a seat in the cabinet seems more tempting to both of them than the opposition, with fewer posts and less money.
That would speak for at least trying Jamaica 2.
When in doubt, you can always go to a foundation.