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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Photo: YVES HERMAN / REUTERS
Why is Turkey blocking the accession of Sweden and Finland?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accuses Finland and Sweden of supporting the Kurdish Workers' Party PKK, which Turkey is fighting, and the Kurdish militia YPG in Syria.
Sweden, for example, is refusing to extradite 30 "terrorists," sources in Ankara say.
Accession by the two countries is therefore a security risk.
What does Erdoğan really want?
The current assessment in Brussels is that Erdoğan does not want to prevent Sweden and Finland from joining in the long term – because the political price would be too high given the importance of the accession of the two northern countries to NATO.
It is more likely that Erdoğan wants to force concessions elsewhere with his blockade.
However, it is unclear exactly what these are.
"The list of potential requests is almost endless," complains a NATO employee.
It is possible, for example, that Erdoğan wants Sweden and Finland to take stricter action against the Kurds.
He could also seek to lift restrictions on arms shipments imposed by some NATO members, such as Germany, over Turkey's crackdown on the Kurds in Syria.
Other possible demands by Erdoğan could relate to his conflict with Cyprus over gas drilling in the eastern Mediterranean.
Concessions from the USA could also be on Erdoğan's wish list.
A few years ago, Ankara bought Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles and was sanctioned by the US as a result.
In a recent phone call with US President Joe Biden, Erdoğan called for the "unfair" sanctions to be lifted.
The Americans also kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program because of the S-400 deal.
The purchase of the new stealth jets is now a thing of the past for Erdoğan.
Instead, he now wants older F-16 fighter jets from the United States – but that too has been viewed with skepticism in the US Congress, which would have to approve the export.
Most recently, Turkish support for Ukraine had softened the American MPs again.
But whether blocking Sweden and Finland's NATO membership will bring Erdoğan closer to the F-16 deal remains to be seen.
It would also be conceivable that he would immediately gamble away the sympathy he had just gained in Washington.
Are Sweden's and Finland's accession blocked in the long term?
In extreme cases yes.
Paul Levin, head of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, sees the risk of a long deadlock, because the Kurdish question is "a politically and ideologically important issue" in both Sweden and Turkey.
Erdoğan sees terrorist organizations in the Kurdish associations, but according to Levin it would also be "difficult for the Swedes to give up the cause of the Kurds, which is close to the heart of many social democrats".
Can the other NATO states decide to admit Sweden and Finland without Turkey?
no
The NATO treaty states that the accession of new countries must be decided unanimously by all members.
Accession without Turkey's consent would therefore not be legally possible.
If the other states did it anyway - which is considered impossible - they would invalidate the treaty, which ultimately is also the basis for mutual assistance in the event of an attack from outside.
Can NATO throw Turkey out if necessary?
Such demands have been made before, in 2019, for example, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich questioned Turkey's NATO membership.
But expulsion is not possible.
NATO is similar to the EU in this respect: members can only leave if they wish.
There is no procedure for an exclusion in the NATO treaty.
In addition, despite the frustration that Erdoğan regularly causes, there is no wish for Turkey's exit at NATO headquarters.
Because it is enormously important for the alliance: It has the second largest army in NATO and plays a key role simply because of its geographical location.
Brussels emphasizes that this will still be the case if Erdoğan resigns one day.
If an agreement is reached, how soon could Finland and Sweden join?
Even then, the process would take months.
The accession protocols could be signed in June, the ratification by Member States would, however, last much longer, as in most countries - including Germany - would have to agree the respective Parliament.
According to estimates, this could take six to eight months.