Emergency due to "first" cases of covid-19 in North Korea 2:16
(CNN) --
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to be in big trouble.
His country has announced an "explosive" outbreak of covid-19, reporting more than 2 million cases of what he calls "fever" in just over a week since his first reported case.
In a country of 25 million people, largely underdeveloped and famously isolated, where the vast majority of its population is believed to be unvaccinated, the covid-19 outbreak has the potential to be a humanitarian disaster of the kind on a scale that would threaten the grip on power of almost any government in the world.
But Pyongyang's is not like any other government.
Indeed, some experts say that rather than weaken Kim, the outbreak could make him more powerful by giving him an excuse to tighten his grip on him.
Kim has at his disposal a vast propaganda machine and the ability to block outside information that could help him shape the narrative of this crisis in his favor, just as his predecessors did with the widely believed 1990s famine. that starved hundreds of thousands of North Koreans.
Back then, Pyongyang had framed its troubles as an "uphill march," blaming the floods in part and US sanctions in part.
Kim is already showing signs of trying to manage this latest crisis.
Even before the outbreak was announced, Kim had been warning his officials to prepare for "another, more difficult, Hard March."
That seemed to be a reference to the dire food shortages the country is once again facing and likely made worse by the very border closures Kim introduced to keep the virus out.
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Analysts are also suspicious of the timing of Pyongyang's acknowledgment of the covid outbreak.
His earlier insistence that he had been free of Covid-19 had been a source of widespread skepticism, with some suggesting that his sudden openness about his problems was deliberately timed to coincide with a visit to the region by President Joe Biden, who was due to arrive in South Korea this Thursday afternoon local time.
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"The fact that Kim Jong Un has decided to come out and publicly announce this health crisis is quite revealing," said Lina Yoon, senior Korea researcher at Human Rights Watch.
"(It can) have a political element, obviously."
This may not be the only way for Kim to ensure that Pyongyang is at the top of the agenda when Biden meets with the new leader of the South, Yoon Suk Yeol.
Intelligence from Washington suggests that Kim is planning a nuclear test or ICBM launch to coincide with the visit, an assessment shared by South Korea, which has prepared plans to respond to possible "provocations" from Pyongyang.
That would fit with Kim's recent behavior.
According to Seoul, on the same day that North Korea announced its outbreak, it fired three short-range ballistic missiles into waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan.
The lingering question is this: Will problems with Covid distract Kim from such a show of power, or make him more belligerent?
OPINION |
Why the covid-19 outbreak in North Korea could shock the world
Members of North Korea's military medical section work to distribute medicine to citizens at a pharmacy in Pyongyang on May 18, 2022, to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections. North Korea reported what it claims is its first Covid-19 outbreak on May 12. (Credit: Kyodo News via Getty Images)
"The most serious state of emergency"
While Pyongyang may be seeking attention, few would suggest that it is exaggerating its outbreak.
Indeed, until recently, the lack of officially reported cases had caused widespread skepticism.
His official death toll as of Thursday was 62, but experts say the true figure could be much higher and is likely to skyrocket.
State media reported that samples from some patients indicate they carried the omicron variant, whose high transmissibility could prove devastating in a population that is not only largely unvaccinated but, if official accounts are to be believed, has no natural immunity. through previous infections.
North Korea is not known to have imported any coronavirus vaccines, despite being eligible for the global covid-19 vaccine exchange program, Covax.
Last year, he publicly rejected an offer of almost three million doses of Sinovac vaccines from China.
On Monday, three North Korean cargo planes flew to China and back, according to a South Korean government official with knowledge of the matter.
It is not known what the planes were carrying, but the rare trip came after China pledged to help North Korea with its Covid outbreak.
"There is no evidence to show that North Korea has access to enough vaccines to protect its population from Covid-19," said Boram Jang, Amnesty International's East Asia researcher.
"With the first official news of a covid-19 outbreak in the country, continuing down this path could cost many lives and would be grossly negligent in defending the right to health."
In response, Kim was unusually willing to admit the problems facing his country, declaring a "most serious state of emergency" and ordering the closure of all provinces and cities.
But that that will stoke popular anger against Kim seems unlikely to many experts given his ability to manipulate the state's considerable propaganda machine, as long as he can prevent the crisis from directly affecting the country's ruling elites.
"If high-level elites start dying en masse — there are a lot of them, and we don't know if they're vaccinated — if a lot of them die, it may raise questions as to why North Korea didn't vaccinate earlier," Chad O said. 'Carroll, managing director of Seoul-based outlet NK News.
Since the outbreak was announced, along with videos telling people what to do if they have Covid symptoms, state television has spent a great deal of time on clips of Kim inspecting pharmacies and epidemic command centers, perhaps designed to show that he is in control of the situation.
Kim Jong Un mobilizes the North Korean army in response to the covid-19 outbreak
The covid outbreak is a test for Kim's medical care and leadership
Still, Human Rights Watch's Yoon said the very fact that Pyongyang publicly acknowledged the crisis suggested it had "very serious concerns" about the outbreak and the possibility of its spreading.
"(North Korea) has an unvaccinated and chronically malnourished population, and they don't have medicine to treat the basic symptoms of covid-19," Yoon said.
"North Korea is much more fragile than any other country we know of."
Yoon said North Korea now urgently needs outside help, particularly vaccines and medicines, and even if it accepts help (offers have come from both the South and the World Health Organization), the vaccination process is likely to be slow because the country lacks infrastructure to store or transport vaccines.
"It's going to test their leadership, and it's going to create some urgency to tell very creative stories in the North Korean propaganda apparatus," said O'Carroll of NK News.
A priority for Kim's state media will be to explain why strict border closures failed to keep omicron out.
O'Carroll noted that not only did those closures fail, but they were a determining factor in the severe food shortages facing countries, as they prevented grain and fertilizer deliveries.
One option for Kim would be to mount a public display of humility.
"We've seen Kim Jong Un cry over the nation's sacrifices (in the past). I think this is the kind of thing he can do to try to dampen the outrage," O'Carroll said.
"North Korean citizens have definitely been through a lot," he said.
"The first thing he could do is really apologize and take some blame for it."
In the meantime, if Kim is really thinking of a show of force to coincide with Biden's visit, he would do well to think of one of his latest shows of power.
O'Carroll said the timing of the North Korea outbreak suggested that a massive military parade Kim held last month to mark the 90th anniversary of his army's founding had become a "widespread event."
Crowds watching the parade were shown on video celebrating without face masks.
"We know that they brought citizens from all over North Korea to attend and celebrate that event," he said.
"That's the perfect petri dish for this virus to spread, so I think that parade will go down in history as a very bad idea for North Korea."
-- CNN's Jake Kwon contributed to this report
Covid-19Kim Jong Un
