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If Russia loses the Ukraine war, what could happen to Putin?

2022-05-20T04:58:13.899Z


If Russia loses the Ukraine war, what could happen to Putin? Created: 05/20/2022, 06:50 By: Bettina Menzel Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, launched a war of aggression in Ukraine on February 24. But what would happen if Russia lost the war? © picture alliance/dpa/AP | Alexander Zemlianichenko In an emergency, one must reckon with Putin's use of a tactical nuclear weapon, says a US nuclear


If Russia loses the Ukraine war, what could happen to Putin?

Created: 05/20/2022, 06:50

By: Bettina Menzel

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, launched a war of aggression in Ukraine on February 24.

But what would happen if Russia lost the war?

© picture alliance/dpa/AP |

Alexander Zemlianichenko

In an emergency, one must reckon with Putin's use of a tactical nuclear weapon, says a US nuclear expert - and shows four steps to a solution in the Ukraine war.

Boston - The renowned Eastern Europe expert Ivan Krastev recently warned that it would be particularly dangerous for the West if things were going badly for Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine conflict.

Then, from the point of view of the Russian President, the use of nuclear weapons could be "reasonable".

In an interview with Der Spiegel

, security and nuclear weapons expert Graham Allison also mentioned

the danger of using tactical nuclear weapons if Putin was on the verge of "losing everything".

Ukraine war analyzed: US expert considers Vladimir Putin "rational"

The political scientist Allison teaches at Harvard University and is considered a security and nuclear expert.

His work "Essence of Decision" is considered the standard work on the Cold War and analyzes decision-making in times of crisis.

In an interview with the news magazine published in

Spiegel

on Thursday (May 19) , Allison describes the current situation with a grotesque comparison.

"We are like Siamese twins, neither of whom can strangle the other without committing suicide."

Graham is alluding to the huge arsenal of nuclear weapons: According to the Stockholm Peace Institute Sipri, the United States and Russia possess 90 percent of all nuclear weapons in the world.

According to the security expert, Russia has 6375, the USA 5800. A way must therefore be found to survive together.

That also means dealing with a "mass murderer" - like Roosevelt and Churchill, who once sat down with Stalin.

From the expert's point of view, Putin is acting rationally: "Putin is rational in the sense of a person who is purposeful and assumes that he is striving for an achievable goal," Allison told

Der Spiegel

.

But the Russian president "grossly miscalculated" in not believing Ukraine to be the country it turned out to be.

“I don't think that Putin made a fatal mistake as evidence of a lack of rationality – neither was George W. Bush's attack on Iraq irrational.

he was stupid

It was a big strategic mistake.

But that's different," Allison continued.

Video: Summary of the latest news from the Ukraine war

Ukraine war: "In case of defeat, Putin assumes that he will lose his life"

The Pentagon and the White House are asking themselves whether Putin can lose this war and whether he can survive a defeat, explains the political scientist.

"I don't know what their answer is.

Mine is: no.

I think he is right to believe that in the event of a clear defeat, he will lose power and likely his life.” If Putin is forced to choose between that defeat and an escalation of violence and destruction, he will as a rational actor, opt for the latter, according to the expert.

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Communication from Ukrainian Railways: Hundreds of bodies of Russian soldiers in freezer wagons

The examples of Grozny and Mariupol show that Putin has no qualms about killing large numbers of people.

"If we give him the clear alternative of losing everything or taking a risk, we have to expect a tactical nuclear weapon to be used," Allison said.

The nuclear expert calls a "comparatively small atomic bomb" of 15 or 20 kilotons - comparable to that of Hiroshima.

With that, Vladimir Putin could kill between 20,000 and 50,000 people in a single act.

For comparison: Russia is said to have a nuclear torpedo that can be equipped with an explosive force of up to 100 megatons.

Allison does not expect that the US would use a tactical nuclear weapon itself in such a case.

"But we couldn't avoid doing something very dramatic," says the Harvard professor.

"For example, if we attack the bases from which the Russian Iskander missiles are launched, then Americans would kill Russians." One should therefore ask oneself whether one should give Putin the choice of "losing everything".

These four goals could end the Ukraine conflict without using nuclear weapons

Graham Allison sees four war goals for the US government under Joe Biden.

Taken together, they could end the war without Putin using nuclear weapons.

"

Goal one

: Ukraine will remain a free and independent country.

I am expressly not saying how much of its territory will initially remain occupied by Russia, but that the point is that it should thrive and ultimately get its territory back," said the nuclear expert.

Goal two

is to prevent World War III.

That would mean that no US or NATO soldier would kill a Russian or vice versa.

Goal three

is a decisive strategic defeat for Putin's Russia.

"Because at the end of this war, Russia and the world should recognize that the costs of this invasion far exceed its benefits and that Putin is significantly weakened," said the Harvard professor.

Goal four

is to strengthen the global security order.

The aim is to show that there are crimes under international law "that will not be accepted".

Political scientist Allison sums up the situation if this conflict can be brought to an end without Putin escalating, it could be a great success.

He is not alone in his assessment of Putin's possible use of nuclear weapons.

In addition to the Eastern Europe expert Ivan Krastev, the leading journal for US foreign policy

Foreign Affairs

also considers a “small-scale” nuclear strike by the Russian President to be possible.

"Should Putin make this decision, there is nothing in the Russian system that can stop him," writes the journal, citing the words of the Roman historian Tacitus about Rome's war tactics: "They made a desert and called it peace." That is an option for Putin in Ukraine.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-05-20

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