Vladimir Putin, together with from the left, the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan;
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko;
the president of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and that of Tajikistan, Emomali Rakhmon, on the 16th in the Kremlin.Alexander Nemenov (AP)
The 21st century has so far been a regressive time for democracy in the world.
After the flourishing after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the last two decades have seen dynamics of deterioration of many democracies and a considerable consolidation of so many authoritarian regimes.
On February 24, the day the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces began, the organization Freedom House published its annual report entitled "The global expansion of authoritarian rule," in which it warned that these types of systems already challenge democracy as the dominant model.
Since then, however, serious setbacks have accumulated in the authoritarian camp.
The offensive against Ukraine is causing serious losses to Russia in military and economic terms;
China is highly affected by pandemic outbreaks;
Turkey reached an inflation rate of 70% in April;
Cuba is bleeding in an eloquent migratory exodus, with 115,000 citizens who entered the US irregularly in seven months;
And although there is not much clear information available, everything points to North Korea facing a catastrophic situation due to covid.
Of course, positive developments can be found in these months in other of the many authoritarian regimes or amputated democracies that rule the world.
But it is significant that serious tribulations affect several of the most representative countries of the broad panorama of not fully democratic states.
Of course, also, each one suffers circumstances of a different nature, just as the vigor and government models of these countries are different.
But in all these cases there are at least signs of a common denominator: the problems linked to decision-making processes in systems lacking full freedom.
Many democracies suffer from dysfunctions that turn them into litigious, polarized, almost paralyzed systems.
In recent years, authoritarian regimes have highlighted these dysfunctions, and used their presumed effectiveness to strengthen their legitimacy.
China and Russia have verbalized the idea that the essence of democracy resides more in the service provided to citizens than in liberal institutions and certain representation mechanisms.
Regardless of the value judgment on this materialist interpretation of the concept of democracy, the events of recent months question the mantra of effectiveness.
They do not erase the dysfunctions of liberal democracies, nor do they in themselves represent a reversal of the historical trend highlighted in the Freedom House report, but at least they put the weaknesses of authoritarian management under the spotlight.
Substantially, some decision-making mechanisms weighed down by lack of pluralism, fear of speaking even within the system, inbreeding, dogmatism, eternalization of leadership.
"So far this century, democracies have suffered, first in geopolitical terms related to the invasion of Iraq, then with the economic crisis of 2008, the inability to control finances," says Vanni Pettinà, professor of International History at the College of Mexico.
“Now we are witnessing a moment in which things seem to be rearranging, the value of certain aspects of democracies reemerging and the problems of the regimes becoming evident.
A sort of revenge in which it is noted that, in authoritarian systems, with all the nuances linked to their different natures, there are distorted decision-making processes, in which sometimes the collective interest does not prevail, and in which it is almost always very Hard to reverse mistakes.
Democracies are slower,
but in that slowness there is a dialectic that allows us to better contemplate complexity.
And they are more flexible to correct”, considers Pettinà.
Below is a look at some of the current tribulations that affect various totems of the authoritarian or not fully democratic world.
Russia
The invasion of Ukraine launched by the Kremlin in February is a war episode still in progress.
Time will tell what its outcome will be.
For now, however, it is clear that it is exacting a huge cost for Russia in military, economic, and geopolitical terms.
Losses on the battlefield are difficult to quantify objectively, but they are undoubtedly enormous.
On the economic front, Western sanctions have not caused a complete collapse, but the damage is serious.
The Russian authorities foresee a contraction of the GDP of almost eight points this year and an inflation of 17%.
The brain drain will take its toll — between 50,000 and 70,000 computer scientists left in the first 4 weeks alone, according to a report by an industry association.
Energy incomes are high, but they are likely to end up being affected by the gradual, although difficult, western disconnection.
The level of imports has collapsed, not only from countries that impose sanctions, but even from others,
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All this is the result of decisions enlightened in a logic of power with serious distortions.
“A logic present in the Soviet culture and in that of Russia today, whereby the leader must be both a strong and feared man and that obviously represents a great weakness for the system”, says Carmen Claudín, associate senior researcher from CIDOB and an expert in Russia.
“The entourage of the big boss does not dare to speak freely in front of his superior nor does he reliably transmit all the information he has, which in turn has been filtered by his subordinates according to the criteria of what he presumably most likes to hear. to the superior”, continues the analyst, who mentions the tremendous scene of the Russian Security Council on the eve of the war, in which Putin humiliated Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the foreign intelligence service, before the cameras.
"That explains everything.
If that happens with such a prominent figure, if that person cannot contain their fear in front of the cameras, how will the others below dare to say something they don't like?
It is clear that what happened in Ukraine is the dire consequence of a certain logic in decision-making.
In these circumstances, the decisions made, the strategy designed, are weakened, invalid at the root, because they are based on a series of data and information that have little or nothing to do with reality”, concludes Claudín.
China
The Asian giant is facing a clear moment of difficulty.
The Beijing regime has continued to stick to its covid-zero policy in the face of the insurgency of new pandemic outbreaks with characteristics of much greater contagion than the first variants, which it managed to successfully contain by limiting the damage much better than Western democracies.
But the same policy applied to the new circumstances is highly questioned by many experts – including the WHO, which has described it as “unsustainable”.
A bridge closed in Shanghai due to confinements due to covid, on the 18th. ALY SONG (REUTERS)
The consequence is very harsh confinements that are affecting tens of millions of citizens and causing a considerable slowdown in the economy.
Retail sales, an important indicator of consumption, were 11% lower in April than in the same month of the previous year.
Real estate sales data are dismal, a drop of 40% compared to the previous year - a greater decline than that which occurred in the initial outbreak of the pandemic - which has led to a considerable readjustment of the reference rates of mortgages .
This situation allows for interesting reflections on the Chinese government model under the leadership of Xi Jinping.
Sarah Cook, director of research for China at Freedom House, points out two elements of analysis.
On the one hand, the expert highlights that “the inability of the Chinese Communist Party to admit a mistake clearly has a role in this situation.
They have tied so much of their legitimacy—and of Xi Jinping's own reputation—to the zero covid policy that with changing conditions they feel they cannot change policies.
This kind of rigid 'can't go back' dynamic is evident in other policies and positions that, if changed, could actually enhance the regime's legitimacy with much or some opinion.
But they have devoted so much of their effort to justifying the policy or the position,
On the other hand, Cook points to the factor of “the concentration of power in the figure of Xi and the type of 'cult of personality' that he has created.
He has in his hands many more political areas than previous leaders and is less collective in the decision-making process.
Furthermore, he has taken a much harder line in suppressing dissent within the CCP.
The result is that, for experts and for those who may support the regime but want to help it govern better, it is more difficult to make themselves heard”.
In this context, it is relevant to point out the lower efficacy of Chinese vaccines, Beijing's reluctance to accept Western RNA versions, and the large number of people over 60 years of age without a complete guideline.
These problems and the current circumstances do not equate China to the level of health and economic impact suffered by most Western countries, but it highlights deficiencies far removed from the trumpeted efficiency.
Turkey
Turkey is suffering serious turmoil linked to inflation that is close to 70% on a year-on-year basis.
In the case of food, it stands at 90%.
History teaches the danger of uncontrolled inflationary spirals.
In this case too, the crisis situation is closely linked to questionable aspects of the country's government model, specifically signs of nepotism and overreach by the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Currency and inflation-related problems are not new in Turkey, and Erdogan has made controversial decisions and positions.
He appointed his son-in-law as Finance Minister —who later resigned in November 2020— and very clearly pressured the Central Bank —among other things by dismissing a governor who resisted him— to maintain low rates in the midst of inflation disturbing.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, last May 18 in Parliament. TURKISH PRESIDENT PRESS OFFICE H (EFE)
Francisco Veiga, Professor of Contemporary History at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and a specialist in South-Eastern Europe and Turkey, points out some interesting defining features of the Erdoganist system.
“With Erdogan, the Muslim middle class of Central Anatolia takes power and secular Kemalists are marginalized.
The new classes that have come to power have been establishing themselves in the social structure, and to a great extent have relied on nepotistic, inbred selection processes.
This is true both for the upper echelons and at the level of small mayors.
The base of Erdogan's power lies in a distortion of certain sociopolitical elements that are typical of the Mediterranean basin and that we know here as caciquism.
Of course this leads to abusive decision making.”
Cuba
Cuba is affected by the umpteenth demographic hemorrhage, with 115,000 citizens who entered the United States irregularly in seven months, almost 1% of the total population (equivalent to some 400,000 people leaving Spain) and to a large extent youths.
Cuban asylum seekers in Yuma, Arizona, USA.
Anadolu Agency (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
The exodus is "obviously the result of a whole series of wrong economic decisions," says Pettinà, who is a specialist in the Latin American area.
“The interesting thing is to reflect on the reason for those decisions.
And probably the reason is that they have been considered optimal for the political system.
The regime fears that opening up the economy a lot will create nuclei of society that are more autonomous from the State and that in the medium term this could represent a challenge.
They perceive a dilemma between economic efficiency and survival of the political model”.
This week Cuba has received good news with the easing of some of the US sanctioning measures. However, neither the path of the bilateral relationship —on Friday Washington placed Cuba again on the list of countries that do not fully cooperate against terrorism—nor is that the definitive solution to ills that have largely internal roots.
Meanwhile, the suffering, and the exodus, continue.
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