The forest moves, Macbeth/Putin

To the paranoid, ambitious and criminal Macbeth, the witches told him that he would not be defeated until the great Birnam Forest advanced against him towards the high hill of Dunsinane.

What seemed impossible ended up happening, in the form of enemy soldiers camouflaged with branches of the forest that from there moved against an unjust leader.

Vladimir Putin also seems to move a few trees in the forest.

No one is going to attack him or Russia, nor did anyone intend to in this century.

But in political terms, the profile of a defeat is outlined more and more clearly, the feeling that he will be defeated, diminished.

In military terms, after repelling the Russian offensive against kyiv, the Ukrainian forces have also forced the withdrawal of the enemies that stalked the second city of the country, Kharkov.

Moscow has finally conquered Mariupol, or rather its rubble, almost three months later.

But it is an achievement that does not taste like a great victory in a context of huge losses against an adversary with much less firepower.

The Russian Defense Minister claimed on Friday that the complete "liberation" of the Luhansk province will be achieved soon.

However, in the background dynamics, it is noted that the Ukrainian forces have high morale, solid Western support of weapons and information, ample recruiting capacity;

that Russian women should not bathe in enthusiasm,

In geopolitical terms, Finland and Sweden have formally applied to join NATO, in a serious setback for the Kremlin.

Sweden was neutral for two centuries, and has been so with particular ideological conviction since World War II;

Finland remained unaligned out of necessity.

The entry of both into the EU has already changed things, but NATO's has a deep political value, as well as a military one.

It symbolizes the growing unity of the West and some important democracies in other parts, such as Japan, South Korea or Australia.

In geoeconomic terms, the West's disengagement from Russia is underway.

The Russian economy has not collapsed, and the Central Bank has even lowered interest rates somewhat lately.

Income from energy sales is high.

But make no mistake: the pain will be intense.

The GDP contraction forecast by the Russian authorities for 2022 is 8% while inflation will grow 17%;

a lot of gray matter has left the country;

and in the medium-long term, it is likely that the cornering of the energy industry will take its toll, as well as the lack of Western components that will hit various sectors.

Discontent will spread, no matter how much the trained media tries to change the focus and repression silences dissent.

The basic deal authoritarian regimes uphold is to provide some prosperity and stability in exchange for loss of freedom.

If the first part fails, they have a problem.

Of course, the forest moves slowly, and with difficulty.

It has members who do not miss an opportunity to take advantage of the veto power.

The Hungarian Viktor Orbán is holding back the implementation of the EU measures against Russian oil;

the Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan hinders the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO.

But it is not reasonable to think that they block

;

it is more so to think that they have a price – money for Hungary, sophisticated weapons from the United States for Turkey.

It may have to be paid now in the name of higher interest.

It will be necessary to write it down on the account sheet and recover the blackmail as soon as possible.

Of course, there is a lot of world that is not hostile to Putin and this can give him some oxygen.

But don't overestimate the extent to which they are willing to help him—in fact, they will rather try to take advantage of his weakness.

Nor should we forget the prospect of the West imposing secondary sanctions on those who deal with Russia, a veritable geo-economic roadkill.

Above all, a sensation takes shape.

After the squalid role of Russian forces in Ukraine;

to the extent that a lower degree of European dependence on its energy is consolidated;

and as an already weak economy hemorrhages, many in the world will lose their fear of Russia.

Bad news losing the respect of fear for those who do not have that of

.

It will continue to have nuclear bombs and vast natural resources.

No one will attack you.

Nor is its political end necessarily near.

But Putin must be watching the forest move.

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