While the French have been enjoying their journeys on public transport for a few weeks without wearing a mask, another European country is threatened by a new wave of Covid-19 infection.
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In Portugal, the daily increase in the number of cases is significant: in three weeks, the country has gone from 650 to 2,500 positive cases per day.
Compared to the number of inhabitants, these figures make it the second country in the world with the highest number of contaminations each day and suggest that Portugal is already crossed by a sixth wave.
“Little cousins” variants
It was expected by the Portuguese health authorities, but this changeover a few weeks from school holidays and the influx of tourists could force the country to reinstate certain measures.
If the mask is still compulsory in Portuguese transport and hospitals, the Portuguese Director General of Health, Graça Freitas, now recommends extending the wearing of the mask to “
closed and overcrowded environments
”.
This increase in the number of positive cases is probably linked to the predominance of the BA.4 and BA.5 variants in the territory.
Omicron variants which are the “
little cousins
” of the BA.2 variant, “
now 98% dominant in France
”, explains Robert Sebbag, infectious disease specialist at the Pitié Salpêtrière hospital.
“
A few weeks ago, Portugal was also largely dominated by BA.2.
In about ten days, the BA.5 took over
,” notes the specialist.
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Is this scenario bound to happen again in France?
If he wishes to “
remain cautious
” on the issue, Robert Sebbag believes that we “
should be entitled to it
”.
First, because “
with viruses, borders do not exist
”.
But above all because the BA.5 variant is "
significantly more contagious
" than the previous variants.
"
The increase in repeated proportion in different countries, such as Portugal and South Africa, indicates that this variant is spreading better than the previous
ones", explains Florence Débarre, researcher in evolutionary biology at the CNRS.
And if the BA.5 variant spreads further, it "
also presents a mutation previously identified as making it possible to circumvent the immune defenses of infected people
", points out the specialist.
In other words, this variant is more likely to reinfect previously infected people, or those with antibodies from the vaccine.
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Despite everything, Florence Débarre believes that there are "
fewer reasons to be worried
", compared to the beginnings of the Omicron wave last winter.
On April 20, the risk analysis of Public Health France identified only 3 cases concerned by these variants.
A month later, the risk analysis reports 11 confirmed cases of BA.
4 and 36 confirmed cases of BA.5.
"
The proportion of BA.4 and BA.5 is still low but slightly increasing: 0.3% for BA.4 and 0.5% for BA.5
", develops the analysis.
“
At this rate, it would take us about a month for this variant to become the majority
,” comments the researcher.
New generation vaccine
A gradual increase which, without worrying us, should, according to Benjamin Davido, infectious disease specialist at the Raymond-Poincaré hospital in Garches, lead to a reversal of certain measures.
“
With the end of the obligation to wear a mask in European airspace, all the elements are in place for the variant to spread more quickly in France
”, he believes.
Another point on which the predominance of this variant in Portugal should make you think: the need to develop vaccines.
"
Even if the situation seems to have improved, we must not waste time
," warns Benjamin Davido, stressing in particular that a large part of the Portuguese population - including children - is vaccinated.
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“
This new variant shows us that no immunity is eternal,
he continues.
The vaccine we offer today is no longer suitable for these new strains, it will not be enough to protect the most vulnerable people in the event of a new wave.
“
The BA.4 and BA.5 variants therefore remind us that it is essential to seek a new generation vaccine
,” concludes the infectiologist.