The assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guards officer in Tehran yesterday seems like a continuation of the shadow war between Israel and Iran.
It is likely that Iran will be in a hurry to point the finger of blame at the Mossad, and, as usual, at revenge.
The assassination was carried out in a familiar pattern from the past: shooting by motorcyclists, who fled the scene.
In the same way, those who killed a number of nuclear scientists in the past decade, as well as those who killed Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (Abu Muhammad al-Masri), No. 2 in al-Qaeda, and who was responsible for the 1998 terrorist attacks in Kenya and Tanzania.
In all previous cases, Israel has been accused of assassinations;
In al-Masri's case, even officials in Washington admitted that it was carried out at the request of the US administration, exactly on the day the terrorist attacks in Africa took place.
At the same time, the Iranian authorities were quick to report yesterday on a pursuit of the assassins.
Of course, even in the present case the abandoned motorcycle will be found, but the traces of the shooters will disappear.
The nature of such operations, which include extreme care for all the details, also to ensure the rescue of the assassins, but no less - to prevent the possibility that they will be linked to the person who ordered the operation from them.
Such an operation requires exceptional intelligence capability in the target country.
It includes building a portfolio on the object: personal specifications, manner of conduct and places of residence and work, to his involvement in hostile activity.
Assuming that Israel is indeed behind it, the elimination goes through a long sieve of approvals within the Mossad and the defense establishment, and of the political echelon.
Timing also has weight, and political circumstances are also taken into account.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi (Archive),
Unlike previous assassinations carried out on Iranian soil, the target this time was not related to the Iranian nuclear program but to the Quds Force responsible for exporting the Iranian revolution - a laundered definition of Iranian terrorist activity around the world.
According to the official announcement in Tehran, Colonel (Colonel) Hassan Siad Khadiri was active in Syria, and was likely involved in weapons smuggling efforts against Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Syria, as well as Iranian attempts to establish itself in the country and on the border with Israel.
If Israel did carry out the assassination, one can learn from the fact that Jerusalem is not confining the campaign against these Iranian efforts only to Bambam in Syria, but extending it to other provinces. In this respect, it is a clear signal to Iran; Expensive, even on its land, if it continues its activities.
It is doubtful whether the Iranians are out of their way, and yet - the importance of messages of this kind should not be underestimated.
Beyond the immediate operational damage to Quds Force activity (each such officer is required to appoint a replacement, who will take time to enter the job and reach operational effectiveness), the elimination will exert immediate psychological pressure on all top Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force.
Iran, as expected, was quick to announce yesterday that it had arrested an Israeli "spy network."
It is likely that it is intended to reduce public and internal pressure on them not to retain senior government officials, and more importantly - that they are importing the war from Syria home.
Such criticism has been heard more and more in Iran in recent years, especially around the claim that Iran is investing the little money it has in foreign provinces and not in its economy, which has degenerated into an unprecedented slump.
While this criticism is very troubling to the authorities, so far it has not caused them to stop efforts to arm their envoys across the region;
The precedent-setting liquidation on her land should, at the very least, create dilemmas for her regarding the price she pays for it.
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