Turning point in Ukraine?

Expert sees opportunities for Kyiv - but also danger of a "forgotten war"

Created: 05/23/2022, 16:52

By: Bettina Menzel

According to one military expert, if there were a trench warfare, Russia would have the advantage.

Pictured: A soldier of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic watches the Ukrainian positions from a trench on January 7, 2017.

© picture alliance/Celestino Arce Lavin/Zuma Press/dpa |

Celestino Arce Lavin

One expert believes that Putin's hybrid warfare could end up being successful.

But Ukraine has a chance of launching a counteroffensive - as long as it receives the appropriate weapons.

Kyiv/Moscow - Ukraine has now extended martial law by a further 90 days, but experts believe the war will probably last even longer.

Under certain conditions, Ukraine could succeed in regaining land in the Donbass.

But there is a risk that the escalating Ukraine conflict will become a "forgotten war" - and thus a success for Putin.

The military expert Carlo Masala said on Monday (May 23) in an interview with the news magazine

.

Ukraine war: military expert sees arms deliveries as a decisive factor for Ukrainian success

At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it initially looked as if Russia would have superior military power - simply because of the larger infantry.

However, according to experts, Putin's attack actually progressed more slowly than planned.

The number of soldiers alone says nothing about combat strength, said military expert and professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, Carlo Masala, on Monday in an interview with

.

The question is rather what morality prevails there.

According to official figures, 50 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers die every day.

But Russia also suffered significant losses.

The country went to war with 120,000 soldiers, according to estimates by the British secret service "30 percent of these soldiers would no longer exist," Masala said.

They either died, were captured or deserted.

Ukraine war: Russian troops 'fight 24/7, leading to extreme exhaustion'

The ratio in Donbass is 2 to 1: "There are still twice as many Ukrainian soldiers there as Russian ones," the military expert continued.

The Ukrainians could therefore take units out and pause them, while the Russian forces “fight 24/7, leading to extreme exhaustion.”

Russia is currently trying to hold its positions in eastern Ukraine and wait there for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukrainians would have a chance to take away from Russia in Donbass areas.

Because the Ukrainian troops have shown that they can operate very well on a tactical level, Masala continued.

However, this is only possible if enough weapons are available.

"Artillery is needed above all - in Germany this involves the delivery of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 - and tanks," explained the military expert.

Carlo Masala, military expert and professor for international politics at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich.

© Jürgen Heinrich/Imago

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Ukraine War: Putin's 'Hybrid Warfare' Could Lead to Russia's Victory

Putin is repeatedly accused of "hybrid warfare".

He should therefore deliberately ensure a supply crisis in order to increase the flow of refugees.

"Russia is also waging this war with a silent weapon: hunger and deprivation," said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on this tactic.

Military expert Masala shares this opinion.

Hunger, flight and expulsion are part of Russian warfare.

The crisis on the Polish-Russian border before the start of the Ukraine war served as a "test balloon" for Putin.

The Russian President wanted to understand how Europe deals with refugees.

Because the Kremlin wants to "increase social tension in our societies and thus put pressure on the government so that it does not support Ukraine as much as is currently the case." When asked by the

moderator whether this tactic could work, she replied the expert is convinced: "In the long run, this will succeed."

Because the big problem in Ukraine is currently its success.

"Nobody believed the country could survive for three months," says Masala.

"If we now move on to trench warfare, where relatively little is happening - heavy fighting but no major victories on the Russian or Ukrainian side - it will become a kind of 'forgotten war'." Given the immense cost of supporting the Ukraine governments could lose popular support.

"It is to be feared that the USA, Western European governments or perhaps some Eastern European governments will then start to influence Ukraine, agree to peace negotiations and possibly accept concessions just to stop this war because it will reduce costs for us," Masala describes a possible scenario.

Vladimir Putin would then achieve what he wanted.

It may not be all of Ukraine, but the arch to the Black Sea, Crimea anyway and the rest of the Donbass.