Putin and Lukashenko debate the "Union State" – Ukraine reports alarming movement at Belarus' border

Created: 05/24/2022Updated: 05/24/2022, 20:24

By: Bettina Menzel

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko during their meeting in Sochi on May 23.

© Ramil Sitdikov/Sputnik/AFP

Putin and Lukashenko meet in Sochi.

It could be about "integration" of Russia and Belarus.

Almost at the same time, Ukraine reports movements at the border.

• In the escalated Ukraine conflict

  : President Putin and Belarusian ruler Lukashenko will meet in Sochi on Monday.

• Central theme

  : The integration cooperation between Russia and Belarus in a union state.

• Military activities on the Belarusian border

  : According to Kiev, Belarus is apparently assembling armed forces at the border.

Update from May 24, 10:07 a.m .:

Vladimir Putin met the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko on Monday (May 23), a close ally of Russia in the Ukraine war.

According to a report by British news channel CNN, Putin said at the meeting that Russia would withstand the effects of Western sanctions.

"Despite all the difficulties, the Russian economy is withstanding the consequences of the sanctions, and it is withstanding them quite well," Putin is quoted as saying.

"You can say that according to all the main macroeconomic indicators."

The Russian central bank had estimated at the end of April that the Russian economy will shrink by eight to ten percent in 2022 as a result of the international sanctions imposed on the country.

The World Bank estimated in April that Russia's gross national product would fall by 11.2 percent.

One economist is even certain that Russia will return to the level of a developing country.

Many well-known companies withdrew from Russia after Putin launched a war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24.

First report:

Sochi/Russia – Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko in Sochi on Monday.

The two heads of state want to discuss issues related to their cooperation - the union state of Belarus and Russia may be under discussion again.

Agreements on this have existed for over 20 years, and in November last year Putin and Lukashenko signed a new decree.

Putin and Lukashenko speak in the Ukraine war in Sochi: These are the issues

Officially, Putin's meeting with Lukashenko should deal with questions of further cooperation.

This was announced by the Russian news agency Interfax on Monday night.

The "integration cooperation" between Russia and Belarus in a union state is mentioned as a central topic.

Industry collaborations and collaboration in the field of rocket science could also be part of the conversation.

The handling of Belarusian goods in Russian ports and the construction of a Belarusian port near St. Petersburg are also to be discussed, the statement continues.

War in Ukraine: Kyiv warns of military activities on Belarusian border

The situation in Ukraine could also be an issue.

So far, Belarus had not actively participated in the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

But now Lukashenko is pulling the military together at the border, at least according to Ukraine's assessment.

"The Belarusian armed forces are conducting increased reconnaissance and have set up additional units in the border area," the Ukrainian general staff said in its situation report on Monday.

There is a risk of missile and air strikes on Ukraine from Belarusian territory, the report said.

The information could not initially be verified independently.

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Lukashenko under pressure: will the union state of Russia and Belarus become more concrete?

Alexander Lukashenko is considered the “last dictator in Europe”.

In 2020, he declared himself the winner of a controversial presidential election - the result was not recognized by the West.

The election was neither fair nor free, commented the then Chancellor Angela Merkel.

After Lukashenko took office, EU and US sanctions against Belarus came into effect in October last year.

Minsk's dependence on Moscow was becoming ever clearer.

International political observers now consider the possibility of Belarus joining Russia to be "quite real".

However, Lukashenko had ruled out plans to join Russia in April.

The idea of ​​a Russian-Belarusian union state is not new: Lukashenko signed a treaty on it more than 20 years ago - the then President Boris Yeltsin signed on the Russian side.

The union of the two countries has not yet become concrete, apart from defense and customs issues.

But in November 2021, Putin and Lukashenko revived the idea and signed a new decree on the union state.

It envisages 28 programs that will bring Russia and Belarus closer together, especially in the economic and social fields.

However, political integration is not noted in writing; the document rather speaks of “harmonization”.

It seems doubtful that Lukashenko has much of a say in this.

Because Belarus is financially, but also militarily dependent on Russia - and is now almost completely isolated internationally.

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