ANALYSIS | Why Republicans feel little political pressure for stricter gun control

Heartbreaking lifeguard testimony.

He thus learned of the death of his daughter 4:46

(CNN) --

Tuesday's fatal shooting of 19 children and two adults in Uvalde, Texas, has shocked the country, evoking memories of other tragic school shootings like Columbine, Newtown and Parkland, and renewing calls for Congress to do something.

But the response to those calls from many Republican lawmakers is the same now as it has almost always been: The country should not have stricter gun control.

Why are these Republicans refusing to act?

Despite the fact that many believe that stricter gun control would not prevent such mass shootings, a look at the data reveals that there is simply no political pressure to do so.

• Sinister texts and a previous shooting: What we know about the Texas elementary school massacre that killed 21 people

While there are certainly some Americans who want tighter gun control, the general public is far more divided on this issue than much of the commonly cited polling data would have you believe.

Perhaps the best way to understand the public's mindset in the gun control debate is to look at Gallup's poll from earlier this year, which posed a simple question and follow-up: Are you satisfied with gun laws? from the country?

And if you're dissatisfied, do you want tougher or looser gun laws?

This is requested by the father of Lexi Rubio, a girl victim of the shooting in Texas 2:08

This year, only 36% of Americans said they were dissatisfied and wanted stronger gun control laws.

61% were satisfied (41%), dissatisfied but wanted less stringent laws (13%) or dissatisfied and did not want any change (7%).

advertising

These figures vary a bit from year to year, but the opinion of "dissatisfied and wants stricter gun laws" has never been in the majority in this century.

The reason I like the question is that it gets to the intensity of feeling about the gun debate.

Most people are generally fine with our country's gun laws (as far as they're happy) or want them to be less strict.

Even if Americans are simply asked if they want tighter gun control (that is, without first asking about satisfaction), the country appears to be largely divided.

At the end of last year, 52% of Americans indicated that they wanted stricter gun control, according to Gallup.

46%, within the margin of error, thought that the laws should remain the same (35%) or be made less strict (11%), according to the same survey.

Of course, these numbers can be hard to fathom when polls also indicate that more than 80% of Americans want universal background checks for guns, something Democrats have been pushing in Congress and most Republicans they refuse to accept.

The thing is, there's no indication that background check polls are going to hold up in elections.

Consider the results of ballot measures in two states in 2016: Maine and Nevada voted within one point of the national presidential vote that year.

The latter is quite ethnically diverse, while the former is overwhelmingly white.

• "My sweetie now flies with the angels": what we know about the victims of the Uvalde, Texas school shooting

A proposal to expand background checks passed by less than one point in Nevada and failed by just under 4 points in Maine.

Why might Republicans feel political pressure to support more gun control, when something that does as well in the polls as universal background checks can't beat the Democratic presidential baseline in swing states?

Now, I'm not sure what exactly explains the discrepancy between the polls and the election results.

But the election results match what we see in other polls.

School shooting survivor relives her experience 4:24

In fact, most Republicans don't feel pressured to act on gun control because voters are just as likely to trust them on guns as they are Democrats.

A Pew Research Center poll from earlier this year showed that 38% of Americans agreed with Republicans on gun policy, compared to 37% who agreed with Democrats, a result within the range of error and that it has been constant in the polls.

At the same time, the CNN/SSRS poll from earlier this year revealed that enthusiasm on the gun issue was, if anywhere, on the Republican side.

45% of Republican-leaning voters said gun policy was extremely important to their vote in Congress in 2022, while 40% of Democratic-leaning voters said the same.

Those who said gun policy was one of their top issues were more likely to have supported Donald Trump in 2020 than Joe Biden.

So, will the events in Uvalde change any opinion?

It's obviously too early to tell, but it's worth noting that there was a jump in the polls in the percentage of Americans who wanted tougher gun laws after the aforementioned Columbine, Newtown and Parkland shootings.

If Democrats are going to get any Republicans to join them in pursuing tougher gun laws, it would have to happen now.

If he doesn't, history tells us there probably won't be another chance until there's sadly another mass shooting.

Guns in the US Shootings in the US