That Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard is not Andrés Manuel López Obrador's favorite to become his successor is evident.
The reasons why the head of the Government of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, would be closer to the president's mood have been addressed in many analysis spaces, including this one.
The main one, without a doubt, is the fact that she is a figure formed in the ranks of the workshop and is perceived by locals and strangers as someone with greater possibilities of guaranteeing the continuity of the social and political project started in this six-year term.
And it goes without saying that, as the end of his cycle approaches, for López Obrador the consolidation of the many things that will remain unfinished will become an obsession.
We can see it in the increasingly frequent mentions about it.
In that sense, Sheinbaum's contrast with Ebrard is obvious;
the long and varied trajectory of the latter and the political stature that he enjoys in his own right, which could be virtues in other circumstances, become a burden for the purposes of being considered the dolphin of the movement's leader.
And Ebrard's chances would be even lower if, as the president says, the issue of succession was defined in a survey among Morena supporters (beyond the fact that they usually coincide with the president's preferences).
In the open population, the two pre-candidates would be in a technical tie according to different polls, but among the militants of that party, Sheinbaum's advantage is wide.
And this will hardly change, unless the president wants it to change.
From this angle, the chancellor's prospects are meager, to the point that some analysts wonder if it would not be more convenient for him to begin seeking support from other political forces.
But from another angle that is not so obvious.
After all, for now there are only two viable candidates, with a great distance on a third.
The presidential race is more like a survival marathon, and the fact that two runners have broken away from the rest of the pack in such a way is no small thing.
The difference, of course, is that in the marathon the second place gets a silver medal, in this race, on the other hand, nothing is taken away except the probable animosity of the next president.
Perhaps the 18 months that remain before Morena must make a decision is an insufficient period to reduce his disadvantage in the National Palace but, on the other hand, any political imponderable or an unforgivable slip of his rival would automatically leave him as a leader.
In such conditions, giving up this career to enroll in another is suicidal.
In short, so far and so close.
What are the times and scenarios of Marcelo Ebrard?
1.- With Obrador until the end
.
In payment of this option, the Chancellor could entrust himself to two factors.
A) That the competition against the other parties turns out to be much more closed than what is now envisioned, either because the opposition achieves a unified and relatively viable candidacy or because the erosion of the Government leaves Morena with less intention to vote, to the extent that the president is forced to opt not necessarily for his favorite but for the one who ensures victory, under the assumption that Ebrard is that "someone".
B) Bet until the last moment on the emergence of the aforementioned imponderable that in some way makes the candidacy of the current leader unfeasible as the final stretch approaches.
Apparently the two factors would be beyond Ebrard's control.
But only in an apparent way, because this strategy can be operated in two intensities.
active,
trying to influence this scenario, which would break spears with Sheinbaum's team and ultimately with the workshop if she wins.
And passive, conserving the possibility that, if the factors do not present themselves, in the end negotiating with the designated one, becoming useful and betting on a next opportunity.
2.- Rupture with the workshop.
One would have to ask if an open rupture is really a viable scenario or political coffee speculation.
If Ebrard wishes, he can be the candidate of some party, without a doubt, the question is whether that would allow him to aspire to victory.
The underlying theme is the PAN.
Assuming, without conceding, that he achieves the representation of the PRI, the PVEM and the Citizen Movement, it is frankly difficult for the blue and white to join the cause of a political protagonist who has always been on the opposite sidewalk.
And without the PAN he would not be enough against the official candidate.
It could be argued that, given the limited possibility that the PAN would have to compete alone, in an in extremis argument it could yield in order to remove the Obradorismo from the Palace.
It is not impossible, but it is unlikely.
3.- Threat of Rupture or Eruviel solution
.
When leaving the governorship of the State of Mexico, to seek the presidency of the country, Enrique Peña Nieto tried to impose Alfredo del Mazo, current governor, as the PRI candidate.
Eruviel Ávila, the then charismatic mayor of Ecatepec from the same party, threatened to lead an opposition alliance and compete with Peña Nieto's pupil.
The latter, who could not afford a local defeat and set out on the road to Los Pinos, leaving his back exposed, chose to hand over the candidacy to Eruviel.
It is not a likely scenario for Ebrard because López Obrador is not someone who usually gives in to political pressure.
But it is also true that the chancellor does not have to make this scenario explicit if it floats in the air.
There are intermediate options between these three scenarios.
For example, stay in the first until the last stage and if the conditions do not favor you, explore the other two options.
However, personally, I believe that the chancellor's best alternative is still to bet on what his contribution to the Obradorista movement represents and make it count.
It is not clear that the electorate as a whole opts for a version that, for real or apparent reasons, is perceived as radical.
Nor is it ruled out that López Obrador himself ends up leaning towards a more conciliatory or moderate option to consolidate his reforms.
It should be insisted that beyond his polarizing discourse, AMLO's public policies seek to introduce change within a stable and responsible process.
Ebrard could well maintain that true continuity is not the one that repeats the formula but the one that adapts it to the needs and makes it possible.
The chancellor's team would have to be working on viable political, financial and logistical approaches and solutions to land what will remain unfinished: universal health, development of the southeast, social injustice, poverty, insecurity, among others.
That would be the best argument against López Obrador.
Personally, I believe that, although with substantial nuances, Claudia Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard are the two profiles with the greatest capacity and professionalism to lead the destinies of the country, far from the rest of the candidates, inside or outside of Morena.
It will be an interesting discussion.
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