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Terrorism from head to toe Israel today

2022-05-26T09:30:09.773Z


The US President's decision to keep the Revolutionary Guards on the list of terrorist organizations is the first evidence that the administration will not do everything on its way to a renewed nuclear deal • And this week's assassination in Tehran was not the last of its kind


US President Joe Biden's decision not to remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorist organizations has brought joy to Israel, and rightly so. Ready to cross.

Israel has turned worlds upside down to persuade the administration not to back down from the Revolutionary Guards.

This was Prime Minister Bennett's flagship project, and also his most significant political achievement to date.

There is no Israeli who came to Washington and did not talk mainly about it, and there is no American who visited the country and did not hear mainly about it.

Backed by a wealth of intelligence material, the Israelis presented the Americans with conclusive evidence that the Revolutionary Guards are an organization whose activities are immersed in terrorism from head to toe;

Terrorism in the world against a variety of targets, and terrorism in Iran.

Cynics will say it was a victory for the poor: Israel failed to persuade the administration to continue on the tough line against Iran and not to strive for a new nuclear deal, and contented itself with victory in a relatively marginal battle.

On the other hand, this relatively marginal victory also has value, and even twofold: it not only keeps the Revolutionary Guards in the place they deserve, with all the accompanying restrictions, but also perhaps thwarts the possibility of reaching an agreement that official Israel so opposes.

Not a bomb, but a revolution

Those who recently met with senior government officials were under the impression that they were "desperate" (this is the terminology used) as to the chances of reaching an agreement with Iran.

Washington has indeed come a long way in contacts towards Tehran, but has encountered great rigidity and hostility.

Some experts explain this by saying that the Iranians identified the current administration as weak, and decided to challenge it to the limit.

Other experts believe that the Iranians simply do not believe the Americans wherever they are, and fear that sooner or later they will also violate the next agreement.

Opinions are also divided on whether the lack of an agreement is good or bad.

The one side, which favors the agreement, is faithfully represented by former head of the Armed Forces, Tamir Heiman. It will buy time to prepare militarily and politically for the possibility that the agreement will collapse or expire, or that Iran will decide to violate it and explode a bomb.

On the other hand, the official Israeli position is that the agreement in its proposed format is bad because of its relatively imminent expiration, which in the end frees Iran from unrestricted nuclear activity.

Even during the agreement, it will be able to continue R&D in advanced centrifuges, the installation and operation of which in the future will allow it to re-accumulate enriched uranium in quantities and speeds several times greater than in the past. In a position that is several times stronger and more dangerous the day after the agreement.

At the moment, at least, it seems to be an idle debate.

Iran and the West seem far from an agreement, despite the mediation efforts of a host of factors.

One can learn quite a bit from this about the willingness of the ayatollah regime to pay a heavy economic and social price for its principles;

Anyone who chooses to translate this into hopes that Iran will collapse soon is doing so at his own risk.

Similar dreams have in the past shattered to the ground of reality, and in any case - the overarching goal of the regime is not a bomb but the preservation of the revolution, and he will do nothing to endanger it.

In Israel, they hoped that this impasse would lead the United States to toughen its stance on Iran: to take more sanctions to push it to the wall, and to make concessions from it. The Americans, it seems, are not in the right direction; In the region (as always, the highlight is Saudi Arabia).

This is a welcome step, but one that floods a problem: this American policy is perceived by the countries of the region as a weakness, and leads them to pursue a "both" policy - both to get closer to Israel, and also to get closer to Iran.

This is particularly evident in Qatar, but also in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

The Americans will try to change this trend during his forthcoming visit to President Biden's area, including around the attempt to curb the galloping of oil prices, which soared following the war in Ukraine.

The lack of an agreement on the one hand, and the lack of aggravation of sanctions and activities against Iran on the other, oblige Israel to prepare for independent action.

On the intelligence side, close monitoring is needed to make sure that Iran does not break into the bomb, nor does it make secret progress on the issue of nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, the Iranians, as usual, seem to be on the verge;

Defense Minister Ganz revealed last week that they have installed thousands of advanced centrifuges at an underground site near Natanz, which will allow them to enrich faster and more protected in the future.

But Israel's main challenge will be on the operational side.

Although the IDF is practicing attack on Iran as part of the extensive exercise it is conducting this month, it is far from a real operational response. For that to happen, huge investments of billions are needed - in offensive platforms and weapons, and a significant expansion of the defense response.

In order for there to be such an answer in two or three years, decisions must be made today.

This is a matter that will be left to the next chief of staff, along with a question that Israel will have to seriously discuss, for the first time in many decades: can it rely almost exclusively on the Americans, or should it expand the toolbox it develops in blue and white? Against the background of the lessons of the war in Russia, and the fear that in the future there may be those who will seek to impose restrictions or sanctions on Israel as well, in the event of a war or a controversial operation in the northern or Palestinian arena.

The potential damage dilemma

Such a large-scale confrontation is now being practiced in the IDF, but in reality it seems very far away. It could have become practical if Israel had decided to eliminate Yahya Sinwar, as the masses demanded. The IDF opposed this, claiming that the elimination would not change reality In the south: Sinwar's successor, the experts determined, would surely be more radical than him, and perhaps no less effective.

This is a constant dilemma in liquidations - is the potential harm greater than the benefit.

History is full of examples here and there: the assassinations of Imad Mourniyeh, Qassem Suleimani and Fathi Shakaki have achieved impressive results;

The assassination of Abbas Mousavi achieved the opposite effect.

The decision should take into account the centrality of the potential assassin, being an exclusive center of knowledge or command, the ease / difficulty of replacing him, and the overall weight to be eliminated in deterring the enemy.

Whoever decided to eliminate Hassan Siad Khadiri in Tehran this week took into account that the Iranians would seek revenge, and estimated that revenge could be prevented or reduced, and especially that the value of the assassination outweighed its dangers.

Days will tell if this is the case, but in the meantime it seems, again, that in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, the first hand is on the top.

Given the lack of a nuclear agreement and in view of the continued Iranian activity in the region, it can be estimated that this week's assassination in Tehran was not the last of its kind;

The gun that appeared (fired) in the first act, will return fired in the following acts as well. 

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Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2022-05-26

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