ukrainian lessons

Bloodthirsty and heartless teacher, war also imparts its lessons.

Not everyone pays attention to her ruthless pedagogy or profits from her lectures.

It is not usually the case of those who are in charge of freeing them if the case arises.

If they have diligently studied those of the past, with greater attention they observe and draw conclusions from contemporary ones, and with greater reason when it is a question, like the one in Ukraine, of an exceptional war, of those that transform the world and the time.

The most successful students are now in Beijing and Washington.

Nothing that happens on the battlefields goes unnoticed by them: about deterrence and prevention, strategy and tactics, weapons performance and logistics, or soldier morale, but also alliances, propaganda or the use of digital technologies... They are not only motivated by the desire to know or the necessary preparation for future conflicts, but now they have a more concrete and immediate reason, such as the eventual repetition of a conflict almost traced to that of Ukraine in which China and the United States are in conflict over Taiwan, just as Russia and NATO are now in conflict over Ukraine.

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Biden affirms that the US would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China

Xi Jinping has taken note of Putin's failure in the lightning assault on kyiv.

He has been surprised by the military incompetence of the Russian Army, heir to the Red Army that his country took as a model.

He has observed the European reaction capacity and the unusual display of transatlantic unity, as if the hasty departure from Afghanistan had been a feint to deceive the enemies, instead of a catastrophe and a source of division between the partners of the Alliance.

Joe Biden has even begun to apply the lessons.

He has told Xi Jinping that if he does to Taiwan what Putin does to Ukraine, he will not just provide weapons to his ally, but he will go further and intervene directly in the contest.

This time it is not the error of an elderly president, with little control of his words, but a calculated statement that undoes for a moment the strategic ambiguity historically practiced by the two superpowers.

He knows very well that it was his statements that trivialized the importance of a small territorial loss of Ukraine to Russia that could have inclined Putin to decide to undertake the invasion.

It is difficult for expansionist and authoritarian powers that have nuclear weapons not to be tempted by the law of the strongest and then demand that no one interfere in their affairs.

It is what Putin wanted from Washington and Brussels and what Xi Jinping envisioned for a forcible annexation of Taiwan.

Everything has become clearer after Biden's Asian tour.

Taiwan will not be like Ukraine.

The transatlantic link links with the transpacific link.

The new bipolarity is already rearing its head.

This is how the wars of the present are anticipated and even the wars of the future can be foreseen and avoided.

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