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Normalized nucleic acid instead of lockdown? "Chinese-style coexistence route" is emerging

2022-05-27T00:42:17.927Z


Affected by the epidemic, China is currently "saving the economy at all costs." On May 25, the State Council held a national teleconference on stabilizing the economy.


Affected by the epidemic, China is currently "saving the economy at all costs." On May 25, the State Council held a national teleconference on stabilizing the economic market. This conference of 100,000 people directly connected to districts and counties, horizontal to side and vertical to the end, is very rare. The severe economic situation in China.

Li Keqiang also said frankly at the conference, "In March, especially since April, indicators such as employment, industrial production, electricity consumption and freight have fallen significantly, and the difficulties are greater in some aspects and to a certain extent than when the epidemic was severely impacted in 2020." Development is the foundation and key to solving all problems in our country", "We must complete the task of economic and social development while doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, and comprehensively grasp it to prevent one-size-fits-all and one-size-fits-all", "The main economic indicators for the second quarter of various regions will be calculated by the national statistics. Departments shall seek truth from facts in accordance with laws and regulations and announce them by province.”

Stabilizing expectations and confidence is indeed at the most urgent moment in today's China. Commentary articles by the official media in the past few days are also trying to rebuild the two basic consensuses formed since China's opening to the outside world and economic construction as the center.

For example, People's Daily Online published a commentary on the 25th, saying, "Adhering to economic construction as the center is the requirement of the party's basic line, and development is the foundation and key to solving all problems in our country." "Economic Daily" published a long signed article on the 26th, "Comprehensive A Dialectical View of the Current Economic Situation" wrote, "No matter how the international situation changes, China's determination to expand a high level of opening up will not change, nor will China's willingness to provide more market opportunities, investment opportunities, and growth opportunities for the world."

(For more information, see "The Great Pandemic Teases Two Basic Consensus on China's Reconstruction and Has Come to the Most Critical Moment")

On April 11, 2022, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang presided over a symposium with the main leaders of some local governments on the economic situation in Jiangxi.

(CCTV video screenshot)

Faced with this economic situation and pressure, many people have begun to speculate: How long can China's "dynamic clearing" policy last?

The logic of this is that as long as the existing measures to prevent and control the epidemic remain unchanged, liquidity cannot be guaranteed, and there will be intermediate obstacles when economic operations return to normal, and it will be difficult to truly "live".

From "preventing the epidemic at all costs" to "saving the economy at any cost", how should China's epidemic prevention work out a balanced path of "strive to achieve the greatest prevention and control effect at the least cost and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development" ?

Judging from the current layout of China's normalized epidemic prevention and control mechanism, China is already exploring a "Chinese-style coexistence route" based on its own national conditions and practices. Different from China's "shock therapy" that often closed down areas and cities in the past, this coexistence route relies on normalized nucleic acid testing at the prevention and discovery level, as well as the preparation of hardware facilities such as permanent shelters at the treatment level.

On May 16, the 10th issue of Qiushi magazine in 2022 published an article by Ma Xiaowei, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of China's National Health Commission, "Unswervingly Implement the General Policy of "Dynamic Clearing" and Resolutely Consolidate Major Strategic Achievements in Epidemic Prevention and Control.

The article mentioned for the first time a series of layouts for improving the normalized testing mechanism in China, including: the establishment of nucleic acid "sampling circles" within 15 minutes of walking in provincial capitals and cities with a population of more than 10 million, regular testing every week, and increasing the frequency of testing for key groups; Nucleic acid testing capabilities, focusing on mobile testing capabilities, strengthen the construction of public testing laboratories, urban testing bases, and third-party laboratories; try not to crowd out daily medical resources in the deployment of sampling personnel, and the testing capabilities of medical institutions mainly guarantee daily disease diagnosis and treatment ; Strengthen the capacity for admission and isolation, plan and prepare in advance designated hospitals and sub-designated hospitals, permanent makeshift hospitals, and centralized isolation points, and prepare sufficient human and material resources for prevention and control to ensure that they can be activated quickly in the event of an epidemic; In terms of control, continue to adhere to the input of external defense, adhere to the same defense of people, objects, and the environment, and strengthen the wearing of masks, temperature measurement, and health code inspection in public places.

On April 25, 2022, in the Cuigezhuang area of ​​Chaoyang District, Beijing, residents line up for nucleic acid testing.

(Visual China)

Before the publication of this article, the establishment of Fangcang shelter hospitals and the normalized nucleic acid response to the epidemic had been widely implemented in various places. However, when the word "permanent Fangcang shelter hospital" appeared for the first time, it still made people think about it. The general doubts of people are that : Will China's current "dynamic clearing" persist "permanently"?

How to calculate the economic account behind the establishment of a 15-minute walk for nucleic acid "sampling circle" and a permanent makeshift hospital?

Can China afford such a price?

These concerns are real, and the economic accounts behind the normalized testing mechanism are real money, but from another perspective, the implication of the so-called "permanent makeshift hospitals" is that China also admits that the virus will exist "permanently" It is impossible to be eliminated, and human beings will eventually have to "coexist with the virus", but unlike the "coexistence with the virus" in other countries and regions, China has made further prevention and treatment on the basis of recognizing the coexistence. The planning is also in response to China's own national conditions: a large population base, a large elderly population, a serious imbalance in the level of urban and rural medical care, and the virus is still mutating.

With new progress in drug development and more certainty of virus mutation, the "Chinese-style coexistence route" may reflect greater flexibility. After all, the establishment of such a normalized prevention and control mechanism consumes manpower, financial resources, material resources.

Whether this life account and the overall account are properly calculated can only be pushed backwards based on the final result, and no one can give an answer now.

On May 24, Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, commented bluntly, "If normalized nucleic acid can replace the city closure, why not support it?" In Hu Xijin's view, "normalized nucleic acid can screen out new ones. Infected people, help localities to implement precise policies and quickly cut off the infection chain, so as to prevent the virus from spreading invisibly on a large scale. When it is discovered, it can only be dealt with in a large area or even the whole city. The practice in many places now constitutes a normalized nucleic acid effect. The situation in Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other places is encouraging. If this method is proved to be able to achieve the expected epidemic prevention effect on a large scale, then it means that we have blazed a new path... Dynamic reset focuses on "dynamic" two Word, normalized nucleic acid is a new lever explored in the struggle against Omikron in various places. It is likely to make this "dynamic" stronger... Let's see if normalized nucleic acid can help our major cities build A barrier that does not cause large-scale infections and does not need to be forced to close the city again. If it is achieved, it will be a great success. If there are still major problems, I believe that localities will adjust themselves. We must always move forward, as long as we go. , you can step on a path.”

Although Hu Xijin has retired from the Global Times, his remarks continue to attract attention.

The picture shows a picture of Hu Xijin being interviewed during an event in Zhengzhou on May 23, 2017.

(Visual China)

Regarding the economic accounts that the normalized detection mechanism must face, Hu Xijin also talked about the flexibility in the later stage, "After the epidemic is basically controlled, the frequency of normalized nucleic acids can be reduced, the area of ​​development can also be reduced, and large cities need One test every two days and one test every three days. The current average implementation time is about five days. However, many small and medium-sized cities and rural areas with low risk of infection do not need to be so diligent. They can be tested once a week, every ten days, or even After research and judgment, stop testing, or change from general testing to random testing. In the end, the cost of normalizing nucleic acids across the country will definitely be much lower than the huge losses caused by the severe economic impact of the epidemic since March and April this year. "

The so-called "poor will change, change will make change, general rule will last", China is currently facing two severe pressures from both inside and outside, and is in a critical period of "poor will change": the external pressure is that when the world is opening up, it will adhere to the existing epidemic prevention policies China is isolating itself from the mainstream. Not only are Vietnam and India eager to replace China as the next world factory, but the United States has a new ready-made grip to contain China. Biden’s latest trip to Asia is the best illustration; The pressure is that the epidemic has entered its third year, and the entire society is exhausted. The resulting impact on the economy and people's livelihood is becoming an unbearable burden for more and more people, and Chinese society has become fragile and torn. Development is a small problem, a small development becomes a problem, and no development is a problem.” With the downward pressure on the economy significantly increasing, employment is sluggish, the number of unemployed has increased sharply, and small and medium-sized enterprises have entered a wave of closures, and “all problems” are becoming a reality.

In view of the CCP’s consistent governance philosophy and inertia, it is difficult for the “change” in this critical period to move from “dynamic clearing” to “coexistence with the virus”, but exploring and dynamically optimizing the “Chinese-style coexistence route” is a top priority. , the normalized detection mechanism that is currently being established can be regarded as the "two carriages" of this coexistence route, but it is not static. A more refined mechanism tests the comprehensive governance capabilities of the country and various places, and ultimately determines the Can China blaze a new path in epidemic prevention and control?

Before the outbreak in Shanghai, Zeng Guang, a member of the high-level expert group of the National Health Commission of China and the chief epidemiology scientist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, once published a text of more than 2,000 words on his personal Weibo, analyzing in detail "coexistence with the virus" There are two countermeasures with "dynamic clearing", and he admitted that China's "dynamic clearing" will not remain unchanged forever. In the near future, a roadmap of Chinese-style coexistence with the virus will be presented at a suitable time.

Such a timetable and roadmap are the key to boosting people's expectations and confidence, and they are also the source of "saving the economy at any cost".

What kind of signal does the 10,000 people meeting in China send out during this extraordinary period?

Will Beijing be the next Shanghai?

The pandemic has ripped apart the two basic consensuses on China's reconstruction, and at the most critical moment, Taiwan's coexistence line has calmed down anxiety: from the turmoil of the Taipei Book Fair's continuation, from Wang Yang, Liu He, to Li Keqiang, what signals did the two high-level meetings send?

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-05-27

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