On May 26, local time, US Secretary of State Blinken delivered a speech on China policy at George Washington University, systematically explaining the US China policy in the Biden era. The following judgments are the most critical and should arouse China's vigilance:
The first judgment is that Sino-US relations will definitely not get better in the future.
Although Blinken said that the United States "doesn't fight a new Cold War" and "doesn't seek to change China," he said in his speech that every move was a move used in the "Cold War", and its purpose was not only to change China, but also to reverse it. China's rising momentum completely eliminates the threat of China's rise to US hegemony.
For example, Blinken said, "We cannot rely on Beijing to change its trajectory," but "we will shape a strategic environment around Beijing that advances our vision of an open and inclusive international system." It can be smelled that Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the mainland's "Global Times" with strong nationalism, pierced this layer of window paper with one bite, saying that the United States is not going to build another NATO in Asia around China?
In fact, if you look a little deeper, you can find that the U.S. layout around China in East Asia is far more "technical" than NATO. NATO was a military organization established for the former Soviet Union, and later mainly for Russia, focusing on the field of military security. In addition to having a large number of troops stationed in South Korea and Japan in East Asia, the United States is also working hard to build a new "US-Japan-Australia-India Security Mechanism" at the security level, and has launched the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF) at the economic and technological level. , its suppression and containment of China is comprehensive and three-dimensional, which is also in line with Blinken's positioning of China's competitors in all fields in his speech.
In addition, Blinken also said in his speech that a "China Department" will be established within the U.S. State Department, a comprehensive team within the State Department to coordinate and implement U.S. policies. This "treatment" is even higher than that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
In addition, in the White House, Biden also established a group led by Campbell, also designed for China.
From the public level of media reports, the relevant national security agencies in the United States also have operational departments specifically targeting China.
It can be said that how to handle relations with China has become the most critical proposition of US foreign policy, including its relations with allies, and it is also around this goal.
Second, apart from being moderated in rhetoric and not being as aggressive as former Secretary of State Pompeo, Blinken's speech is no different from Pompeo's historic speech at the Nixon Library to change Sino-US relations, which once again shows that The long-term and continuous nature of U.S. policy toward China.
Although the United States is a two-party country, the two parties always turn sesame seeds back and forth, but once the main opponent is locked, there is often strong policy continuity, and the supervision and election competition between the two parties will continue to strengthen in one direction until it is contained or suppressed. Goals, from Pompeo's speech to Blinken's speech attested to that.
This means that the pressure China will face from the United States in the future will be long-term. No matter which party or who is the president in the future, there will be no room for turning around until the competition between the two countries is determined.
More importantly, Blinken made it clear in his speech that "China is the only country that has both the intention to reshape the international order and the growing economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do so." What does this sentence mean when the war in Ukraine is still going on and the United States is leading Europe to fight a "proxy war" with Russia with the help of Ukraine?
This shows that in the eyes of the political elites in the United States, China, not Russia, is the main opponent and the most dangerous enemy of the United States. It is a force that may threaten the hegemony of the United States and challenge the international status of the United States in various aspects.
So, don’t look at the fact that the U.S. and Russia are currently fighting in Ukraine, but after the war, the U.S.-Russian relationship actually has the possibility and room for improvement, but between China and the U.S., unless the outcome is decided, it is impossible to improve the relationship .
Third, the competition between China and the United States is a systematic competition. It is a competition between two national systems, two political systems and social culture. The fundamental decision of the outcome of the competition lies within the two countries, mainly to see which of the two countries is more capable Maintain the vitality of self-development and innovation, and make fewer or no disruptive mistakes.
It was said long ago in Sun Tzu's Art of War that when facing the enemy, we must "be invincible first, and wait for the enemy to be invincible." In fact, Blinken also revealed a similar idea in his speech.
Blinken boils down the US's China policy into three points: investment, alliance with allies, and competition. The two points of "investment" and "joint alliance" are means and fulcrums, serving the purpose of "competing" with China.
What is "investment", Blinken further attributed it to two aspects of politics and economy.
Politically, it means strengthening the democratic system of the United States and enhancing the competitiveness of the US system. Economically, it means investing in improving the infrastructure and industrial innovation capabilities of the United States, and enhancing the vitality of the US economy and society.
The enlightenment of this point for China is to continue to enhance its own institutional advantages, make up for its own institutional shortcomings, maintain the vitality of political, economic and social innovation, adhere to economic construction as the center, continuously enhance economic strength, improve people's living standards and technological innovation Ability must "be invincible first, and wait for the enemy to be victorious".
Fifth, the Taiwan issue.
Different from Biden's affirmative response to the reporter's "If China seizes Taiwan by force, the United States will defend Taiwan with military force" during his visit to Japan on the 23rd. Blinken said in his speech that "our one-China policy has not changed, the United States We remain committed to our one-China policy based on the Taiwan Relations Act, the three joint communiques and the six guarantees.” At the same time, Blinken also said that the United States opposes any unilateral change of the status quo by either side of the Taiwan Strait, and the United States does not support Taiwan’s independence and It is hoped that the cross-strait issue will be resolved through peaceful means.
In addition, Blinken also stated that according to the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining sufficient self-defense capabilities, as well as maintaining the United States' own capabilities to resist any resort to force or the use of other means of coercion that endangers the security of the people of Taiwan and the actions of the socio-economic system.
These are relatively old-fashioned descriptions. The United States has been talking about it for decades. There are two main differences. The first and biggest change is that the United States has put the Taiwan Relations Act first and put the three joint communiqués. In the second place, the content of the six guarantees to Taiwan has been added, which is the most critical; the second change is to assist Taiwan in defending and resisting the Chinese mainland to advance the completion of national reunification. is relatively rare.
This means that around Taiwan, the most deadly issue between China and the United States, the confrontation between the two countries will become more and more intense. Coupled with the internal political changes in Taiwan, the preparations for the completion of national reunification in mainland China have been steadily advanced, and there is a risk of war between the two sides of the strait. It will rise rapidly in the next few years. If there is a military conflict between China and the United States in the future, the biggest or even the only possibility is the Taiwan issue. In this regard, China, the United States, and Taiwan, including Japan, should be preparing for the final showdown.
Beijing's response to Blinken's China policy speech: Spreading false information to exaggerate China's threat
