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Ukraine war: oil embargo drama before the EU summit

2022-05-28T08:18:36.264Z


Hungary is blocking an EU oil embargo against Russia, and there is no solution in sight even a few days before the special summit in Brussels. Threats to Budapest are now even coming from Ukraine.


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EU Commission chief von der Leyen, Council President Michel

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OLIVIER HOSLET / AFP

When Ursula von der Leyen spoke in the Strasbourg European Parliament at the beginning of May, the oil embargo against Russia seemed almost a done deal.

The President of the European Commission admitted that some EU countries were “significantly” dependent on Russian oil, but then announced confidently: “We will phase out Russian crude oil supplies within six months and phase out refined products by the end of the year.”

Only three weeks later it is by no means clear whether this will happen.

Hungary, which is more dependent on Russian oil than almost any other country, continues to stubbornly block an embargo.

Only at the beginning of the week did right-wing head of government Viktor Orbán flatly refuse to discuss the topic at all at the special EU summit on Monday and Tuesday.

This would be "counterproductive" unless a compromise had been negotiated beforehand, Orbán wrote in a letter to von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel.

Admittedly, the summit agenda is Michel's business.

But should the Belgian allow the oil embargo to be discussed and Orbán block it with his veto, the EU would be at odds on the open stage.

It is probably not for nothing that there is not a word about a debate on sanctions in Michel's letter of invitation to the heads of state and government, which was published on Friday.

Orban needs money

Orbán is not completely alone in his resistance: Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria are also demanding longer transitional periods for the implementation of an import ban and, in addition, support for the construction of new pipelines worth billions.

But the Hungarian is currently under the most pressure.

On the one hand, Orbán urgently needs money after an expensive election campaign.

However, the Commission has been blocking Hungary's billions from the Corona reconstruction fund for months because of numerous concerns about the rule of law.

On top of that, the Commission has also linked its latest “REPowerEU” plan to free the EU from Russian energy dependency with the Corona Fund – which is why Hungary is not receiving any money from this pot for the time being either.

On the other hand, the political pressure on Orbán is growing.

At the latest since the federal government gave up its resistance to the EU oil embargo, the Hungarian has been the main obstacle to a delivery stop.

Orbán has already fallen out with his former closest allies in the EU, above all Poland.

Warsaw is now Budapest's "main antagonist," as a Brussels diplomat put it.

Threat from Kyiv: Hungary's oil pipeline "something could happen"

Particularly threatening for Orbán: Threats are now coming from Ukraine itself.

"Ukraine has a wonderful lever in its hands - the Druzhba oil pipeline," Olena Zerkal, a senior Ukrainian diplomat, said on Wednesday at the security forum in Kyiv.

The pipeline through which Russian oil flows to Hungary stretches around 600 kilometers across Ukrainian territory.

"Something could happen to her," whispered Zerkal.

"And I think it would be very fitting if something happened to her."

It was a thinly veiled threat to turn off Hungary's oil supply if necessary, garnished with accusations that Orbán was using Russia's war against Ukraine to blackmail the EU into giving him more money.

"Orbán is taking advantage of the situation," said Zerkal.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must decide whether he “wants to speak to Orbán in the language he understands”.

At least that doesn't seem impossible.

It was only on Thursday that Selenskyj asked himself in a video message why the embargo blockers in the EU were "allowed so much power, including over intra-European processes".

Orbán, it is said in Brussels, not without glee, should be concerned.

However, it is uncertain whether they will be big enough for Hungary to cave in at the last minute.

At a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday, a compromise was still a long way off, according to participants.

Another meeting is scheduled for Sunday to find a last-minute compromise.

This could include long transition periods for Hungary and other countries like Slovakia, of up to four years.

In addition, Hungary alone could get 800 million euros for the conversion of refineries and the expansion of pipelines.

Another proposal is to exempt oil from pipelines entirely from the embargo.

The advantage would be that you would not create a Lex Orbán, but could also help other EU countries without access to the sea.

The downside: around a third of EU oil imports from Russia would be exempt from the ban.

How useful is an embargo without China and India?

Nevertheless, such a proposal could ultimately find the approval of all EU countries.

Because the alternative – forgoing an oil embargo for the time being and accommodating it in a seventh package of sanctions – does not seem very tempting.

Once the oil is taken out, a diplomat says, it could be difficult to ever get it back in.

Above all, the question looms as to whether an EU oil embargo would make any sense at all, unless all the major economic powers in the world go along with it.

But it doesn't look like that.

In addition to the EU, the USA have also tried in vain to convince countries such as China, India and Brazil.

It is now considered unthinkable that the USA and the EU could also impose sanctions on them - not least because of massive concerns from Germany.

Some people in Brussels fear that Putin could simply have his tankers moored somewhere else in future - and possibly sell his oil even more profitably than before thanks to higher world market prices.

When the heads of state and government meet in Brussels on Monday, it could happen that Zelenskyj takes it upon himself to say what he thinks of their aid efforts.

If there is no solution to the oil embargo dispute, there should not be good grades.

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2022-05-28

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