Conflict with China: Would the US really stand by Taiwan – and risk nuclear war?

Created: 05/29/2022, 06:27

By: Sven Hauberg

Taiwanese soldier at a military exercise in early January as the island braces against a possible Chinese invasion.

© Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto/Imago

According to US President Joe Biden, the US is obliged to stand by Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Experts see the danger of a nuclear escalation.

Munich/Washington/Beijing – The press conference was almost over when Joe Biden surprised the world public with a confession.

The US President was in Tokyo to discuss the many world crises with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and other leaders when he was asked about his position on Taiwan in front of media representatives on Monday (May 23).

If Russia gets through with its war of aggression on Ukraine, Biden said – “what signal does that send to China?” The Chinese have been threatening Taiwan for a long time, “they are already flirting with the danger”.

The one-China principle, which he supports, does not mean that China has the right to take Taiwan by force, the 79-year-old said.

A journalist then asked whether he was prepared to defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese attack.

"Yes," Biden replied, and when asked by the reporter if he was serious, he said, "It's a commitment we've made."

China policy of the USA: Biden has already made a similar statement

The US should be obliged to intervene militarily if Beijing orders the storming of Taiwan - really?

Biden made similar statements twice last October.

His statements did not make big waves at the time.

However, that was before the escalation of the Ukraine war - which made it painfully clear that the idea that one country could conquer another country and want to incorporate it is not so far-fetched.

Biden's Taiwan commitment received a lot of attention this time.

However, the obligation that Biden spoke of does not exist.

The US broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 and has since recognized the government in Beijing.

They regard the democratically governed Taiwan as part of their own national territory and have been threatening military conquest for years.

However, the USA has not completely abandoned Taiwan either: in the so-called "Taiwan Relations Act" Washington has committed itself to supporting the government in Taipei with arms deliveries. There are also diverse, albeit informal, relationships between the governments of the two countries.

Direct intervention by the USA, for example with its own troops, is not planned.

China has hundreds of nuclear warheads and counting

The fact that Biden is now talking about it is of course a signal to Beijing: the US President tells the Chinese that an invasion would not remain without consequences – see Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

In the direction of Taiwan, however, Biden is sending a message that is not so easy to decipher.

Because up to now it has actually been the declared strategy of the Americans to remain as vague as possible and not to specify exactly how Taiwan would be supported in the event of a Chinese invasion.

The government in Taipei should also be prevented from unilaterally declaring independence from China and thus provoking an attack.

Is that no longer the case?

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Shortly after Biden's appearance in Tokyo, the White House tried to put the president's statements into perspective.

An official said US policy toward Taiwan will not change.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Biden's comment "underscores our commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act to help Taiwan defend itself."

Nor did Foreign Minister Antony Blinken repeat Biden's commitment in his keynote speech on America's China policy on Thursday.

Analyst Yun Sun of the US think tank Stimson Center believes that “no one in Washington today can imagine the US standing by and standing by while China attacks Taiwan.

Such a move would go against the long-term US baseline that a 'peaceful settlement' of the Taiwan issue is necessary.

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The USA is currently supporting the government there with arms deliveries, but also with military reconnaissance.

In turn, they want to weaken Russia with sanctions.

So far, however, Biden has always rejected direct military intervention.

After all, Russia is a nuclear power, and "the idea that we're going to send attack material and use planes, tanks and trains with American pilots and American crews" - that, according to Biden, "is called World War III".

But not only Russia has nuclear weapons;

China is also a nuclear power and, according to estimates, has over 350 warheads, and the trend is rising sharply.

The US Department of Defense believes that Beijing could have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

Video: In Taiwan invasion - Biden threatens China with military action

China and the USA: The risk of an unwanted escalation is increasing

"Should China attempt to invade Taiwan by force, and should the United States come to Taipei's aid, the risk of escalation could surpass even the current unnerving situation in Europe," write arms experts Stacie L. Pettyjohn and Becca Wasser of the Center for a New American Security, a US think tank.

"A standoff between China and the United States could very well turn nuclear," they say -- but not on the scale that analysts had feared for a Cold War war between the US and the Soviet Union.

"However, in a confrontation over Taiwan, Beijing could use nuclear weapons on a more limited scale to signal resolve or improve its chances of victory on the battlefield," Pettyjohn and Wasser said.

However, it seems unlikely that the situation will escalate in the near future.

According to experts, Taiwan could still win a war against China.

The Ukraine war also shows that a victory for the supposed superiority cannot be taken for granted.

A strategy of asymmetric warfare, in which a small army can hold a larger one in check with precision attacks and higher mobility, is also currently being discussed in Taipei and Washington.

report

according to those responsible in Taiwan to equip themselves with appropriate weapons from US production.

Taiwan's President Tsai Ying-wen has already signaled the acquisition of a large number of mobile, deadly weapons that are difficult to target and counter.

However, there is still a dispute about which weapon systems should be purchased.

But even if a Chinese attack on Taiwan is currently unlikely, analysts say there is a risk of an unwanted escalation.

Both Chinese and US warships and fighter planes are in the region, and they keep getting dangerously close to each other.

"Should there be a major incident at sea or in the air in disputed areas," says a report by the think tank Crisis Group, "tensions could rise quickly." Because then politicians on both sides could feel compelled by domestic political pressure , "taking a tough, escalating public stance that reduces the scope for one-on-one understanding."

To prevent this, both sides would have to keep channels of communication open,

China and Taiwan: Economic integration could prevent invasion

That such a scenario is not entirely improbable was shown two years ago when reports circulated in China about an allegedly imminent US attack on Chinese outposts on the disputed Spratly Islands.

The speculation about this so-called "October surprise attack" was fueled by verbal attacks from Beijing and Washington.

"The incident illustrates that the two governments can fundamentally misunderstand each other's intentions," the Crisis Group report said.

Even then, however, fast and decisive communication was able to prevent worse things from happening.

According to China expert Pamela Kennedy from the Stimson Center, something else could be more important for Taiwan than Joe Biden's (later put into perspective) defense promise: the island's economic integration with the United States and its allies.

On his trip to Asia earlier in the week, Biden made a new push to become more economically involved in the region again.

Taiwan is not part of the new framework agreement for economic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region (IPEF), which twelve other countries have joined in addition to the USA.

But China isn't there either - which in turn could make Taiwan's accession possible in the near future.

"Despite Taiwan's exclusion from IPEF, the United States and other partners have made efforts

And it is precisely this increased integration of Taiwan with the West that could make China shy away from conquering the country militarily.

“The message that the Biden administration wants to send is not a policy change, but a warning to deter China,” Kennedy said: A Chinese attack “could draw condemnation from the international community, as did the Russian invasion in the United States Ukraine has done".

The fear of sanctions, so the calculation, could deter Beijing from its plans.

Because the lack of diplomatic relations between Taipei and most Western governments would be compensated for by strong economic ties.

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"In the face of challenges from Beijing, Taipei will be strengthened by its ability to develop deep, strong and enduring partnerships with key countries around the world," said foreign policy expert Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution think tank.

"These partnerships are often nourished by shared democratic values, but they are essentially driven by shared interests."

In Beijing, however, people think in completely different categories when it comes to Taiwan.

On the one hand there is the geopolitical component: China sees itself surrounded on its coasts by allies of the USA - by countries like South Korea, Japan or Malaysia.

Should Taiwan become Chinese, this chain would be broken at a crucial point.

This would create a huge corridor on China's east coast, which would lead through the Pacific to the US west coast.

Above all, the Taiwan issue has always been a matter of national pride for Beijing.

Incorporating the island, which was never part of the People's Republic, is on every Chinese president's agenda.

Xi Jinping also dreams of making this vision a reality.

In the fall he wants to be appointed for a third term. Then he would have another five years

to put these plans into action.

And by then, another government could be in office in the US long ago - one that doesn't care about the fate of Taiwan.