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Evening mood in Berlin in May 2022
Photo: Dirk Sattler / IMAGO
I left Moscow in the first days of the war, like most of my friends.
Back then, three months ago, we were discussing who was trying to settle where – and it looked like Berlin was going to be the new capital of Russian emigration.
But now that three months have passed, everything has changed.
The German authorities have still not clarified their attitude towards the wave of newly emigrated Russians, they have not issued a single residence permit - and the scene of emigrants has changed: Berlin will not become the capital of "European Russia" - yes, obviously these Russian émigrés will obviously have no capital at all.
How this came about can be told in a dry and distanced manner: in early March, almost immediately after the outbreak of the war against Ukraine, a large part of the Russian middle class left the country in a hurry.
There was a particularly massive and panicked exodus in the first week of March – everyone was expecting Putin to close the borders at the time, so we had to catch the last plane.
The price for an economy class ticket to Istanbul or Dubai was up to 5000 euros.
We have traveled in all directions – where planes used to fly.
Many older and wealthy intellectuals flew to Tel Aviv, the wealthiest IT specialists to Dubai, medium-sized business people to Yerevan or Almaty - and many journalists settled temporarily in Tbilisi.
Rough estimates assume that up to a million people left the country at the time.
The first emigrants soon returned home
We spent the first month in a depression, discussing the fact that fascism had taken root in Russia - and that only a clear military victory could save Ukraine.
The second month brought the realization that the war would last a very long time.
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Gradually, some emigrants began to return home: in Russia there are no terrible repressions, only selective ones - which means that they can go home, complete their deals, sell their apartment or car and think about their future life.
As a rule, these people do not recognize the country they left when they return.
Not because it's covered in Zs - no, you can hardly see any.
But because it has sunk into a total depression.
Most of those who left the country began planning to move to the European Union, if only because you never know if Turkey, Armenia and Georgia are safe and if the authorities in those countries will not allow Russian citizens to theirs Would extradite home - if the regime so demands.
Almost everyone wanted to go to Germany: Many cultural paths in Russia have always converged in Berlin.
Most importantly, many of this new wave of Russian émigrés believed they could be useful in Germany.
Germany has a large Russian-speaking diaspora – around 3 million people.
These are mainly people who came here in the 1990s and settled down here, but have not stopped watching Russian TV channels.
Interestingly, in recent years, many of them have been influenced by Russian propaganda no less than people living in Russia.
Some even held rallies in support of Putin and the war in Ukraine.
Independent Russian media wanted to move to Berlin
This Russian-speaking diaspora has a strikingly different attitude from the new emigres - those who fled the war hate Putin and support Ukraine.
The journalists who left Russia wanted to move to Germany and were faced with a double task: they wanted to reach their compatriots who stayed at home, but also the Russian-speaking Germans who, since the beginning of the war, have not been able to watch their usual Russian propaganda television channels, which are now blocked.
Almost all major independent Russian media outlets were talking about moving to Berlin: the Dozhd TV channel, Mediazona and even the Riga-based editorial board of Meduza.
Also in Berlin is the OstWest TV station, which is essentially the only independent Russian news channel in the world.
However, the third month brought clarity.
The major Russian opposition media have realized that Germany is in no hurry to help Russian immigrants: the government has not made a fundamental decision on this, and not a single work visa has been issued.
For the heads of independent media who have come to Germany, it is now clear: solving their residence problems is not a priority and the German bureaucracy is not ready to help Russian dissidents and journalists quickly.
For example, the TV station Dozhd has already reoriented to Riga and Amsterdam.
Another popular destination is Vilnius, which is becoming a hub for Russian opposition figures and human rights activists;
Alexej Navalny's team works there, for example.
(Navalny himself was transferred to a maximum-security penal colony last week – news of the war in Ukraine has eclipsed his personal story for international audiences).
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The desire of Russian emigrants to go to Germany has diminished.
The TV station OstWest will grow for the three million Russian-speaking inhabitants of Germany: It recently received the sponsorship award from the German National Foundation and will also create a second channel: OstWest24.
But this Germany-based broadcaster also has major problems obtaining work visas for future employees.
As obtaining work visas, opening bank accounts and renting apartments has become a nightmare for thousands of Russian refugees, a group of Russian opposition activists took an unexpected initiative last week.
At a conference in Vilnius, former world chess champion Garry Kasparov, former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky and several other prominent activists announced the establishment of a "Russian Action Committee" to negotiate with Western governments on behalf of Russian emigrants.
A passport for »good Russians«?
In addition, they want to issue some kind of document (somewhat flippantly dubbed “the good Russian passport” on social media) — a sort of ID card designed to help emigrants from Russia open accounts or get visas.
To get such a "good Russian passport" one would have to sign a declaration declaring Putin a criminal and Ukraine an indivisible country.
Kasparov even said he held talks with Polish, Lithuanian and Romanian authorities about recognizing the document.
He compared Russia to a divided Korea: it's partially behind a wall, like North Korea, meaning the opposition's goal is to at least create a virtual South Korea and issue passports to that country.
The idea of issuing "Good Russians" passports has sparked a storm of indignation among Russian citizens themselves.
Especially among those who stayed in the country (because Garry Kasparov, among other things, carelessly said that by doing so they automatically became accomplices of the Putin regime).
But many of the new emigrants are no less outraged.
First, they find the phrase "good Russians" offensive (the authors of the initiative claim that it is an interpretation of journalists and not theirs).
Second, the emigrants wonder why Kasparov and Co. took on the role of government-in-exile - who elected and empowered them?
Above all, nobody believes anymore that the European governments are interested in the Russians who have emigrated and want to help them.
Three months of war have passed and we can definitely say that the results of this war are contradictory.
Putin has been losing in Ukraine so far.
Thank God the whole world is helping her: with weapons and with moral support.
And hopefully Ukraine will continue to win.
But there is another war that Putin is waging against Russian society.
And in this war so far he is the absolute winner.
His opponents are broken within the country and terribly divided outside the country.
They have no outside support and cannot yet help themselves.
And almost all of us are aware that it is Russian society that must eventually defeat Putinism – and that we cannot put all the responsibility on Ukraine alone.
